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Tuesday March 19, 2013 - 07:00:45 GMT
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| | Email Asian Market Update: Risk-off recedes as markets reconsider the Cyprus panic; PBoC amps up liquidity drain***Economic Data*** - Source

DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: +6.3% V -4.8%E; YTD ACTUAL FDI Y/Y: -1.4% V -7.3% prior - (AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) MAR MINUTES: FURTHER RATES CUTS MAY BE REQUIRED; APPROPRIATE TO HOLD RATES STEADY IN MAR ***Markets Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +1.9% - S&P/ASX -0.2% - Kospi +0.9% - Shanghai Composite +0.2% - Hang Seng +0.3% - June S&P500 +0.2% at 1,549 - Apr gold +0.1% at $1,605/oz - Apr Crude Oil +0.1% at $93.79/brl ***Observations/Insights*** - Cyprus-related turmoil appears to be abating for the moment even though there is little evidence of a concrete resolution. Late in the US session, Pres Anastasiades was said to have confirmed what most market participants had been anticipating - a wide-base "bail-in" bank deposit levy that includes depositors with less than 100K is politically untenable. According to a source with the Greek Finance Ministry, the latest proposal from the Eurogroup would involve exempting Cypriot deposits up to 100k from the bank levy, while imposing a 15.6% tax on deposits above 100k. Parliament vote appears to be back on track to take place later today, while banks are still expected to remain closed until Thursday. - Asian equity markets are largely in the green, albeit with some profit-taking later in the session. Some risk-off in China observed after PBoC announced it would drain CNY39B in 28-day repos vs just CNY5B drained last week. Strong FDI data out of China balancing out the intended tightening PBoC operations. - RBA March meeting minutes largely reiterating sentiment of the statement 2 weeks ago, namely that further rate cuts may be required but plenty of easing is already in the pipeline. Recall those minutes have not accounted for the much stronger than expected employment data released last week that was widely seen as a game-changer for the near-term RBA policy bias. Notably, RBA Dep Gov Lowe lauded strong AUD in keeping Australia economy from overheating. ***Currencies/Fixed Income/Commodities*** - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 13.5 tons to 1,219.5 ton (lowest since 1,205.4 tons in Jul, 2011) - (JP) Japan to increase rate of retail Bond sales, holding smaller sales more frequently - Japanese press - (AU) Australia Newcastle weekly coal exports for week ended Mar 18th: -4.3% w/w - EUR/USD and GBP/USD rangebound around $1.2950 and $1.51 respectively. AUD/USD at session lows below $1.0390 late in the day following PBoC liquidity drain. NZD/USD fell after comments from Fin Min English toward $0.8240. JPY on the backfoot as BOJ Gov Shirakawa hands over the reins to Kuroda. ***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) Shen Danyang: Jan-Feb exports relatively good due to govt policy - (CN) PBoC adviser Song Guoqing: Sees 2013 GDP at 8.3%; pace of growth may decline to 7% in 5 years; March CPI falling toward 2% (vs 3.2% in Feb) - financial press >- (CN) China PBoC to sell CNY39B in 28-day repos (draining liquidity) - financial press - (CN) Beijing may issue detailed property curbs at the end of the month - Chinese press - (CN) Feb mortgage lending in Shanghai totaled CNY3.58B, up CNY5.56B y/y, down CNY2.09B - Shanghai Daily - (JP) Outgoing BoJ gov Shirakawa: Receding risk aversion has made JPY weaker, stocks higher - addressing parliament - (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Japan cannot avoid compiling stop-gap budget; planning provisional 50-day Budget for FY13 until passage of Main Budget - financial press - (AU) Australia RBA Deputy Governor Lowe: Critical that non-mining investment strengthens; Had AUD not remained strong, Australia economy would have overheated - (AU) Australia RBA Assistant Governor Debelle: Australia Bond sales picking up across markets - (NZ) New Zealand Fin Min English: Reiterates NZD is overvalued; expects to see correction in NZD when US economy perks up; New Zealand Fin Min English: Reiterates NZD is overvalued; expects to see correction in NZD when US economy perks up - (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK): South Korea bankruptcies in Feb fell to 85 from 103 in Jan; record low - Korean press - (KR) According to South Korea's Financial Supervisory Service (FSS): Corporate direct financing rose 68.8% m/m in Feb - Korean press - (CY) Cyprus President Anastasiades said to have indicated to Eurogroup he does not have enough support to pass the deposit levy through Parliament - financial press - (CY) Institute of International Finance (IIF)'s Tim Adams: Cyprus levy on bank deposits opens up several possible destabilizing effects - (CY) Senior debt holders in non-viable Cyprus banks may incur charges (about 400M) as part of effort to raise the full 5.8B "bail in" - CNBC - (CY) Anonymous EU official: Eurogroup conference call on Cyprus ended; gives Cyprus more flexibility on bank levy; Parliament vote to take as initially planned on Tuesday - press ***Equities*** - RIO: exec: Well ahead in increasing output to 290M tons/yr in Q3; Australia coal sector is facing considerable challenges - FMG.AU: Sees significant progress in asset sale process; Confident in China market in the long-term - NGF.AU: CEO: Looking for acquisitions that would boost its gold production to 300K oz per year within 3-5 years - AFR - SDL.AU: Has discussed Mbalam iron ore project with various parties including Glencore - financial press - TPM.AU: Reports H1 Net A$78.3M v A$55.7M y/y, Rev $357.0M v $324.5M y/y - NHC.AU: Reports H1 Net A$68.8M v A$101.1M y/y, Rev A$322.9M v A$388.5M y/y - Sharp 6753.JP: Expects to post op profit for H2 FY12/13 - Japanese press - ANA 9202.JP: Plans to seek compensation from Boeing over grounded 787s - Kyodo News - Tokyu 9005.JP: May see FY13/14 passenger volume up nearly 2% from FY12/13 estimates, accompanied by higher fares - Nikkei News - Lawson 2651.JP: May report FY12/13 op profit around 66B, +7% y/y (in line with most recent co. guidance); Rev seen around 490B, +2% y/y (below 501B latest guidance) - Nikkei News - Tepco 9501.JP: Fukushima nuclear facility suffers from power failure, halts cooling system; No major changes observed in radioactivity levels - Nikkei News - DELL: Blackstone said to be mulling possible bid for Dell as part of consortium, outbidding Silver Lake - financial press - BLK: To lay off about 3% of its workforce (about 300 staff) due to company restructuring; Layoffs said to start immediately - financial press - LULU: Provides guidance update: Sees Q1 Rev $333M-$343M v $355Me ($350M-$355M prior estimates), Comp SSS +5-8% (11% prior estimates) >- EA: Guides Q4 EPS and Rev at low end or slightly below prior guidance (prior guidance: $0.57-0.72, R$1.025-1.125B); CEO John Riccitiello to step down, effective March 30th -


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