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Thursday March 14, 2013 - 03:34:36 GMT
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Morning Briefing : 14-Mar-2013 -0332 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Despite the very good US Retail Sales data yesterday, the Dow (14455.28, +5.22, +0.04%) managed only a very meagre gain. It appears vulnerable to some profit booking after a good rally from 13800 levels.

A-Pac is mostly in the red with Australia (5060, -0.87%), Hang Seng (22393, -0.72%) and Taiwan (7974.40, -0.26%). Australia Lab Force (MoM) has come in better than expected at 71.5K against expected of 9.5K.

Shanghai (2263.39, -0.03%) is flat after dipping below 2300. Has some support at 2250, it can either trade in the 2250-2350 range or can even see deeper correction if it breaks 2250.

Nikkei (12265.87, +0.21%) is trading higher today after dipping for a couple of days. It has seen a good rally and some profit taking is acceptable. Support is seen near 12000-11900 levels.

Nifty (5851.20, -1.06%) has dipped sharply in the past 2 days. It might see further down side towards 5750 which is its trend line support on the weekly line charts.


COMMODITIES
Nymex is looking better than Brent, which can weaken further. Gold and Silver are ranged in the near term. Copper is at an important support.

Nymex Crude (92.35, -0.18%) has risen from an important support of 89 in the past few days. But the weakness in Brent is a bit worrying. Brent (108.32, -0.18%) has broken its important support at 109 and can see further fall towards 105.

Gold (1585.90, -0.16%) is trading in the 1560-1600 range in the near term. The longer term dip towards 1520 is still a possibility while below 1615.

Silver (28.81, -0.51%) is trading in the 28-29.50 rage in the near term. A break of the range on the down side can be bad for Silver as it can then see a fall towards 26.50-00.

Copper (3.52, -0.06%) continues to trade near its support of 3.50, which will decide which way the commodity goes.


CURRENCIES
We mentioned this a few days ago. Its been a very very long time but the Dollar is seen to be reacting positively to good US economic news. US Retail Sales (+1.1% M/m against our expectation of +0.87%) is cited as reason for the drop in the Euro (1.2965) to a low of 1.2923 yesterday. The Dollar Index (82.92) is trying to break previous resistance near 82.80 and will target 83.85 if successful. That could weaken the Euro further.

Dollar-Yen (95.82) is stabilising, finding some Support near 95.50 yesterday. Deeper Support is available at 95.00 also. The Euro-Yen (124.19) has come down to Support near 124.05. Further Support is seen near 123.40-20. A fresh upmove could start soon.

The Pound (1.4950) has moved up well over the last couple of days and can rise further to test 1.4995 today. Fresh selling might come in there. Dollar-Swiss (0.9522) rose strongly yesterday alongwith the fall in the Euro and can target 0.9690 over the rest of the month.

The Aussie (1.0372) has risen further today as the Australian Labour Force data has come in much better than expected. This lessens the gloom around Australia. There is some Resistance near 1.04 now, but the rally has given rise to hopes of seeing further upmove towards 1.05.

Dollar-Rupee rose well from 54.00 yesterday to close near 54.30-31 and is likely to test 54.45 today.


INTEREST RATES
The yield spread between Germany and USA (2 Yr -0.20%, 10-Yr -0.55%) look like they can fall further in favour of the Dollar, pushing the Euro lower. The USA-Japan yield spread (10-Yr 1.4%) continues to inch up in favour of the Dollar and can target 1.50% in the coming weeks, pushing Dollar-Yen higher.

The Spain-Germany 10-Yr Spread (3.29%) has increased a little bit from 3.24% on Monday. The Italian 10-Yr (4.67%) is also trading higher, up from 4.6% last Friday.

The India WPI figure is to be released tomorrow. After a high CPI on Tuesday, the market will want to see if there is a dip like last month to 6.62%. That will be very important for the upcoming RBI Meeting next Tuesday where a rate cut is ardently hoped for.


DATA TODAY
0:30 or 6:00 Australia Labour Force
...Expected 10.70 K ...Previous 10.40 K

5:30 or 11:00 IN WPI
...Expected 6.62 %

8:30 or 14:00 SNB Meeting
...Expected < 0.25 % ...Previous < 0.25%

12:30 or 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
...Expected 0.20 % ...Previous 0.22 %

12:30 or 18:00 US PPI ex Food & Energy (YoY)
...Expected 1.80 % ...Previous 1.77 %

12:30 or 18:00 US Current Account Balance
...Expected -111.00 $ Bln ...Previous -107.51 $ Bln

 

DATA YESTERDAY

EU IND Prodn (MoM)
...Actual -0.40 % ...Previous 0.91 %

EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Actual -2.08 % ...Previous 0.81 %

US Retail Sales (MoM)
...Actual 1.10 % ...Previous 0.33 %

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Mon 20 Nov
14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
15:00 US- Leading Indicators
Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
Thu 23 Nov
US/JP- Holiday
All Day flash PMIs
13:30 CA- Retail Sales
Fri 24 Nov
All Day flash PMIs
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
US- Early Closes

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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