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Thursday March 21, 2013 - 10:40:55 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Major European PMI readings all miss expectations; UK retail sales handily beats consensus; Spain has solid bond auction results EU Market Update: Major European PMI readings all miss expectations; UK retail sales handily beats consensus; Spain has solid bond auction results
Thu, 21 Mar 2013 6:10 AM EST

- China Mar HSBC Flash PMI Manufacturing beats expectations and registers 5th straight month of expansion
- Political standoff in Australia came to a head. After weeks of tension, PM Gillard survived an uncontested party leadership challenge
- New Zealand Q4 GDP registers highest reading in three years
- Japan Feb adj Merchandise Trade Balance registers largest deficit on record
- Hope remained that Cyprus will be able to come up with a new plan to get a bailout; "Plan B" would involve some Russian aid and a reduced levy on bank deposits
- ECB to maintain ELA for Cyprus until Monday March 25th; ELA can only be considered thereafter if EU/IMF program is in place that ensures solvency of banks
- Major European PMI data disappoints; France Services was lowest services reading since Mar 2009
- UK Feb Retail Sales easily exceeds expectations; help GBP trade at 2-week highs
- Spain bond auction results solids; sold above indicated range at lower yields and improved bid-to-covers

- FOMC Statement: QE at $45B Treasuries and $40B MBS a month; Continue asset purchase until labor outlook improves substantially; Continue to see downside risks to economy; See moderate economic growth following pause late last yr; Labor market shows signs of improvement; Jobless rate remains elevated; Expects highly accommodative policy will remain appropriate for considerable time after asset purchase program ends and economy strengthens

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Jan All Industry Activity Index M/M: -1.4% v -1.4%e
- (JP) Japan Feb Supermarket Sales Y/Y: -5.5% v -4.7% prior
- (CH) Swiss Feb Trade Balance (CHF): 2.1B v 2.0Be; Real Exports M/M: -2.6% v +3.7% prior; Real Imports M/M: -5.4% v -1.3% prior
- (JP) Japan Feb Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -4.7% v -0.9% prior
- (FR) France Mar Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 43.9 v 44.2e; PMI Services: 41.9 v 44.0e; lowest reading since Mar 2009)
- (HU) Hungary Jan Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 2.5% v 4.7%e
- (DK) Denmark Feb Retail Sales: +0.3% v -0.8% prior; Y/Y: -4.0% v -1.9% prior
- (CH) Swiss Feb M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.8% v 9.4% prior
- (EU) ECB: 686M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 12M prior; 130.53B parked in deposit facility vs. 133.6B prior
- (DE) Germany Mar Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 48.9 v 50.5e; PMI Services: 51.6 v 55.0e
- (NL) Netherlands Feb Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 7.6%e
- (NL) Netherlands Feb House Price Index M/M: +1.2% v -2.9% prior; Y/Y: -8.3% v -9.6% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Feb CPI Composite Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.0%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Q4 Current Account Balance: $9.6B v 23.8B prior; Overall Balance of Payments: $94.3Bv $37.9B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 46.6 v 48.2e; PMI Services: 46.5 v 48.2e; PMI Composite: 46.5 v 48.2e
- (GR) Greece Jan Current Account: -222M v -534M prior
- (UK) Feb Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: 1.9% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 1.2%e
- (UK) Feb Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M: 2.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 0.5%e
- (UK) Feb Public Finances (PSNCR): -1.5B v -12.0Be; PSNB ex Interventions: 2.8B v 8.0Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: 4.4B v 8.2Be

- (PL) Central/Eastern European Mar ZEW Indicator: 49.9 v 36.3 prior
- (AT) Austria WIFO quarterly economic forecasts: Maintained 2013 and 2014 GDP at 1.0% and 1.8% respectively

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold sold total 4.51B vs. 3.0-4.0B indicated range in 2015, 2018 and 2023 Bonds

- Sold 1.156B in March 2.75% 2015 Bono bond; Avg Yield 2.2275% v 2.540% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.0x v 3.69x prior; Maximum Yield 2.306% v 2.570% prior; Tail bps v 3.0bps prior
- Sold 1.032B in Jan 4.5% 2018 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 3.557% v 3.572% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.6x v 2.3x prior; Maximum Yield 3.579% v 3.612% prior; Tail bps v 4.0bps prior
- Sold 2.325B in 5.4% 2023 bonds; Avg Yield 4.898% v 4.917% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 2.3x prior; Max Yield 4.919% v 4.957% prior; Tails bps v 4.0bps bps
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 7.99B vs. 7.0-8.0B indicated range in 2015 and 2018 - Sells 5.003B in 0.25% Nov 2015 Oats; Avg Yield 0.32% v 0.41% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3x v 3.3x prior
- Sells 2.99B in 1.0% 2018 Oat; Avg Yield 1.12% v 0.89% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.54x v 1.995x prior


FTSE 100 -0.80% at 6,381,
DAX -0.90% at 7,928, CAC-40 -1.1% at 3,787, IBEX-35 -0.80% at 8,351, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 15,961, SMI -0.80% at 7,783, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,546

- European equity markets are broadly lower on continued uncertainty related to Cyprus, as the ECB agreed to extend its extend its emergency support measures for Cypriot banks until Monday, March 25th. Additionally , weaker than expected PMI data from Germany and France has weighed on markets. European banks are currently trading mixed, while resource related firms are mostly lower.

- UK movers [Lamprell +6% (new CFO), Premier Farnell +2.5% (FY profits and sales rose y/y), Premier Oil +2% (FY profits and production rose y/y); McBride -11% (profit warning), Mecom -4.5% (FY results declined y/y)]
- Germany movers [Joyou +11% (revised shareholder structure), Brenntag +3.5% (FY results above ests), Siemens +1.5% (broker commentary), Praktiker +1% (FY loss narrowed), Beiersdorf +0.50% (broker commentary); Kontron -7% (cut dividend), Lanxess -5% (Q1 outlook), Gildemeister -4.5% (speculation related cross-shareholding agreement in Japan), SAP -2% (disappointing results from Oracle), Talanx -2% (FY profits below ests), ThyssenKrupp -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Eurotunnel +2% (raised dividend by 50%), Hermes +0.50% (FY profits above ests)]
- Switzerland movers [Novartis +1% (data presentation on Gilenya); Kuoni -1%(swung to FY net loss)]

- ECB to maintain Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) for Cyprus at current level until Monday March 25th; ELA can only be considered thereafter if EU/IMF program is in place that ensures solvency of banks

- Eurogroup Chief Dijsselbloem (Netherlands): Euro zone was still facing challenging times and Cyprus remained on front burner. He noted that Cyprus posed a systemic risk and stressed that it was up to Cyprus to come up with an alternative proposal and reaffirmed commitment to guarantee EU deposits below 100K. He added that he did not see many alternatives to package that was agreed upon last week. Fiscal consolidation was unavoidable. Must unsure enlargement of Eurogroup area continues
- Cyprus Fin Min Sarris: Talking about cooperating with Russia in banking and natural gas in addition to loan. Later he noted that Cyprus was seeking a 5 year extension to Russia loan and a rate cut on the loan from 4.5% to 2.5%
- Russia ambassador to EU Chizhov: Russia not seeking separate deal with Cyprus; wants to cooperate with EU. He did not want to strike a deal with Cyprus that might be seen as going against EU interest
- Cyprus party leaders said to be discussing possibility of a voluntary haircut and noted that a smaller bank deposit levy is on the table
- Russia Fin Min Siluanov: Talks with the Cyprus Fin Min Sarris to continue Thursday; Cyprus plan surprisingly unpredictable
- EU's Barroso commented from Moscow that he was very concerned about the situation in Cyprus and would listen to Russian concerns on Cyprus
- Austria Fin Min Fekter said a bankruptcy of Cyprus cannot be excluded -
- Fitch: No immediate rating effect on Eurozone sovereigns from Cyprus but the agency slammed the Ad hoc crisis response to crisis had exacerbated uncertainty in the EMU
- Italy 5-star Movement official: Asked President Napolitano to be allowed to form a govt; referendum on Euro is part of its program
- Italy's Grillo: Will not give confidence vote to any non-5 Star govt
- Hungary Econ Min Varga: HUF currency (forint) volatility due to external factors; might stabilize after the Cyprus crisis
- Russian PM Medvedev: Could re-think Russia's forex reserve holdings in euro (approx 42%) after EU's handling of Cyprus
- Chancellor Osborne: Making progress but difficult problems remain; need to do more to tackle debt and deficit
- France Fin Min Moscovivi: No increases in French taxes in 2013; no additional spending cuts as well
- Citigroup revises outlook on ECB Deposit Rate; no longer sees a cut into negative territory (**Note: was previously forecasting a cut in H2); Citi still calling for two cuts in main refi rate in 2013 with first coming in Q2
- Australia Party Leadership vote: Gillard remained as Prime Minister after party meeting, was unopposed
- IMF's Rodlauer: Sees increase in capital flows into emerging markets

- The EUR/USD price action took its direction from advanced PMI readings for the major European countries. The pair dipped below 1.29 handle after both France, Germany and Euro Zone readings came in below expectations. France Services PMI hit a 3-year low while Germany Manufacturing moved back into contraction territory. The EUR/USD managed to move back above the 1.29 handle on hope that a solution can be found .
- The GBP was steady in the session and built some slight gains. On Wed the government refrained from tweaking the BoE's 2.0% CPI inflation target but asked the MPC to give an assessment in August of intermediate policy thresholds and be asked to explain in greater detail the trade-offs it has made when taking decisions. The Feb Retail Sales easily exceeded expectations; helping GBP trade at 2-week highs above 1.5190
- The JPY was firmer as markets awaited new BOJ gov Kuroda to give his first press conference. USD/JPY at 95.40 ahead of the NY morning

Political/In the Papers:
- (CY) ECB reportedly to wait on its ELA decision until after more information is received on the bailout for Cyprus - financial press
- (CY) Cyprus govt officials noting the "Plan B" would involve some Russian aid and a reduced levy on bank deposits - financial press; Parliament still expected to vote on the new plan on Thursday; May also include a structural investment fund backed by pension funds and real estate; the fund could also be linked with a bond issued back by natural resources; The Orthodox Chuch, the largest landowner in Cyprus, has offered to pledge some of its assets towards the bailout
- (CY) Cyprus and Troika reportedly discussing plan that could reduce the deposit levy to 2B from the planned 5.8B; New plan would include "internal borrowing" to reach the total 5.8B contribution from Cyprus; Troika seeks assurances that Cyprus public debt is sustainable.
- (CY) Troika rejects Cyprus alternative plans; want two Cyrus banks to be shut down - govt official; Troika did not find the plan to resolve Popular Bank and then sell it Russian investors convincing.
- (CY) Cyprus fin

UK Budget:
-OBR Updated Forecasts: Cuts 2013 GDP to 0.6% from 1.2% prior; Cuts 2014 GDP to 1.8% from 2.0% prior; Cuts 2015 GDP to 1.8% from 2.3% prior; Now expects debt/GDP ratio to peak in 2016-17 at 85.6% (In Dec, said debt would peak at 79.9% in 2015-16)
-Highlights from UK Budget: Updated BoE remit confirms 2% CPI target; MPC may set 'intermediate thresholds' as the US Fed did; Asks BoE to assess use of forward guidance benefits; To abolish stamp-duty for shares traded on AIM; Will increase bank levy to 0.142% in 2014 (measures on tax avoidance); Govt to spend 3.5B to support home buyers; To cancel Sep UK fuel duty increase
- (UK) Fitch: To review UK AAA rating in light of budget proposals
- (UK) S&P commented it is to review the UK budget plan details, had no further comment
- (UK) Moody's: UK budget will underpin stable rating on Aa1 sovereign outlook

- (BE) Belgium is considering a capital gains tax as a possible measure to close budget gap - De Tijd
- (GR) Right-wing anti-austerity party Independent Greeks planning to bring censure motion against Greece Fin Min Stournaras - ekathimerini; Relates to stance at the recent Eurogroup summit that led to the proposal for a tax on Cypriot bank deposits; Independent Greeks have 18 seats in Parliament, needs 50 deputies to sign the motion

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (ES) Spain Jan Trade Balance: No est v -1.3B prior
- (PT) Portugal Jan Current Account: No est v -43.1M prior
- (AR) Argentina Mar Consumer Confidence: No est v 47.6 prior
- (IS) Israel Feb Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.2% prior
- (IC) Central Bank of Iceland Holds Annual Meeting
- (FI) Finland Government talks on Next Four-Year Spending Framework
- (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with State leaders holds energy policy summit
- IMF commodity price fluctuations conference
- (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) to sell 500M in 3-month Bills;
- 06:30 (UK) DMO to sell 900M in 0.125% I/L 2044 Gilts
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell Bonds
- 07:00 (UK) Mar CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -15e v -14 prior; Selling Prices: 17 v 20 prior
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.8% prior; Current Account Balance: No est v 3.1B prior
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Feb PPI M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.4% prior
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Mar 15th: No est v $522.1B prior
- 07:30 (US) Daily US Libor Fixing
- 08:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy speaks at Defense Conference in Brussels
- 08:30 (US) Weekly Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 340Ke v 332K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.050Me v 3.024MM prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Retail Sales M/M: +0.8%e v -2.1% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: +0.3%e v -0.9% prior

- 08:58 (US) Mar Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 55.0e v 54.3 prior
- 09:00 (US) Jan House Price Index M/M: 0.7%e v 0.6% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Retail Sales: +1.8%e v -1.8% prior
- 10:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report
- 10:00 (US) Mar Philadelphia Fed: -3.0e v -12.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Feb Existing Home Sales: 5.0Me v 4.92M prior
- 10:00 (US) Feb Leading Indicators: 0.3%e v 0.2% prior

- 10:00 (RO) Romania to sell up to RON500M in 2023 bonds
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2016 Bills
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2019, 2023 bonds
- 11:00 (US) Treasury refunding announcement
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:45 (CA) Canadian Minister Finley speaks at the Economic Club
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Q4 GDP Q/Q: No est v -0.7% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.0% prior; 2012 GDP Annual Growth Rate: No est v 5.9% prior
- 12:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 GDP Y/Y: No est v 2.0% prior
- 12:30 (CA) Canada Dep. Governor Cote speech in Montreal
- 12:30 (IE) Ireland Fin Min Noonan
- 13:00 (CH) SNB's Zurbruegg speaks in Zurich
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $13B in 10-Year TIPS Reopening
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Trade Balance: No est v $280M prior
- 16:00 (CA) Canada Fin Min Flaherty gives details on 2013-14 budget
- 16:00 (CA) Canada Fin Min Flaherty presents economic action plan




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