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Friday March 15, 2013 - 10:44:22 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Portugal passes 7th Troika review and gets an extra year to 2015 to meet 3.0% budget deficit to GDP target; Italian Parliament reconvenes

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Portugal passes 7th Troika review and gets an extra year to 2015 to meet 3.0% budget deficit to GDP target; Italian Parliament reconvenes
Fri, 15 Mar 2013 6:14 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Japan: Upper House approves all three BoJ nominations and begin term on Wed, March 20th ; Nikkei225 Index hits a four-and-a-half year high)
- Japan Cabinet Office: raises economic assessment for third consecutive month (in-line with press reports)
- EU summit debates austerity vs. social crisis; Leaders reaffirm overall crisis strategy and focus should on structural targets not nominal targets
- Italy parliament convenes today seeking political gridlock exit.
- Fed 's Capital Analysis Review: fully approves 14 of 18 banks' capital plans; Ally Financial rejected on quantitative and qualitative grounds; BB&T rejected on qualitative objections; JPM and GS to resubmit plans by Sept 30 due to concerns over loss estimates
- Italy Jan General Government Debt: 2.023T (record high)
- Portugal passes 7th Troika review and gets an extra year to achieve deficit target of 3.0% by 2015


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) left Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.25% as expected
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Mar 11th (RUB): No est v 7.40T prior
- (SG) Singapore Jan Retail Sales M/M: -1.1 4% v +1.7%e; Y/Y: -2.0% v -0.1%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto Y/Y: -4.09% v -0.4% prior
- (PH) Philippines Jan Overseas Workers Remittances: $1.7B v $1.7Be; Y/Y: 8.0% v 10.1%e
- (CZ) Czech Feb PPI (Industrial) M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e
- (CZ) Czech Jan Industrial Output Y/Y: -4.1% v -4.2%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -9.3 v -19.4% prior
- (DK) Denmark Feb Wholesale Prices M/M: +0.5% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.6% prior
- (ES) Spain Q4 House Prices ToT Homes Q/Q: -1.4% v -3.8% prior; Y/Y: -12.8 v -15.2% prior
- (ES) Spain Q4 Labour Costs Y/Y: -3.2% v -0.1% prior
- (FI) Finland Jan Current Account: -430M v -620M prior
- (TR) Turkey Dec Unemployment Rate: 10.1% v 10.1%e
- (EU) ECB: 17M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 197M prior; 117.8B parked in deposit facility vs. 112.9B prior
- (CH) Swiss Feb Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.3%e
- (NL) Netherlands Jan Industrial Production M/M: -4.7% v -2.0%; Y/Y: -3.0% v 2.0%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: +0.1% v -4.2% prior
- (NO) Norway Feb Trade Balance (NOK): 33.7B v 33.5B prior
- (AT) Austria Feb Consumer Price Index M/M: +0.3% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.7% prior
- (IT) Bank of Italy Jan. Public Finance Supplement: General Government Debt: 2.023T (record high) v 1.988T prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3%e

- (EU) Euro Zone Q4 Euro-Zone Labour Costs Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.8% prior

Fixed Income:
(ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in I/L 2025, 2038 and 2050 Bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 -0.20% at 6,514,
DAX -0.10% at 8,048, CAC-40 -0.50% at 3,851, IBEX-35 -0.60% at 8,603, FTSE MIB +0.10% at 16,152, SMI flat at 7,845, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,554

- European equity markets are trading mixed, in line with the trend seen in Asia, as the US Dow hit another record high on Thursday's session. Spain's IBEX-35 has underperformed, while the German DAX traded at a fresh multi-year high earlier during the session, despite losses in shares of Commerzbank. According to dealers, the FTSE 100 could see increased volatility later during the session due to options expirations. European banks are mixed. Shares of Commerzbank have continued to underperform, while outperformers including Barclays and Unicredit (due to report Q4/FY earnings later today).Resource related shares are mostly higher, tracking gains in oil and copper prices.

- UK movers [Ocado +7% (possible short covering), IAG +2.5% (broker commentary), JD Wetherspoon +1.5% (H1 SSS +6.9%), Redrow +1.5% (broker commentary), Aggreko +1% (broker commentary); Bwin Party -5.5% (FY sales declined y/y), G4S -1% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [K+S +2% (broker commentary), MunichRe +1% (broker commentary); Volkswagen -1.5% (placement of preferred shares), HannoverRe -1.5% (broker commentary), Commerzbank -1% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Bouygues +4.5% (favorable regulatory ruling in France); Ingenico -3.5% (share placement), Vivendi -2.5% (concerns related to sale of GVT), Carrefour -1% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Lindt -1.5% (FY profits below ests)]

Speakers:
- Portugal Fin Min Gaspar confirmed that the country passed it 7th Trokia review and given an extra year to achieve deficit target of 3.0% in 2015
(in line with press speculation). He noted that 2012 Budget Deficit to GDP was 4.9% vs. 4.5% target (**Note: was 6.0% without one-offs) and had to make permanent spending cuts worth 2.5% of GDP in 2013-15 period
- German Fin Min Schaeuble commented that banks needed enough capital to be crisis-proof and minimize contagion risk. He added that markets must be kept stable with risks mitigated and that the German short-selling ban was successful. He believed that the Liikanen Report on ring-fencing was the sensible way to go
- Austria Chancellor Faymann noted that some decision on Cyprus was possible by later today, but total problem could not be fixed overnight, Cyprus was still a long way away from a proper rule of law
- S&P sovereign analyst Kin Eng Tan commented that a weak Yen could reach point to detract from Japan's sovereign rating. Investors could withdraw from JPY-denominated assets and Japanese interest rates could rise significantly
- Taiwan Central Bank commented that inflationary pressures to ease on softer energy and commodity prices and believed that market liquidities were still abundant for economic activities. It noted that private consumption seen gradually recovering with private investment buoyed by chipmakers. It also noted that it might take steps to keep the TWD currency stable as global hot money has overtaken fundamentals in determining the direction of the currency and stock markets in the region
- Outgoing BoJ Shirakawa commented that actions were needed by various authorities to end deflation quickly and that the BOJ would ease to reach price stability target
- Japan PM Abe confirmed his country's participation in Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks
- Fitch released its Quarterly Global Economic which noted that the global economy was lagging financial recovery;Fitch its cut 2013 and 2014 global growth outlook. Cut 2013 global growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.4% prior and trimmed 2014 global growth forecast to 2.8% from 2.9% prior

Currencies:
- Italian Parliament began its inaugural session today
with FX participants keeping a close eye on the session when both chambers will vote for leaders. The real test will come early next week when on Tuesday, Mar 19th President Napolitano will open discussions to try to form a new coalition govt
- The GBP currency continued its short-covering rally after BOE's King commented on Thursday that the GBP currency was broadly stable and was not looking to push the pound down. The GBP/USD moved above the 1.5150 level ahead of the NY morning.
- The EUR/USD regained a foothold back above the 1.30 handle after Thursday unsuccessful attempt to break below the 200-day moving average of 1.2866. The low on Thursday was only 1.2910.
- The USD/JPY remains just off trend high after the Japanese Upper House formally approved all three BOJ nominees.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Germany Chancellor Merkel: EU summit will focus on lowering unemployment and boosting growth; there will be no discussions of Cyprus issues
- (EU) Spain PM Rajoy: Will push for EU banking and political union and growth measures at the EU summit
- (EU) Former EU Commission Chief Prodi: European austerity measures have been excessive; Euro currency is too high and stronger than needed
- (GR) Greece govt close to agreeing to layoff 5,000 civil servants (20% of total hired) by the end of 2014 in order to meet troika demands - ekathimerini
- (IT) Italy PM Monti: To ask EU for more budget flexibility
- (ES) Spain to pass tougher laws on early retirement - Spanish press
- BOE's King: GBP is broadly stable; BOE not looking to push the pound down
- (US) Treasury Sec Lew: Not concerned about any market bubbles; Reiterates a strong dollar is in the best interest of America.
-(US) Federal Reserve releases results of Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR): 14 of 18 capital plans are approved; JPM and GS need to resubmit capital plans by Sept 30; Ally and BB&T rejected
- (US) Former Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Hildebrand: Conditions are broadly supportive of USD in the new few years
-(JP) Japan House of Councillors (upper house) confirms Kuroda as next BoJ Gov, Iwata and Nakaso as next BoJ Dep Govs
-(JP) Former Japan MoF official Sakakibara 'Mr Yen': Difficult for USD/JPY to trade about 100; CPI will never reach 2% target - financial press interview; Believes USD/JPY has stabilized; Comeback of US economy is 'real' this time; comeback to continue in coming 2-3 years; USD to continue very strong vs other currencies.
-(JP) Survey of economists find BoJ will not achieve 2% target within next BoJ gov's 5-yr term - financial press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to purchase Mar 2015 and Apr 2015 BTPs along with 3 CCTs
- (PE) Peru Feb Unemployment Rate: 6.5%e v 6.1% prior
- (PE) Peru Jan Economic Activity Index Y/Y: 6.3%e v 4.3% prior
- 06:30 (IT) Italian Senate reconvenes
- 07:00 (UK) BOE member Dale
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Inflation: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior
- 07:00 (EU) ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 07:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 07:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Jan Economic Activity Index M/M: 0.8%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.5%e v 1.2% prior
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Mar 15th: No est v $ prior
- 08:00 (IS) Israel Feb Consumer Prices M/M: 0.0%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.5% prior
- 08:00 (IC) Iceland Feb Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.5% prior
- 08:10 (SE) Sweden Fin Min Borg
- 08:30 (US) Mar Empire Manufacturing: 10.00e v 10.04 prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.9%e v 1.6% prior

- 08:30 (US) Feb CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.9% prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb CPI NSA: 232.102e v 230.28 prior; CPI Core Index SA: 232.482e v 232.108 prior
- 09:00 (US) Jan Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $25.2B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: $40.0Be v $64.2B prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Feb Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v 1.3% prior
- 09:15 (US) Feb Industrial Production: +0.4%e v -0.1% prior; Capacity Utilization: 79.4%e v 79.1% prior; Manufacturing Production: +0.5%e v -0.4% prior
- 09:30 (US) Fed's Fisher speaks on Too Big To Fail in National Harbor, MD
- 09:55 (US) Mar Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 78.0e v 77.6 prior
- 10:00 (PL) Poland Feb YTD Budget Leve (PLN): No est v -8.4B prior; Budget Performance: No est v 23.7% prior
- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Jan Trade Balance: No est v -738.1M prior
- 10:30 (EU) EU's Rehn speaks at GMF Conference in Brussels
- 11:00 (PT) Portugal Fin Min Gaspar with bailout secretary Moedas in Parliament
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.75-5.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (EU) Euro Area Finance Minister meet on Cyprus bailout
- 12:15 (EU)EU President Van Rompuy speaks at GMF Conference
- 13:30 (EU) France's Fabius speaks at GMF Conference in Brussels
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Q4 Quarterly GDP: 1.9%e v 0.7% prior
- 18:00 (ZM) Zimbabwe holds referendum on New Constitution
- (RU) Russia President Putin meets Belarus President Lukashenko in St. Petersburg

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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