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Monday March 25, 2013 - 19:32:02 GMT
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Forex - Westpac Morning Report

Morning Report Tuesday 26 March 2013


Market wrap
Global market sentiment: The IMF/EU/ECB agreed to bailout Cyprus but markets were unnerved by the longer term consequences. The deal announcement, which penalises large deposit holders in Cypriot banks in return for aid, initially lifted sentiment. However the mood soured when a senior Cypriot lawmakers questioned whether the country should remain inside the Eurozone, and Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem reportedly said Cyprus’ haircut was a template for the rest of Europe (later retracted). There were also rumours Moody’s downgraded Italy.The Eurostoxx 50 closed 1.2% lower and the S&P500 is currently down 0.2%.

Interest rates: The US 10yr treasury yield firmed 1bp to 1.97% during the London morning but then fell to 1.89% on the Eurozone concerns. Dovish Fedspeak from Dudley may have assisted. Italy and Spain’s 10yr yields rose 10bp. Australia’s 3yr bond yield fell from 3.09% and 3.00%, while the 10yr yield fell from 3.65% to 3.54%.

Currencies: The US dollar index is around 0.5% higher. EUR fell from 1.0346 to 1.2830 a 4-month low - after the above euro-comments, forming a technically bearish outside down continuation pattern. USD/JPY fell sharply from 94.93 to 93.53, risk aversion benefitting the yen. AUD initially extended from 1.0450 to 1.0480 but then fell to 1.0443. NZD similarly rose from 0.8343 to 0.8371 initially but then reversed to 0.8328. AUD/NZD was restrained inside a 1.2510-1.2540 sideways range.

Economic wrap
US Dallas Fed factory index rose from 2.2 in Feb to 7.4 in Mar. The index has remained positive for the fourth month running after contractionary readings in 7 of the 8 previous months. This more or less repeats the pattern of the last few years - turn of year gains followed by mid year slump - seen in many US data series since the Lehmans slump, and is probably a function of distorted seasonal adjustment factors as much as genuine sentiment swings. The detail showed production, orders and jobs all accelerating in Mar.

US Chicago Fed national activity indicator recovered from –0.5 to +0.4 in Feb. This index is based on 80+ data series and reflects the improved overall activity picture since the start of the year.

UK house prices were unchanged in March compared to a year earlier according to Hometrack, after two and a half years of declines. However BBA data covering 70% of the market showed just 30.5k new mortgages issued in Feb, the lowest since the BoE/Treasury funding for lending for scheme was introduced in August last year.

The revised Cypriot bailout deal will see the €10bn EU/IMF bailout loan supplemented by uninsured deposits (ie >€100k) at the second largest bank which will be closed, and up to 40% of deposits at the largest bank which will take on the viable assets of the closed bank. Even with that depositor contribution the bailout loan will push Cypriot debt up by around 60% of GDP, and the economy is consigned to several more years of recession which risks blowing the ratio to well above the 140% peak currently pencilled in by officials. Cypriot banks remain closed until further notice and capital controls will be in place to prevent runs on deposits when they reopen. The ECB has confirmed it will maintain funding to the remaining banks. Eurogroup chair Dijsselbloem said the depositor bail-in could be seen as a template for future bailouts - Cyprus it seems is no longer a unique case! We see it as the first of many attempts by the EU/IMF/ECB to delay the debt write-downs that will prove to be inevitable over the longer-term (notably in Greece’s case). Meanwhile the Spanish bank restructuring fund has announced that shareholders of the 5 nationalised banks will be virtually wiped out and bondholders will wear losses of 30% to 90% as part of the €40bn bailout of the Spanish banks.

Event risk today: Locally we have NZ’s trade balance, which occasionally has a minor NZD impact. Westpac’s forecast is above consensus. Also we have RBA Governor Stevens speaking in Sydney.

NZD/USD 1 day: Ripe for a correction to at least 0.8300 today.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: Above 0.8355 would put the NZD back into positive-trend mode, below suggests further weakness to 0.8100. Global surprises will drive it in the near term but we expect a fresh high by late 2013 on NZ’s improving economy.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening down 4bp at 2.90%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: Following the current consolidation, which could yet extend lower to 2.80%, a rise above 3.20% should ensue.
AUD/USD 1 day: Ripe for a minor correction to at least 1.0400 today.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: Remains inside an 18-month consolidation triangle defined by 1.0500 above and 0.9900 below. We expect the eventual break to be upward.





Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 26 March  2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s

financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without

notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.


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