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Tuesday March 26, 2013 - 11:02:59 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Market sentiment remains cautious as EMU officials try to backtrack from template comment on Cyprus bailout; France Consumer Confidence slips to 4-month lows

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Market sentiment remains cautious as EMU officials try to backtrack from template comment on Cyprus bailout; France Consumer Confidence slips to 4-month lows
Tue, 26 Mar 2013 6:10 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Eurogrup's Dijsselbloem tries to backtrack from template comment on Cyprus bailout
- Spain Fin Min de Guindos reiterated view that Cyprus bailout model was unique to Cyprus, and did not apply to other countries
- Head of Cyprus ruling DISY party Neofytou: Cyprus bailout deal allows Cyprus to stay in the euro zone
- Cyprus banking sector to remain closed until Thurs, Mar 28th
- Cyprus Fin Min Sarris: Capital controls could be in place for "a matter of weeks"
-BoJ's Kuroda testifies on BOJ mandate to Parliament: will do whatever it takes to hit price target; will seek to expand balance sheet by accepting medium and long term assets to push down yields along the length of the curve; targeting JGB maturities of up to 5-years as an option
- BOE's King: Crisis is far from over, could have more developments
- France Mar Consumer Confidence hits lowest reading since November
- Italy sells 6-month Bills at lowest yield since Jan
- Active calendar heading into the Easter break. Key data today in NY morning include US-Durable Goods, Case Shiller, New Homes Sales and Conference Board's Consumer Confidence


***Economic Data***
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Leading Indicator: 132.4 v 131.2 prior
- (FI) Finland Feb Unemployment Rate: 8.7% v 8.7% prior
- (FI) Finland Feb Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -1.9% v +1.5% prior
- (FR) France Mar Consumer Confidence Indicator:84 v 86e
- (ES) Spain Jan Mortgages-capital loaned Y/Y: -20.0% v -28.1% prior; Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: -12.4% v -27.8% prior
- (EU) ECB: 1.05B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 212M prior; 128.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 126.8B prior
- (UK) YouGov Citi Mar 12-month Inflation Expectation: 2.8% v 2.8% prior (steady for third straight month)
- (SE) Sweden Feb PPI M/M: -0.4% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -3.7 v -2.9% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Feb Trade Balance (HKD):-34.0B v -36.2Be; Exports Y/Y: -16.9% v +4.4%e; Imports Y/Y: -18.3% v -2.5%e
- (RO) Romania Feb Money Supply Y/Y: 2.7% v 3.2% prior
- (VN) Vietnam Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: +5.6% v -10.1% prior
- (VN) Vietnam Q1 GDP Y/Y: 4.9% v 5/0% prior
- (IC) Iceland Mar CPI M/M: 0.2% v 1.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.8% prior

Fixed Income:
- (FR) France to sell Euro-denominated benchmark May 2045 Oat
s via syndication (confirms press speculation); Guidance +10bps over benchmark 4.5% Apr 2041 Oat
- (IN) India sold total INR120B vs. INR120B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 2.225B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated range in Jan 1.250% 2018 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield 0.727% v 0.884% prior
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK3.5B in 2-month, 6-month and 9-month bills, all at negative yields
- (ZA) South Africa sold ZAR2.1B in Bonds
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 8.5B vs. 8.5B indicated in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.831% (lowest since Jan) v 1.237% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.64 x v 1.44x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 +0.10% at 6,384
, DAX +0.30% at 7,892, CAC-40 +0.70% at 3,754, IBEX-35 -0.30% at 8,118, FTSE MIB +0.20% at 15,670, SMI +0.20% at 7,770, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,550

- Equity markets are currently trading mixed, in line with the Asian trading session, as equities in Greece and Spain have underperformed. Mixed trading has been seen in the banking sector, as shares of Commerzbank and Lloyds have lagged. Resource related companies have tracked the gains in oil prices. Factors on today's session on which traders have focused include US Fed commentary related to the pace of asset purchases and the developments in Cyprus and Italy.

- UK movers [Kingfisher +2% (FY results above ests), Bellway +1.8% (raised dividend by 50%), Resolution +1.5% (raised dividend); Kazakhmys -8.5% (FY profits declined y/y), Savills -5.5% (share placement), Woseley -2.5% (H1 sales declined y/y)]
- Germany movers [Lanxess +2% (renewed takeover speculation), Evotec +1% (guided FY13 sales higher y/y); Rheinmetall -3.5% (broker commentary), Hochtief -1% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [EDF +2.5% (broker commentary), Ingenico +2% (issued 2015 targets); France Telecom -0.50% (cautious CEO commentary)]
- Spain movers [Telefonica -4% (placement of Treasury stock)]
- Switzerland movers [Valora -1.5% (FY profits declined y/y)]

Speakers:
- ECB's Nowotny stated that Cyprus was a special case and not a model for other bailouts.
Capital controls should be in place for as short as possible. He was not concerned about Italy, Luxembourg and Slovenia
- ECB's Coeure (France) noted that lots of work needs to be done on Cyprus and it would take time for the country to recover . He reiterated view that Cyprus situation was unique and sees no risk of contagion or turbulence in Euro Zone. He also reiterated view that ECB will do everything it can to defend Euro and that ECB was limited in its mandate but would continue to support Cyprus banking sector. On France he noted that there was no reason to believe that French banking sector had problems like Cyprus but France had work to do to reduce its deficit and improve competitiveness
- Cyprus Fin Min Sarris commented that capital controls likely to be two-tiered and he would meet banks to discuss controls. He added that controls would be lifted once situation appeared to normalize and could be in place for "a matter of weeks". He did expect outflows once the banking sector reopened and noted that hit to large deposits could be around 40% (in line with market expectations). He did not expect a second bailout for Cyprus
- Bank of Spain (BOS) monthly Bulletin: Economic contraction to continue in Q1 at less steep pace and saw signs of improvement in domestic demand. Spain forecasted 2013 GDP at -1.5% with growth seen in 2014 at +0.6%
- Luxembourg Central Bank stated that it saw 'ambiguous' developments in country's financial sector and downside risks to domestic economy. Its banking sector output declined in Q4
- DMO published results of consultation meeting with GEMMS (Gilt Edged Market Makers) which expressed preference for syndicate deal in the April-June quarter. Investors supported extending the curve; GEMMS made cade for longer-lead time for "super long"
- Fitch downgrades rating Cyprus Popular Bank [CPB.GR] and Bank of Cyprus [BOC.CY] to 'D' and 'RD'; Hellenic Bank remains on Negative Watch
- Fed's Fisher (hawk, non-voter) spoke from Abu Dhabi that the US economy has begun to slowly move forward although not accelerate. He believes US economy would keep growing at 2-3% pace and added that liquidity in US was not being utilized. On Cyprus he noted that the case was unique, was the country was a depository for hot money. He noted that it was difficult in Cyprus rescue in what it signaled to other depositors around the world. He ended that it was depositors that help to run economies
- RBA Gov Stevens: Difficult to figure out what the potential impact will be from Cyprus
- Poland Central Bank's Bratkowski stated that he saw room for more rate cuts if economic recovery was delayed but signs of an economic recovery would end rate cut cycle. He added that he believed an April rate cut would be unlikely and that a decline in inflation to 1.0% would not be decisive for rates
- Germany Debt Agency noted that it planned to issue 65B in debt in Q2 and confirmed capital market issuance at 44B and money market issuance at 21B
- EU report on Croatia membership: Croatia given final approval to become EU's 28th member in July
- BOE Bank Liability Survey noted that funding volumes were unchanged in Q1. Lenders expected deposits and capital levels to rise in Q2. Lenders also expected long-term bond issuance to rise in 2Q
- S&P: Europe to stay entrenched in recession in 2013
- IMF resident rep Peiris commented that it was helping Philippines Central bank on rate corridor and cautioned that Philippines must monitor asset prices and real-estate financing closely. The IMF to maintain 2013 and 2014 GDP forecasts at 6.0% and 5.5% respectively
And saw both 2013 and 2014 inflation averaging 3-4%
- China NDRC confirmed to cut fuel prices
- North Korea military units said to have entered 'combat readiness' with missiles that could hit US and South Korean targets, such as US bases in Hawaii and Guam.

Currencies:
- Dutch Fin Min Dijsselbloem tried to downplay his comments that the Cyprus bailout plan could prove a template for other countries with overly large banking sectors. Risk sentiment remained bruised from his comments on Monday and could prove tough to fix investor psyche. EUR/USD hovered around its 200-day mvg avg of 1.2880 throughout the session. Dealers continue to wait for the formation of a government in Italy. Another election is inevitable in the near future with Italy being of more importance to Europe than is Cyprus
- The GBP currency was steady in the session. UK inflation expectations for the year ahead were steady in March, despite the plunge in sterling pound currency.
- Remarks from BOJ Gov Kuroda earlier today have prepared the market for more asset purchases in early April when the central bank meets next. However, JPY movement was more limited due to the Japanese fiscal year-end at the end of the week. The USD/JPY probed towards the 94.00 level on several occasions during the European morning.

Political/In the Papers:
- (CY) Eurogroup Chief Dijsselbloem: Was not aware of the term 'blue print' until now - financial press: Note: The comments follow earlier remarks by the official in which he said that the bank restructuring program in Cyprus could be used as a template for the rest of the EMU
-(CY) Spokesperson for EuroGroup Chief denies that Dijsselbloem described the Cyprus bailout as a "template" for bank restructuring - financial press
- (CY) Cyprus Central Bank: All banks to remain closed until Thurs, Mar 28th
-(CY) Russia Fin Min Siluanov: may resume talks with Cyprus on revising loan package, currently proposed Cyprus loan terms would amount to a 10% writedown
-(IT) Moody's declines comment on chatter of possible Italy downgrade; Italy Treasury declined comment on market speculation
-(IT) Bersani to meet with Italy President Napolitano on Thursday March 28th to discuss outcome of talks on forming a government - Italy press
-(US) Fed Chairman Bernanke: Easy monetary policy is bolstering the US economy and helping other nations as well
- (US) Fed's Dudley: Fed is falling well short of its inflation and employment goals; Must watch asset prices closely, sees the leveraged loan and high yield markets right now as 'frothy'

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (BR) BRICS Summit Takes Place in South Africa
- (SE) Sweden Central Bank Gov Ingves with member Svensson at LSE conference
- (EU) EU's Barnier on audit reform in Brussels
- (ES) Spain Feb YTD Budget Balance: No est v -12.7B prior
- (EU) ECB announces allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 06:30 (UK) Business Sec Cable
- 06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell HUF50B in 3-Months Bills
- 06:30 (UK) DMO to sell 1.0B in 5% 2025 Gilts
- 06:30 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-Month Bills
- 07:00 (UK) Mar CBI Industrial Reported Sales: 13e v 8 prior
- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Feb Property Prices M/M: No est v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.3% prior
- 07:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing

 

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