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Friday March 29, 2013 - 11:25:56 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Quiet Good Friday Holiday caps a bullish Q1 quarter for stocks

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Quiet Good Friday Holiday caps a bullish Q1 quarter for stocks
Fri, 29 Mar 2013 6:15 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Far East markets mixed despite record high close in the S&P500 index
- Japan Unemployment come in higher than expected; Industrial Production disappoints
- Chinese Yuan currency at 6.2094 for fresh post-revaluation high against USD
- Italy President pondering next move in formation of sustainable govt
- US and most other markets closed for Good Friday holiday
- US Economic releases include personal income and spending data, University of Michigan confidence

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Mar 25th (RUB): 7.50T v 7.50T prior
- (TH) Thailand Feb Current Account: +$1.6B v -$0.5Be; Total Trade Account Balance: $575M v -$2.8B prior; Overall Trade Balance: $1.6B v $1.0B prior
- (TH) Thailand Feb Business Sentiment Index: 51.2 v 51.1 prior
- (FR) France Feb Producer Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.0%e
- (FR) France Feb Consumer Spending M/M: -0.2% v +0.4%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -2.0%e

- (HU) Hungary Jan Final Trade Balance: 316.2M v 317.9M prelim
- (HU) Hungary Feb Producer Prices M/M: 0.4% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 0.8% v 0.8%e
- (TR) Turkey Feb Trade Balance: -$7.0B v -$8.8Be
- (NL) Netherlands Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v -0.9%e
- (EU) Mar Eurocoin: -0.12% v 0.20% prior; points toward 6th straight quarterly contraction in the Euro Zone
- (IT) Italy Feb PPI M/M: +0.2 v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 0.7% prior
- (CZ) Czech Feb Money Supply Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.6% prior
- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.8%e
- (IT) Italy Mar Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 2.3% v 2.3%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e
-(GR) Greece Jan Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -16.4% v -8.3% prior; Retail Sales Value: -16.2% v -8.0% prior

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
- European equity and futures markets closed in observance of Good Friday


Speakers:
- France Fin Min Moscovici: 2013 Budget deficit to GDP ratio will be likely 3.7% vs. 3.0% official target

- France Stats Agency (INSEE) stated that 2012 Public deficit 4.8% of GDP v 4.5% govt target (vs. 5.3% in 2011), End 2012 public debt was 90.2% of GDP
- Italy President Napolitano might announce govt decision on Saturday, Mar 30th. Today's round of consultations aimed at whether PD's Bersani has support to form govt. If President decides that Bersani did not have support , he could hold another round of consultations after Easter to appoint someone else
- Italy Interior Min Cancellieri said to be among candidates to lead next Italian govt should President Napolitano decide Bersani did not have enough support. The PD and PDL parties said to be working on a 'plan B' for temporary govt led by Cancellieri and aimed at changing election law before returning to polls. Franco Gallo (President of Constitutional Court) was also listed as a possible PM while Bank of Italy Dir Saccomanni wais less likely to be name as PM possibility
- Russia Deputy Econ Min Klepach commented that Russia was not likely to see GDP growth of 5% in the coming years due to negative dynamic in oil and gas exports slowing growth. Monetary easing was required to support bank lending
- Russia Central Bank Deputy Chairman Shvetson commented that an interest rate cut would not be helpful without matching govt policy action as lower rates would spur inflation in Russia.
- Russia Dep Fin Min Moiseyev: 2013 inflation could exceed 6% forecast in event of poor harvest
- China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC): Urging banks to increase loans to small business
- China Premier Li Keqiang: Cannot only pursue GDP growth, need to also expand domestic demand
- Thailand Finance Ministry raised its 2013 GDP growth forecast to 5.3% from 5.0% prior while cuttings its export growth forecast to 9.0% from 10.5%. Thailand noted that private consumption has increased and might rise 9.3% in 2013. It also noted that consumer prices might rise 3% in year
- Former BOJ official Iwata stated that he believed hitting Japan's 2% inflation target within two years was impossible and it would likely take five years to achieve goal. He added that the BOJ should increase total JGB purchases by 2.0T per month
- Japan Ministry of Finance (MOF) confirms no FX intervention in March

Currencies:
- FX traders failed to appear in a listless, quiet European session on this Good Friday holiday
- The EUR/USD hover just above the 1.28 handle well contained in a tight 20-pip range. The price action said to hinge on whether Italian President Napolitano can find a politician that could form a sustainable govt and roll the dice with another national election.
- USD/JPY is headed for its 3rd consecutive week of losses as traders square some Yen shorts ahead of next week's historic BOJ decision - the first under the new Governor Kuroda - on Apr 4th.
- Japan long end of curve yield at 10-year lows with the30-year JGB bond yield down 5.5bps to 1.505% and the 20-year yield down 4bps to 1.365%

Political/In the Papers:
- France President Hollande affirmed that companies would have to pay a 75% tax on salaries over 1.0M
- ECB confirmed that deposits have been leaving Cyprus before the crisis; Feb outflows totalled 1.0B, similar to Jan
- Japan Fin Min Aso: Beating deflation will take time; Exports environment for Japan firms still uncertain
- Japan PM Abe does not intend to visit the controversial Yasukuni shrine
- Spain govt said to has requested that EU allows an easing of its 2013 deficit target from 4.5% of GDP to 6.0% attributing request to weaker than expected economic performance.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves
- 08:30 (US) Feb Personal Income: +0.8%e v -3.6% prior; Personal Spending: 0.6%e v 0.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb PCE Deflator M/M: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb PCE Core M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.3% prior
- 09:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank (NBP) Mar Inflation Expectations: 1.7%e v 2.2% prior
- 09:00 (US) Mar NAPM-Milwaukee: 56.0e v 56.5 prior
- 09:55 (US) Mar Final University of Michigan Confidence: 72.6e v 71.8 prelim
- 13:00 (IT) Italy's Bersani is said to schedule meeting with President Napolitano

Weekend
- (CN) China Mar HSBC Manufacturing PMI: No est v 50.4 prior

**Reminder: Europe clocks 'spring ahead over the weekend***


 

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14:00 EZ- Draghi Speech
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23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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Fri 24 Nov
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