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Cyprus stuns markets by confiscating bank deposits to bail out banks. Active week in store for data
|Cyprus stuns markets by confiscating bank deposits to bail out banks. Active week in store for data|
18 March 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: No Major Data. Europe: EZ- Trade. North America: US- NAHB Index
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: No Major Data
- European elites threw the financial markets a curve over the weekend when they forced Cypriot banks to confiscate ("solidarity levy") 6.75% of deposits under EUR100,000 and 9.9% of bank deposits above that amount before banks reopen on Tuesday. Needless to say this has caused a run on ATMs and cast a pall over the entire European banking system as depositors do not know what other arbitrary actions of this type might be coming next.
- It will be interesting to see how this action impacts depositors in other Euro-zone banks on Monday now that this precedent has been set. This is not good for confidence in the EUR..
- Otherwise there has been growing evidence that the U.S. economy is on an improving track. When we look at economic trends we always are looking for confirmation from as wide a range of statistics as possible. One key to the U.S. economy is jobs, and we are seeing two constructive patterns with layoffs waning and signs that hiring has been picking up. When these patterns become entrenched they are hard to change.
- The third week of the month sees critical sentiment data from Germany with the ZEW (Tuesday) and IFO (Friday) Surveys set for release. Recall that Germany is the core economy of Europe. Flash PMIs are also slated.
- Wednesday sees a Fed meeting and a Bernanke Press Conference. The hope is for some clarification on future Fed policies.
- CALENDAR NOTE. All future Fed policy decisions will be released at 2:00 PM Eastern U.S. time and the Bernanke press conferences will start at 2:30 PM..
- The next key U.S. budget date is March 27 when the government's current funding authority runs out.
||JGB 0.63% 0bp
||Bund 1.46% -1bp
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John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release
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