Wednesday March 27, 2013 - 19:27:17 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Friday 28 March 2013
Global market sentiment: Risk-aversion spread in Europe last night. The Cyprus bailout has raised market concerns deposit holders in other fragile European banking systems will want to avoid being similarly penalised and take flight. Also concerning is the lack of government in Italy, the Democratic Party leader Bersani saying there was no chance of a broad coalition. The Eurostoxx 50 closed down 1.0%, EZ bond markets hit even harder (see below). The S&P500 has been resilient, currently down 0.2%.
Interest rates: The US 10yr treasury yield fell from 1.92% to 1.83% - a one-month low – on safe-haven buying as Eurozone contagion took hold. Plenty of dovish Fedspeak may have contributed. A 5yr auction saw average demand. Eurozone peripheral bonds were sold aggressively, the Greek 10yr yield up 71bp, Italy’s up 21bp, Portugal +18bp, Spain +14bp. Australia’s 3yr bond yield fell from 2.99% to 2.88%, while the 10yr yield fell from 3.54% to 3.43%.
Currencies: The US dollar index is up around 0.4% to an 8-month high. Underperformer EUR fell from 1.2855 to 1.2751 – a 5-month low. USD/JPY fell from 94.91 to 94.02. AUD fell from 1.0477 to 1.0418. NZD fell from 0.8386 to 0.8343. AUD/NZD hovered just above the recent 1.2480 low.
US pending home sales fell 0.4% in Feb, their third decline in four months although Jan’s 3.9% rise means that the level of sales was still the second highest of the cycle so far last month. Lack of supply of decent homes for sale continues to be cited as a constraining factor on the market.
Fedspeak: Cleveland Fed President Pianalto would favour slowing asset purchases if recent 200k per month payrolls increases were to be maintained. Boston Fed President Rosengren would raise or lower the purchase pace in response to the incoming data.
Canadian CPI jumped from 0.5% yr to 1.2% yr in Feb as clothing prices jumped 4.0% in the month after falling more than 7% in the previous three months. Gasoline prices were also up sharply. The BoC core rate rose from 1.0% yr to 1.4% yr.
Euroland business climate index slipped from –0.72 to –0.86 in March, its first fall since September last year. Similarly, economic confidence dipped from 91.1 to 90.0 in March, its first fall since October. Just like in 2011 and 2012, early year confidence is starting to fall away; it remains to be see whether 2013 sees yet new lows reached due to Italian politics, Greek bailout delays and Cyprus bailout (with Spain and France future risks in our view), as was the case later in 2011 (recession approaching, Greek exit speculation, interbank freeze) and 2012 (recession deepening, LTRO optimism fading, Spanish and Italian bond yields spiking).
German GfK consumer confidence was unchanged at 5.9 in the mislabelled April survey, conducted in early March.
UK GDP growth was unrevised at –0.3% in Q4. The current account deficit narrowed from £15.1bn to £14.0 bn in Q4, while the decline in business investment was revised from –1.2% to –0.8%. in the quarter.
Event risk today: NZ has building permits and credit data, while Australia also has the latter. These should be minor for the currencies. US data tonight includes a GDP revision. Looking ahead during the Easter holiday in Australia and NZ (Friday and Monday) there will be China’s PMI releases.
NZD/USD 1 day: 0.8380 should cap the NZD today, this downward correction likely to extend below 0.8345.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: A sustained rise above 0.8355 would put the NZD back into positive-trend mode, below suggests further weakness to 0.8100. Global surprises will drive it in the near term but we expect a fresh high by late 2013 on NZ’s improving economy.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening down 3bp at 2.86%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: Following the current consolidation, which could yet extend lower to 2.80%, a rise above 3.20% should ensue.
AUD/USD 1 day: 1.0480 should cap the AUD today, this downward correction likely to extend below 1.0420.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: Remains inside an 18-month consolidation triangle defined by 1.0500 above and 0.9900 below. We expect the eventual break to be upwards.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 28 March 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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