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Wednesday March 27, 2013 - 10:36:44 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Risk aversion picks up momentum as Italy's Bersani struggles to form govt under mandate; Italy has soft cover ratios in 5-year and 10-year auction EU Market Update: Risk aversion picks up momentum as Italy's Bersani struggles to form govt under mandate; Italy has soft cover ratios in 5-year and 10-year auction
Wed, 27 Mar 2013 6:20 AM EST

- Moody's: EU's awkward handling of Cyprus's bailout had put extra pressure on the bloc's sovereign ratings
- Fresh round of Italy sovereign downgrade rumors circulate as Besani tried to formulate a govt

- Luxembourg Govt defends its financial sector size
- (CY) Cyprus Fin Min Sarris: Uninsured Laiki (Popular) Bank depositors could see haircuts of up to 80%; Uninsured depositors may not get payouts for as much as 7 years; Reiterates banks to reopen on Thursday.
-(CY) Fitch places Cyprus sovereign rating on watch negative
- EUR/USD hits 4-month lows below 1.28
- Italy has soft cover ratios in 5-year and 10-year auction

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Apr GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: 5.9 v 5.9e
- (DE) Germany Feb Import Price Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.6%e

- (CH) Swiss Feb UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.26 v 1.15 prior
- (FI) Finland Mar Consumer Confidence: 10.2 v 9.6 prior; Business Confidence: -9 v -9 prior
- (FR) France Q4 Final Gross Domestic Product Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e
- (TW) Taiwan Feb Leading Index M/M: 1.1 v 1.1% prior; Coincident Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.3% prior
- (ES) Spain Feb Adjusted Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -8.0% v -10.0%e; Real Retail Sales Y/Y: -10.6% v -8.8% prior
- (ES) Spain Mar Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.7%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.7%e
- (CH) Swiss Mar KOF Swiss Leading Indicator: 0.99v 1.04e
- (SE) Sweden Mar Consumer Confidence: 2.8 v 1.0e; Manufacturing Confidence: -10 v -8e; Economic Tendency Survey: 95.4 97.0e
- (TR) Turkey Mar Consumer Confidence: 74.9 v 76.7 prior
- (EU) ECB: 1.8B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.05B prior; 118.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 128.9B prior
- (AT) Austria Jan Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v +0.6% prior; Y/Y: 2.2 v 2.5% prior
- (SE) Sweden Feb Trade Balance (SEK): 7.1B v 2.6Be
- (SE) Sweden Feb Household Lending Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.5%e
- (SE) Sweden Feb Retail Sales M/M: 1.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 2.1%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Industrial Orders M/M: -1.4% v +0.6%e; Y/Y: -3.3% v -5.0%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Industrial Sales M/M: -1.3% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: -3.4% v -6.1% prior
- (ES) Spain Jan Current Account: -2.7B v +4.9B prior
- (UK) Q4 Current Account: -14.0B v -12.5Be
- (UK) Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (UK) Q4 Final Total Business Investment Q/Q: -0.8% v -1.2%e; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.4% prelim
- (IT) Italy Jan Retail Sales M/M: -0.5% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -3.0% v -3.0%e
- (PT) Portugal Mar Consumer Confidence: -55.3 v -56.3 prior; Economic Climate Indicator: -3.9 v -4.2 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Business Climate Indicator: -0.86v -0.79e; Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence: -23.5 v -23.5e; Economic Confidence: 90.0 v 90.5e; Industrial Confidence: -12.5 v -12.0e ; Services Confidence: -6.7 v -6.5e

Fixed Income:
- (RU) Russia sold RUB9.9B vs. RUB9.9B indicated in 2027 OFZ bond; Yield: 7.4% vs. guidance of 7.38-7.43%
- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK10B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $505M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.64% vs.$300M prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $451Min 3-month USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.64% vs. $6.8B prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 9.1B 3-Month Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75% vs. 8.3B
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 6.91B vs. 5.0-7.0B indicated in 2017 and 2023 BTP Bonds
- Sold 3.91B vs. 3.0-4.0BB indicated range in 3.5% Nov 2017 BTP Bond; Avg Yield 3.65% v 3.59% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.22 x v 1.61x prior
- Sold 3.0B v 2.0-3.0B indicated range 4.50% Nov 2023 BTP bonds, Avg yield 4.66% v 4.83% prior; bid to cover 1.33x v 1.65x prior


FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,396,
DAX -0.60% at 7,833, CAC-40 -0.70% at 3,722, IBEX-35 -1.2% at 7,893, FTSE MIB -0.90% at 15,348, SMI -0.20% at 7,786, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,554

- European equities are broadly lower, amid continued concerns about the political situation in Italy. There is also some caution with regards to Cyprus, as banks are due to reopen on Thursday' session. Additionally, uncertainty remains with regards to the size of the haircuts which may be applied to certain bank deposits in Cyprus. Spain's IBEX-35 and Italy's FTSE MIB have continued to underperform, tracking the rise in peripheral yields. Banks are broadly lower led BNP, Deutsche Bank and UniCredit. UK banks have outperformed, as the BoE suggested that the capital requirement for the sector was below some estimates in the market. Resource related firms are trading mixed, amid the decline in commodity prices.

- UK movers [May Gurney +27% (takeover offer), Rockhopper Exploration +4% (considering cash return to shareholders), Tui Travel +4% (guided FY results at top end of range), Tullow Oil +1% (takeover chatter), Tesco +1% (broker commentary) ; ICAP -6.5% (guided FY results at lower end of range), Topps Tiles -5.5% (reported decline in H1 LFL sales), Costain Group -2.5% (offer for May Gurney)]
- Germany movers [Sky Deutschland +2% (broker commentary); IVG -30% (examining financing measures), SMA Solar -11% (FY profits declined y/y), Telefonica Deutschland -2% (broker commentary), Deutsche Bank -2% (concerns related to Libor probe, S&P placed rating on watch negative), Prosieben SAT -1.5% (broker commentary), Salzgitter -1.5% (broker commentary), Allianz -1% (acquisition)]
- France movers [LVMH +2% (broker commentary); Safran -3% (share placement), BNP -2% (speculation that Belgium's government could lower stake), EADS -1.3% (Spain's to lower stake)]
- Italy movers [Mediaset +8% (FY results above ests)]
- Switzerland movers [Syngenta -0.50% (broker commentary)]

- Moody's Sovereign Analysts noted that EU's awkward handling of Cyprus's bailout had put extra pressure on the bloc's downgrade threatened sovereign ratings
and showed policymakers were overestimating their ability to contain the crisis. Moody's analyst added that policymakers appeared very confident that market conditions were benign enough and that they had the tools to avoid contagion to other peripheral economies and their banking systems. We think that that confidence might well be misplaced. Moody's had no comment on whether Italy and Spain, which both have negative outlooks on their respective Baa2 and Baa3 ratings, were particularly vulnerable to a downgrade after the Cypriot saga.
- Italy PD Party Bersani: Austerity is putting democracy at risk; Possibility of broad coalition does not exist. Asked 5-Star movement not to block attempt to form govt as he saw no lasting govt without him as PM. He did concede that the country was a mess and will have a difficult year ahead
- Italy PD's Bersani said to have offered Berlusconi's party the position of president of new parliamentary bilateral committee on reforms. The committee would seek to reform parts of the constitution. Also, Bersani could seek a parliamentary confidence vote.
- 5-Star Movement officials Crimi and Lombardi stated that the party would vote no in confidence vote for Bersani and ruled out possibility of confidence vote walkout to allow formation of Bersani govt
- BOE financial committee regulator (FPC) capital report noted that UK lenders had capital shortfall of about 25B at end of 2012 (30-60B was speculated). Banks should meet requirements by issuing new capital and restructuring balance sheets. Objective to achieve Basel III capital tier 1 ratio of at least 7% by the end of 2013. Some banks already had capital ratios above 7%. oan losses could exceed provisions by 30B; Bank conduct costs could exceed provisions by 10B; More prudent risk-weights would leave 12B capital shortfall. Recommends regular stress testing of UK banking system from 2014.
- EU-17 Document circulated in which it stressed that the Cyprus bailout was not a 'template' for Euro rescues its bailout was tailor-made to its very exceptional situation. Members pledged full completion of banking union
- Luxembourg Govt stated that it was concerned by statements on viability of financial sector size to GDP and noted that its banking sector was an important gateway to attract investment
- Slovenia PM Bratusek: Not proper to compare Slovenia to Cyprus, deposit are safe, no need to panic. An increase to VAT may be the least harmful measure but public finance situation was "bad" in Slovenia
- Belgium Govt said to be selling stake in companies to reduce debt levels
- Fitch raises Philippines Sovereign Rating to BBB- (**Note: first major rating agency to raise Philippines to investment grade)
- Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco: Sovereign upgrade could attract more capital inflows into country; have deep toolkit to address matters

- Risk aversion continued to weigh upon the Euro in the session. The EUR/USD pair remained below its 200-day mvg avg and hit 4-month lows below 1.2800 as iTlay continued to struggle to form a govt. PD's Bersani failed to convince the 5-Star Movement to support him. It all up to whether Bersani can reach an agreement with Berlusconi.
- Yields in Europe displayed classes risk-off theme with core Europe moving lower (TRhe German Jun Bund contract at fresh contract highs above the 145 figure. The Italian 10-year was up approx 7bps with fresh rumors of a possible sovereign downgrade making the rounds.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) EU parliament member calls on Parliament to include a bail in for depositors in excess of 100K as part of the new banking resolution law - press
- (EU) Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem: The Cyprus bailout fits into the new approach to bank rescues; Has not seen much panic in the financial markets over the past week; Have no regrets about his comments in press interviews earlier this week; A levy on wealth can be defended in principle
- (EU) Germany lawmaker indicates that the depositor bail in process for Cyprus is not a template for other EMU nations - financial press
-(EU) Spain PM Rajoy: Does not favor using deposits for recapitalizing banks, prefers ESM recaps
- (UK) There are renewed concerns that cold weather conditions may push the economy into a "triple-dip" recession - London Telegraph
- (AU) Australia RBA Releases Financial Stability Review: Household caution unchanged despite asset price recovery; Euro area continues to face significant challenges; Global conditions have improved over the past six months
- (CN) China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Maintaining high export growth is difficult - financial press
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BoJ) likely to start open ended asset purchases immediately at meeting next week (in line with prior speculation); Will consider setting new target for bond purchases as it looks at buying longer dated JGBs
-(JP) BOJ to initiate new bond buying targets to ensure that the scale of its monetary easing has increased transparency - Japan press; BOJ to create a single purchasing target by combining its two asset purchase facilities; The issue will be discussed in detail at the next BOJ policy meeting on April 3 and 4.
- (JP) Japan cabinet approves 13.2T stopgap budget for FY13 - financial press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (BR) 2013 BRICS Summit Takes Place in South Africa
- (PT) Sweden PM Reinfeldt in Portugal
- (ES) Spain Jan Total Housing Permits M/M: No est v -18.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -44.3% prior
- (BR) Brazil Feb Central Govt Budget (BRL): No est v 26.1B prior
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 22nd: No est v -7.1% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Inflation IGP-M M/M: 0.3%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 8.1%e v 8.3% prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 07:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Manufacturing PPI M/M: No est v -0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.7% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.7%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.8%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Core CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) Feb Pending Home Sales M/M: -0.3%e v +4.5% prior; Y/Y: 8.7%e v 10.4% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Preliminary Trade Balance: -$1.2Be v -$2.9B prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Net Outstanding Loans (MXN): No est v 2.288T prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flows
- 11:30 (US) Fed's Rosengren (voter) speaks on economy in NH
- 11:30 (US) Fed's Pianalto (non-voter) speaks on monetary policy in Cleveland, OH
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota (non-voter) speaks on monetary policy in MN
- 12:00 (CO) Colombia Feb National Unemployment Rate: No est v 12.1% prior; Urban Unemployment Rate: 12.3%e v 13.1% prior
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 10 Year Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Construction Activity M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.9% prior
- 16:30 (MX) Mexico Feb YTD Budget Balance (MXN): No est v 21.1B prior
- (IT) Italy 's Bersani reports to President Napolitano on govt talks




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