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Friday July 15, 2005 - 11:47:40 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• EUR-USD gives up initial European strength - weakness likely if US data releases today and Monday reveal no bad news.

• GBP likely to remain soft ahead of MPC minutes, although there is an outside chance that market expectations about a clear rate cut signal are not fulfilled.

• USD-TRY testing the downside.

• US data features today – PPI, NY Fed index, industrial output, business sales/inventories and Michigan sentiment.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD was strong for much of the European morning, but a failure to push beyond the mid-1.2130s (there was talk of anoption defence ahead of 1.2140) eventually gave way to liquidations. The initial resilience in EUR-USD today and yesterday perhaps reflects a feeling in the market that the corrective move is not yet over and done with.1.2140-60 should continue cap EUR-USD strength today unless there is anything weak on show in today’s US data. As long as Monday’s TIC data is OK (i.e. more than a $50bn net inflow) EUR-USD is likely to start testing lower once again. Monday’s low at 1.1957 will probably need to break to suggest that a fresh test lower is the making, although below 1.2000 would also be a negative signal. The immediate level of interest is the 1.2053 low from Tuesday - approached twice yesterday.

GBP is likely to retain some vulnerability ahead of Wednesday’s MPC minutes, with the market strongly anticipating a signal about an August rate cut. However, it has now got to a stage where an August cut is so discounted that GBP may actually bounce back if the minutes fail to send a clear message that fully satisfies market expectations.

Also watch out for USD-TRY, which this morning was making a more definitive attempt to break below 1.33. Earlier this weekthe authorities said that there was no more scope for rate cuts and this may encourage the TRY bulls even further. There have been plenty of possible reasons for the TRY to weaken over the past couple of months but it has remained resilient and there is a risk of a move lower in USD-TRY in the next few days. A close around these levels today would make it the lowest weekly close since March.

Day Ahead
US – more US data today, with PPI, the NY Fed index, business inventories and sales, industrial output and Michigan sentiment all due. PPI should confirm the more subdued price backdrop, while the biggest uncertainty possibly lies with the NY Fed index. This and its Philly Fed equivalent have been a little choppy in recent months, conveying unclear signals about the state of the manufacturing sector. What is clear from averaging out the performances in these indices and by observing the fall in the manufacturing ISM is that activity has tailed off somewhat. However, for now at least this has not turned into anything too dramatic and the market is already taking the view that this ‘soft spot’ has come to an end. For this thesis to hold both NY and Philly Fed indices (the latter out next week) will need to show decent positive readings i.e. more than +5. Industrial output is also due and the manufacturing component in this series was better last month (+0.6% m/m for May) after the modest declines seen in April (-0.1%) and March (-0.2%). Business sales and inventories were previewed in yesterday’s Daily, when it is in fact out today. As noted yesterday, the sales/inventories mix (rising inventories and rising sales) has been favourable in recent months. Michigan sentiment may give up some of the strength recorded last month, given the further rise in fuel prices, but market impact from that should be limited.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

US PPI (Jun) m/m 08.30 +0.4%
US PPI core (Jun) m/m 08.30 +0.1%
US NY Fed index (Jul) 08.30 +10.0
US Business inventories (May) m/m 08.30 +0.2%
US Business sales (May) m/m 08.30 +1.2% last
US Ind prod (Jun) m/m 09.15 +0.4%
US Capacity utilisation (Jun) 09.15 79.6%
US Michigan sentiment (Jul, prel) 09.45 95.0

Latest data Actual Consensus*
NO Trade balance (Jun) NOK18.9bn NOK24bn
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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