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Wednesday March 20, 2013 - 10:38:26 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE Minutes: Policy held steady over concerns that more bond purchases could drive down sterling and undermine commitment to fighting inflation; UK budget in focus

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: BOE Minutes: Policy held steady over concerns that more bond purchases could drive down sterling and undermine commitment to fighting inflation; UK budget in focus
Wed, 20 Mar 2013 6:14 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- The Cyprus government rejects rescue plan (36 votes against, 19 abstaining); working with European officials to keep its financial system afloat
- ECB Statement: take note of the Cyprus vote; in contact with Troika partners; reaffirms commitment to provide liquidity as needed within the rules
-Eurogroup Head: Cyprus vote is disappointing; Offer for Cyprus still stands; bailout wont exceed 10B
- Cyprus officials in Russia on bailout talks; says negotiations are constructive but cancels planned 06:00 ET press conference
- French Budget Min Cahuzac resigned after Swiss-Bank-Account revelations
- Spain might tax banks on deposits at a moderate rate; want to compensate regions for loss of tax receipts
- BOE Minutes: Policy held steady over concerns that more bond purchases could drive down sterling and undermine public perceptions of commitment to fighting inflation

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Feb Producer Prices M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.5%e

- (DK) Denmark Mar Consumer Confidence Indicator: -2.1 v -2.0e
- (TW) Taiwan Feb Export Orders Y/Y: -14.5% v -3.0%e
- (ZA) South Africa Feb CPI (all items) M/M: 1.0% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.6%e
- (EU) ECB: 12M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 34M prior; 133.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 135.0B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Consumer Confidence: -41 v -40e
- (IC) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) leaves 7-Day Lending Rate unchanged at 6.00%; as expected
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Current Account nsa: -4.5B v +29.0B prior; Current Account Seasonally Adj: 14.8B v 16.0B prior
- (MA) Malaysia Feb CPI Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5%e
- (UK) Bank of England Minutes : Voted 6 to 3 to maintain Asset Purchase Target at 375B
- (UK) Bank of England Minutes : Voted 9 to 0 (unanimous) to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50%
- (UK) Feb Jobless Claims Change: -1.5K v -5.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 4.7% v 4.7%e
- (UK) Jan Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e; Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 1.3% v 1.5%e
- (UK) Jan ILO Unemployment Rate: 7.8% v 7.8%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: +131K v +140Ke
- (CH)) Swiss Mar Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 2.3 v 10.0 prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $700M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at 0.66% vs. $0M prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK in 2019 bonds; Yield: 1.5250% v 0.9374% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (RU) Russia sold RUB6.2 vs. RU6.2B indicated in 2019 OFZ bonds; Yield: 6.58% vs. guidance of 6.53-6.58%

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.20% at 6,452,
DAX +0.50% at 7,985, CAC-40 +0.60% at 3,797, IBEX-35 +0.60% at 8,366, FTSE MIB +0.40% at 15,726, SMI +0.60% at 7,833, S&P 500 Futures +0.40% at 1,548

- Equity markets in Europe have rebounded slightly, following the losses seen on Tuesday's session. Most banks are trading higher led by Credit Agricole and Deutsche Bank. Overall markets are focusing on the developments related to Cyprus and the later today US FOMC decision. Companies due to report quarterly earnings during the US morning include Fedex and General Mills.

- UK movers [Centamin Egypt +15% (favorable court ruling in Egypt), Asos +5.5% (Q2 sales rose 37%); CPP Group -55% (financing concerns), Greggs -6% (reported y/y decline in FY sales, cautious outlook commentary)]
- Germany movers [Dialog Semi +5.5% (broker commentary); Leoni -3.5% (FY13 outlook), Air Berlin -3% (cautious outlook commentary), Metro -2% (FY13 outlook)]
- France movers [Cap Gemini +1.5% (broker commentary); Atos Origin -1.5% (placement)]
- Italy movers [Banca Popolare di Milano +3% (approved rights offering); BCA Carige -2% (suspended dividend), Fiat -1.5% (cautious Q1 commentary)]
- The Netherlands movers [Imtech +3.5% (credit agreement)]

Speakers:
- BOE Minutes: Again Gov King, members Fisher and Miles supported rise of 25B in QE policy as MPC saw arguments for and against QE extension
. The BOE saw risk of unwarranted GBP currency (pound) fall if QE expanded further (It did add that GBP weakness due to credit issues would be different). Persistent GBP depreciation would add "a little" to inflation. More stimuli could risk inflation expectations drift. Inflation outlook was a little higher with expectations stable as wage growth weak. Recent data had not altered economic outlook materially but global demand remained uncertain
- Cyprus Fin Min Sarris commented that he hoped for loan agreement with Russia today but could not predict the results of the discussions. Later he noted that the dialogue with Russia had been constructive although no decision had been reached yet. He vowed to remain in Russia until an agreement was reached
- Cyprus Interior Min: EU/IMF/ECB Trokia did not like plan "B" but added there was no chance of Cyprus exiting the Euro zone . He added that Troika believed it was possible to shut down two Cyprus banks
- Austria Fin Min Fekter commented that it was up to Cyprus to propose the next step but it could not accept measures that increased the country's debt. Austria noted that it would have preferred bank debt haircuts over deposit levy
- ECB's Asmussen (Germany): ECB will only provide liquidity to solvent banks. Cypriot banks were not solvent without quick recapitalization
- Sweden Fin Min Borg commented that European growth to be slow and lag the US. The world was in rather troublesome state with a slow global recovery. He stressed that must understand just how deep the EMU crisis was with Euro Zone unemployment set to rise. He believed that likely to reach a solution for Cyprus this week. Overall Cyprus was a limited problem and noted that Italy was a significant risk to global economy and more of a concern than Cyprus. He saw Italy as a bigger risk to financial markets than Spain
- Spain PM Rajoy believed Spain would change its current economic forecast and cut its 2013 outlook
- Spain Budget Min Montoro: Spain will not introduce Cyprus-style deposit tax
- Italy Econ Min: ready to unblock payments of public sector debt owed to private companies soon
- Sweden Central Bank Gov Ingves: Examining further increase in mortgage risk weight. He added that it would be good to see falling household debt
- South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Marcus: Raises 2013 and 2014 inflation view and seen breaching 6% target ceiling in 3Q
- EU President Van Rompuy: Structural deficits were more than nominal targets
- Portugal bailout secretary Moedas: Portugal yields were falling before ECB intervene
- Iceland Central Bank commented after its rate decision that its accommodative policy was supporting Iceland recovery and maintained its outlook of a gradual recovery. It noted that - Feb inflation was considerably higher vs. estimate and that measures to support ISK currency (krona) were proving effective
- Russia Parliament vote on Nabiullina as central bank chief might occur in lower house on March 22nd (**Note: **Note: Current Central Bank Gov Sergei Ignatyev will step down on June 24th)
- South Korea raises cyber alert level following reports that the country's major broadcaster's computer networks were frozen
- China Pres Xi: Tells South Korea Pres that stability on the Korean peninsula is in China's interest
- New Zealand Fin Min English: Drought could shave up to 1% off GDP growth

Currencies:
- The FX markets continued to await the outcome of the Cyprus situation. The Cyprus officials were in Russia today trying to work out an agreement after the Cypriot Parliament rejected the Troika's proposed 10B bailout that included a deposit tax. Cyprus is floating numerous other plans to avert any bankruptcy. Nonetheless that EUR/USD showed some signs of stability in the session after it hit new 2013 lows under 1.2850 on Tuesday. The market still has optimism that an agreement would be reached for Cyprus. Markets were expecting the Fed to continue their accommodative tone and protect any global ramifications from Europe.
- The GBP was drifting lower ahead of key UK data and BOE minutes to 1.5035. The minutes helped the GBP move higher after the BOE saw risk of unwarranted GBP currency (pound) weakness if QE expanded further

Political/In the Papers:
- Spain Budget Min Montoro plans to impose a moderate rate in the state tax on bank deposits to compensate autonomous regions that had their tax autonomy cancelled after the govt created a 0% tax rate
-Deposit Levy: The bank levy bill was rejected by parliament, as none of the lawmakers supported the measure. Following the vote there was press speculation that party leaders discussed contingency plans (Plan B and Plan C).
-Banking System: EU officials are said to be considering another extension of Cyprus' bank holiday until Tuesday, March 26th. Germany's Fin Min Schaeuble stated that 2 large banks in Cyprus will become basically insolvent if they do not receive aid.
-Capital Controls: It was reported that EU officials discussed additional capital controls for Cyprus. The capital controls plan could involve the ECB providing euro liquidity to ATMs. Also daily limits could be placed on banking transactions.
-ECB role: ECB's Governing Council is due to hold its already scheduled meeting on Wednesday in Frankfurt. On Tuesday's session it was reported that the ECB reaffirmed that it would provide liquidity to Cyprus within existing rules. ECB's Nowotny suggested that the ECB would be prepared to be the "lender of last resort". Currently the ECB's Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) for Cyprus banking system is due to expire on Thursday. Earlier in the week, it was reported that the ECB would provide liquidity, if the deposit levy plan was passed.
-Cyprus' Finance Min Sarris denied earlier reports that he had submitted his resignation.
- (EU) ECB's Nowotny: Current policy stance is 'adequate', personally see no impending rate cut
- World bank chief economist Baku: Industrialized nations may benefit from some inflation pressure; 4% inflation could be good for a few years to address large public debts
- (IT) Italy President said to commence consultations at 10AM Wed on forming a government; Wed Napolitano to meet with Monti party and party of Bersani ally Vendola; Thurs to meet Bersani, Gilllo and Berlusconi parties.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 5.00%
- (EU) EU meets on capital and bonus rules for banks
- (US) President Obama in Israel
- (RU) Russia to sell RUB20B in 2028 OFX bonds
- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell add'l 4.0B in 1.5% 2023 Bunds
- 06:30 (PL) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) to sell 1.25-1.50B in 3-month and 18-month Bills

- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 15th: No est v -4.7% prior
- 07:00 (PL) Poland to sell combined PLN4.0-6.0B in 2015 and 2018 bonds
- 07:00 (CZ)) Czech Republic to sell combined CZK8.0B in 2016 and 2022 bonds
- 07:30 (EU) EU Commission presents economic reform and financial support scheme
- 07:30 (US) Daily US Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 08:30 (UK) U.K. Chancellor Osborne presents 2013 Budget to Parliament
- 08:30 (EU) ECB member Asmussen (Germany) speech in Frankfurt
- 09:00 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Marcus begins Interest Rate press conference
- 09:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at DIHK
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Feb Teranet/National Bank HPI M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.7% prior; House Price Index: No est v 153.0 prior
- 10:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy with Barroso in Parliament on EU Leader Summit
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 10:45 (UK) DMO to buy 1.1B in 7-year to 15-year Gilts
- 11:00 (EU) Euro Zone Mar Advanced Consumer Confidence: -23.2e v -23.6 prior
- 11:30 (EU) EU's Barnier
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly Currency Flows
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2 Year Notes
- 12:30 (IE) Ireland PM Kenny
- 14:00 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%
- 14:00 (US) Fed releases Summary of Economic Projections
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Feb CAGED Formal Job Creation: 95.0Ke v +28.9K prior
- 14:30 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke holds post rate decision press conference in DC
- 19:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel, State Leaders, Utilities hold Energy Policy Summit
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Feb Total Merchandise Trade Balance: -855.9Be v -1.629T prior; Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -1.102Te v -678.9B prior
- 21:45 (CN) China Mar HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: 50.8e v 50.4 prior


 

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Tue 21 Nov
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23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
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15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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