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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI Manufacturing remain subdued; Italian unemployment improves while Euro Zone hits fresh EMU record high of 12%

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI Manufacturing remain subdued; Italian unemployment improves while Euro Zone hits fresh EMU record high of 12%
Tue, 02 Apr 2013 5:45 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- RBA leaves rates at 3.00% (as expected), still sees scope to cut further but removed the reference to substantial easing of policy as a result of previous decisions in the pipeline
- Nikkei225 at one-month lows as JPY currency continued retracement from recent lows
- Cyprus stock exchange reopens after extended holiday (**Note: Bank reopened last Thursday)
- Spain Net Unemployment change registers first decline since Dec
- European Manufacturing PMI generally disappoints but France, Germany and Euro Zone show slight improvement from preliminary readings
- Italy Unemployment Rate better than expected and rebounds from 20-year highs
- Euro Zone Unemployment hits 12% for fresh EMU record high
- USD/CNY tests below 6.20 level for fresh 19-year highs for the Chinese currency


***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) leaves key rates unchanged (as expected) Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.25%; Overnight Deposit Rate unchanged at 4.50%; Overnight Auction-Based Repo expected unchanged at 5.50% (7th straight pause)
- (AU) Australia Mar RBA Commodity Price Index Au: 87.9% v 87.9 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: -7.5% v -6.5% prior
- (IE) Ireland Mar NCB Manufacturing PMI: 48.6 v 51.5 prior (first contraction since Feb 2012)
- (SE) Sweden Mar Swedbank PMI Survey: 52.1 v 50.6e
- (ES) Spain Mar Net Unemployment M/M: -5.0K v +30.0Ke (first decline since Dec)
- (DK) Denmark Feb Unemployment Rate: 4.6% v 4.7% prior; Gross Unemployment Rate: 6.0% v 6.0% prior
- (DE) Germany Mar CPI Saxony M/M: 0.6% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.5% prior
- (PL) Poland Mar Manufacturing PMI: 48.0 v 48.7e
- (HU) Hungary Mar PMI Survey: 55.7 v 54.0 prior
- (EU) ECB: 1.5B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 368.0M prior; 144.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 145.0B prior
- (ES) Spain Mar Manufacturing PMI: 44.2 v 46.2e (23rd straight contraction)
- (CZ) Czech Republic Mar Manufacturing PMI: 49.1 v 49.9 prior
- (CH) Swiss Mar PMI Manufacturing: 48.3 v 50.4e (1st contraction in three months)
- (IT) Italy Mar PMI Manufacturing: 44.5 v 45.3e (20th straight contraction and lowest reading since Aug 2012)
- (FR) France Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 44.0 v 43.9e (3-month high but 13th straight reading in contraction territory
- (DE) Germany Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 49.0 v 48.9e (lowest reading since Dec)
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Final PMI Manufacturing: 46.8 v 46.6e (20th straight monthly contraction)

- (IT) Italy Feb Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 11.6% v 11.8%e
- (DE) Germany Mar CPI Brandenburg M/M: 0.4% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3% prior
- (DE) Germany Mar CPI Hesse M/M: 0.3% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.5% prior
- (UK) Mar PMI Manufacturing: 48.3 v 48.7e (second straight contraction)
- (HK) Hong Kong Feb Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 22.7% v 17.7%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 21.9% v 14.7%e
- (UK) Feb Net Consumer Credit: 0.6B v 0.4Be; Net Lending: 0.9B v 0.4Be
- (UK) Feb Mortgage Approvals: 51.7K v 53.7Ke

- (UK) Feb M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.5% v +0.9% prior' Y/Y: +0.5% v -0.8% prior; M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized: 3.1% v 5.0%e
- (DE) Germany Mar CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.5% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.6% prior
- (DK) Denmark Mar PMI Survey: 52.5 v 60.3 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Unemployment Rate: 12.0% v 12.0%e (fresh EMU record high)
- (ZA) South Africa Mar Kagiso PMI: 49.3 v 52.8e
- (DE) Germany Mar CPI Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: 0.4% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.3% prior
- (BE) Belgium Feb Unemployment Rate: 8.1% v 8.2% prior

Fixed Income:
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.35B in 2023, 2041 and 2048 Bonds
- (EU) ECB allotted 124.9B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75%
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF946.2M in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.127% v -0.123%
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Months Bills; avg yield: 4.72% v 4.74% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.51x v 1.70x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency to sell total 3.02B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sold 1.406B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.027% v 0.044% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.62x v 2.49x prior
- Sold 1.61B in 6-month Bills; Avg yield 0.050% v 0.067% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.34x v 2.32x prior
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold total 2.59B vs. 2.0-4.0B indicated range in 3-month and 9-month Bills
- Sold 1.27B vs. 2.0B indicated in 3-month bills; Yield: -0.025% v -0.025% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 3.51x prior
- Sold 1.32B vs. 2.0B indicated in 9-month Bills; Yield: 0.000% v -0.013% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.35x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.80% at 6,465,
DAX +0.60% at 7,845, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3,751, IBEX-35 -0.30% at 7,900, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 15,293, SMI +0.60% at 7,855, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,560

- European equity markets are trading mixed, following the two day holiday break. Equities in Spain's and Italy have underperformed, amid the release of disappointing PMI manufacturing data. The FTSE 100 has outperformed on gains in shares of Vodafone. In Cyprus, the equity market has declined by over 1.5%, after being closed for two weeks. Banks are trading mixed. Laggards in the sector include BBVA and UniCredit. Resource related firms are mixed, in line with what has been seen with commodity prices. Key event risks for later in the week include central bank monetary policy decisions (BoJ, BoE and ECB) and US non-farm payrolls data

- UK movers [Vodafone +3.5% (renewed speculation related to stake in Verizon Wireless), Stobart +2% (raised guidance), Bowleven +2% (gas find)]
- Germany movers [E.ON +2.5% (broker commentary), GEA Group +2% (broker commentary); ThyssenKrupp -1% (concerns related to sale of Brazilianplant)]
- France movers [Zodiac +2.5% (H1 sales above ests) ;Alstom -2.3% (broker commentary)]
Italy movers [Banca Monte Paschi -5% (FY loss wider than ests)]

Speakers:
- Russia Central Bank commented in its rate decision that it saw inflation slowing towards 5.0-6.0% target in H2 2013
period but cautioned Inflation above target was a risk to inflation expectations. It would hold its next policy meeting in H1 of May.
- Spain Deputy Trade Min Garcia-Legaz: Part of the economy is doing well; GDP less dependent on domestic market
- Cyprus Finance Ministry issued its 3rd decree on controls and confirmed easing of daily transaction limits to 25K and raised limits on check payments to 9K a month. It noted that this 3rd decree to apply for two days
- Cyprus Central Bank: To unfreeze 10% of uninsured deposits; move agreed to by Troika
- Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) chief Rato reiterated view of its plan to sell 10-year bond in spring if market conditions were right
- Portugal Central Bank said to monitor loan-to-deposit ratio and to keep 120% loan to deposit ratio as adequate reference point (**Note: largest 8 banks avg 118%)
- Russia Energy Min: March oil production at 10.46M bpd, unchanged m/m
- Japan Fin Min Aso: Yen has corrected properly
- South Korea Central Bank (BoK) Mar minutes: One member called for rate cut
- India Trade Ministry stated that it would announce supplement to Foreign Trade Policy in 3rd week of April which would address concerns of exports
- North Korea stated that it was restarting operations at at its main Yongbyon nuclear complex that was previously shut down in 2007. North Korea said move was being made in line with a policy of "bolstering the nuclear armed force both in quality and quantity" as well as solving "acute" electricity shortages
- Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Concerned over North Korea re-starting nuclear facilities
- Bank of Korea Labor Union stated that the Gov pushing central bank for rate cuts

Currencies:
- FX markets still seemed in holiday mode with little volatility as the European participants returned from an extended weekend. Dealers noted that the weakness of the March PMI manufacturing data in Europe appeared to maintain negative EUR sentiment.
- The EUR/USD remained contained below its 200-day moving average and drifted towards session lows ahead of the NY morning. The pair approached the 1.2825 support level in the session. The EUR/CHF cross was quietly drifting lower which dealers are using as best barometer of EUR sentiment and fallout from Cyprus
- The JPY began the session firmer against the major pairs ahead of the BOJ 2-day monetary meeting (the first under Gov Koruda). The stronger JPY currency was just seen as positioning ahead of the rate decision. By the NY morning the yen reversed its strength and was slightly softer against the USD and Euro at 93.25 and 119.70 respectively
- The SEK currency was firmer as its PMI Manufacturing reading bucked the trend and strengthened in March.
- USD/CNY pair tested below the 6.20 level for fresh 19-year highs for the Chinese currency. The move followed PBoC's guidance of its daily central parity rate sharply down to an all-time new low. Dealers noted PBOC's recent moves in midpoints implied that
China's new leadership might favor a faster pace of yuan appreciation
to make the yuan more flexible under the capital account

Political/In the Papers:
-(CY) Creditors said to be weakening terms for Cyprus to allow it an extra year to come in line with its budget targets - financial press; Will be given until 2017 to achieve a targeted budget surplus of 4% and Cyprus hopes to extend that target to 2018
-(GR) Greece Central Bank Gov Provopoulos: Expects Greece bank recapitalization to be complete in a few weeks. Recapitalization deadline may be extended to the end of May.
-(GR) Greece announces further details to its National Action Plan for Youth to tackle unemployment; Offers training and work for 35.0K youth (under 29-yrs old)
-(ES) Spain govt reportedly to lower 2013 GDP forecasts to -1.0% vs -0.5% prior - financial press; Also Spain reported to continue discussions with the EU on new deficit target of 6% of GDP from 4.5% prior.
-(CN) Former-PBoC adviser/CASS economist Yu Yongding: China may encounter relatively large capital inflows - financial press
-(JP) Japan PM Abe: May be the case BoJ cannot achieve 2% inflation in two years; Currency correction is helping exporters competitiveness; Not demanding BoJ act recklessly to reach the inflation target. - addressing parliament

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IT) Italy Mar Budget Balance: No est v -12.5B prior; Budget Balance YTD: No est v -48.9B prior
- (CL) Chile Central Bank 1Q monetary policy report
- 06:00 (EU) ECB member Kranjec (Slovakia)
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Mar CPI Bavaria M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.4% prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2014 and 2023 bonds
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases (SMP)
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Mar Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.4%e v 0.6% prior' Y/Y: 1.3%e v 1.5% prior
- 08:00 (DE) Germany Mar Preliminary CPI Harmonized M/M: 0.3%e v 0.8% prior' Y/Y: 1.7%e v 1.8% prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Industrial Production M/M: -2.0%e v +2.5% prior; Y/Y: -2.4%e v +5.7% prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.7B in 3-month, 6-month, 9-month and 12-month bills
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:45 (US) Mar ISM New York: No est v 58.8 prior
- 10:00 (US) Feb Factory Orders: +2.9%e v -2.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) Durable goods revisions
- 10:00 (US)) Apr IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 45.5e v 42.2 prior
- 11:00 (EU) ECB's Coeure (France) speaks in Washington
- 11:00 World Bank chief Kim
- 11:20 (CA) Bank of Canada's Murray speaks at PIIE
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $70B in 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on Monetary Policy in North Dakota
- 12:00 (IT)) Italy Mar New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -17.4% prior
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks in Birmingham, AL
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (US) Mar Total Vehicle Sales: 15.30Me v 15.33M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: 12.08Me v 11.99M prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Mar Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.5 prior
- 21:45 (CN) China Mar HSBC Services PMI: No est v 52.1 prior

- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Begins 2-day monetary policy (1st under Gov Kuroda)
- (US) South Carolina Holds Primary Runoff Elections for House Seat

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Durable Goods
15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes
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Fri 24 Nov
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US- Early Closes

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 13:30 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing Statistic

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue -- 23:30 GMT US- Yellen Speech. Early evening. Looking for anything on policy


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:30 GMT US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed -- 19:00 GMT US- FOMC Policy Minutes. Key policy release


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