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Monday March 25, 2013 - 07:42:12 GMT
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***Note: All Times are in New York/Eastern Time ***Reminder: For a complete list of earnings, conf calls and events please see the Calendar tab in the TTN platform ***Cyprus Situation*** - Banking Sector Restructuring: As part of the plan Popular Bank (Laiki Bank) will be wound down into a good and bad bank. The "good" bank (which will include Laiki's deposits) will be consolidated with the Bank of Cyprus. As of Sept, the Bank of Cyprus had about 27.9B in total deposits and assets of about 36B in total assets. Popular Bank had assets of about 30B, about 18B in total customer deposits and about 144M in senior debt. - Bank Deposits: In order to restructure Laiki Bank, depositors with funds in the bank of over 100K (uninsured) will face losses. According to an EU official, Popular is believed to have about 4.2B in uninsured deposits. Officials have yet to set a specific bail-in level for the depositors at the bank. There has been some speculation that uninsured depositors could participate in some form of a deposit for equity swap agreement. An FT report noted that officials were considering an up to 40% haircut on depositors with more than 100K at the Bank of Cyprus. A 30-40% haircut range was speculated during the prior week. A smaller hit could be faced by large depositors at other Cypriot banks. According to the Eurogroup, the bail-in of depositors does not need to be voted on by Cyprus' parliament, as the plan related to depositor haircuts has not be characterized as a tax. - Haircuts on Senior Bank Bondholders: According to reports, senior bondholders in Laiki Bank are expected to face significant haircuts. The level of the haircuts has not been specified as of yet. In prior bank bailouts in Ireland and the Netherlands, bank senior bondholders were protected from losses. - ECB: The ECB is expected to continue to provide emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to the Bank of Cyprus, as Laiki Bank's 9B in emergency liquidity is expected to be assumed by the Bank of Cyprus. Capital Controls: As part of the measures, Cyprus Popular Bank has limited ATM withdrawals to 100/day. There is no specific time as of yet for banks in Cyprus to reopen, as Cyprus' Finance Minister said he wanted banks to open "as soon as possible" - According to the head of the ESM Regling, Cyprus is seen receiving its first funds in early May. Disbursements will be made on a quarterly basis. The Dutch and Germany Finance Ministers have both expressed confidence that their national parliaments will approve the agreement. - Russia: Loan extension talks with Russia are said to be continuing. - Rating agency commentary: According to Moody's, the Cyprus crisis is credit negative for all European sovereigns. ***Looking Ahead*** Mon, March 25th Americas: Fed's Dudley speaks Notable US Earnings: APOL Asia: SouthGobi Resources Notable Asia Earnings: None seen Europe: Italy bond auction, Italy Consumer Confidence Notable EU Earnings: Magnit, TNT Express, Daily Mail, Meyer Burger Tues, March 26th Americas: Case-Shiller, US Durable Goods , US Consumer Confidence; US New Home Sales Notable US Earnings: SAI Asia: NZ Trade Balance, South Korea GDP Notable Asia Earnings: Europe: Hungary rate decision, Swiss KOF Economic forecast, France Consumer Confidence Notable EU Earnings: Wolseley, Celesio, Evotec, Mediaset Wed, March 27th Americas: US pending home sales; Canada CPI Notable US Earnings: PVH, SNX Asia: NZ Business Confidence, RBA Stevens speaks Notable Asia Earnings: Europe: Italy bond auction, UK Q4 Current Account, Final GDP; France GDP; Spain CPI Notable EU Earnings: ICAP, Prosieben, SMA Solar Thurs, March 28th Americas: Canada Jan GDP, US Q4 GDP; US Continuing/Initial jobless claims Notable US Earnings: BBRY, CAN, CMC, GME, MOS, UTIW, WGO Asia: NZ Building Permits, Japan retail trade, Australia job vacancies; HK budget Notable Asia Earnings: Europe: Germany Unemployment change and rate; Czech repo rate announcement Notable EU Earnings: Banca Monte Paschi de Siena, 3i Group, VTB Bank, Wendel Investissement Fri, March 29th Americas: US PCE Deflator, US Final Michigan Confidence; US and Canada closed for good Friday Asia: Japan national and Tokyo CPI, Japan prelim industrial production; Japan Markit.JMMA Manufacturing PMI Notable Asia Earnings: none seen Europe: Most markets closed for Good Friday -


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