Monday March 25, 2013 - 03:40:00 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 25-Mar-2013 -0336 GMT
All of Asia-Pac is up today, except for Indonesia (-0.41%) and New Zealand (-0.09%). The others are ranging between +0.24% (China) and +1.48% (Korea). The Shanghai (2332) has an important Resistance near 2400 on the Weekly chart, which might not break easily. The Nikkei (12515, +1.44%) is up sharply, but has not risen past Thursday's peak above 12600. It can consolidate sideways between 12200-700 for some more days
The Dow (14512.03, +0.63%) had closed higher on Friday. It has been ranging sideways for 7 days now. Good Support is seen at 14250 and the trend is bullish for the medium term.
While the Asia-Pac indices are largely up on the news of the Cyprus bailout, the picture is not uniformly bullish for Equities globally. At the same time, the picture is not bearish either. Most indices may consolidate for a while. The Dow looks more bullish than the rest. The Nikkei does appear to be Overbought.
The Nifty (5651.35) had closed lower on Friday, but might move up today on the Cyprus news. We are bullish long term.
Gold (1610.60) is trading higher, having risen for the last two weeks. It may try to rise towards 1625-40 while above 1590. This one needs to be watched carefully.
The Euro (1.3025) has risen past 1.30 in early Asian trade today on news of a Cyprus bailout. The details apart, there are decent chances that the Euro may remain above 1.30 and try to move higher. Dollar-Yen (94.85) has good Support in the 94.20-00 region and might rise towards 95.50. The Euro-Yen (123.50) has risen a bit as Friday's decline to 121.43 has not sustained.
The medium term picture is mixed for the Euro-Yen Cross with equal chances of seeing a fall towards 118 as of a rise towards 128. While the Euro might rise if the Cyprus deal goes through relatively smoothly, the Nikkei and Dollar-Yen are Overbought in the near term. That's the rub.
The Pound (1.5245) has 8-week MA Resistance at current levels. But, if that breaks, the Pound can rise towards 1.54. Support is seen at 1.51. The Aussie (1.0449) has moved up well over the last three weeks and looks bullish for a test of 1.0550 over the coming days.
Overall, the Dollar Index (82.18) has come off a bit and is again trading below the crucial Resistance at 82.70. At the same time, there is crucial Support at 81.78. Basically, this range needs to break in either direction in April to set the Dollar trend for the rest of the year.
The Singapore Dollar (1.2454) and Korean Won (1089.10) have both gained today on the Cyprus news. The Rupee (54.3350) might also gain today, within a a near term range of 53.90-54.50.
The Japanese Yield Curve has been flattening since the beginning of the year and might flatten some more over the next couple of weeks, pushing the 10 and 30 Yr yields lower. But most of the flattening move is over, only a little bit is left. Take a look at
If the flattening move comes to an end, it could trigger profit-taking in Dollar-Yen. The next BOJ Meeting is next week on 4th April. The market will want to see the BOJ deliver on its promise of balance sheet expansion. Even then, there is a danger of profit-taking on "buy the rumour/ sell the fact".
The 10-Yr German Bund/ US Bond Spread (-0.58%) has very good Support near -0.65 which could provide a good Support for EUR-USD. The German 2-Yr (0.03%) is managing to trade above Zero and might move higher if the Cyprus issue is sorted out. The Spain 10-Yr (4.86%) has resumed its downward trend.
The overall bond market situation looks a little more favourable for "risk" trades than a week ago.
No major data release today.
GER IFO Business Climate
...Actual 107.40 ...Previous 104.30
GER IFO Business Situations
...Actual 110.20 ...Previous 108.10
GER IFO Business Expectations
...Actual 103.60 ...Previous 104.60
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