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Tuesday April 2, 2013 - 15:29:20 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: European, US Equities Rally After Monday's Sell-Off US Market Update: European, US Equities Rally After Monday's Sell-Off
Tue, 02 Apr 2013 11:10 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Mar CPI Bavaria M/M: 0.4% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4% prior
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Mar 30th w/w: +4.7%; y/y: 1.9%
- (DE) Germany Mar Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.3%e
- (DE) Germany Mar Preliminary CPI Harmonized M/M: 0.4% v 0.3%e; Y/Y:1.8% v 1.7%e
- (BR) Brazil Feb Industrial Production M/M: -2.5% v -2.0%e; Y/Y: -3.2% v -2.4%e
- (RU) Russia Q4 GDP: 2.1% v 2.1%e; 2012 Annual Real GDP Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.4% prior
- (CZ) Czech Mar Budget Balance (CZK): 14.0B v 5.6B prior
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Mar 30th: +3.5% y/y; Mar MTD: 0.8% m/m; Mar MTD: 3.0% y/y
- (US) Mar ISM New York: 51.2 v 58.8 prior
- (US) Feb Factory Orders: 3.0% v 2.9%e
- (US) Apr IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 46.2 v 45.5e

- US equities are back to the upswing this morning after yesterday's slide, although trading volumes are still off. The S&P500 is only a few points away from its all-time high of 1,576.09 from October 2007. European equities are at their highs after a mixed bag of economic data overnight. As of writing the DJIA is up 0.70%, the S&P500 is up 0.68% and the Nasdaq is up 0.84%.

- EUR/USD traded right up to its 200-day moving average around 1.2880 overnight and then reversed course, weighed down by another round of poor eurozone economic reports. The resignation of the Cyprus finance minister raised some eyebrows (recall that he had tried to resign in the midst of the March crisis). EUR/USD is around 1.2830 currently. Sterling has tumbled from just shy of 1.5260 to trade around four-session lows of 1.5128.

- Gold is off more than 1% this morning to trade just above $1,580. SocGen published a special this morning titled "The End of the Gold Era." Among other points, SocGen notes that since the beginning of January 2013, gold ETFs have dumped roughly 140 tonnes of gold. SocGen wrote that its base case 2013 forecast for gold is for $1500/oz on average, and $1375/oz by end of 2013.

- The FT has published a new take on the continuing negotiations to break up Verizon Wireless: Verizon and rival AT&T would team up on a joint "break-up" bid to buy Vodafone. The FT estimates that Vodaphone is worth $245B, which would make a potential takeover deal one of the biggest in the past decade. Recall that back on Feb 25th, Verizon's CFO said his company would be a willing buyer of Vodafone's 45% stake in Verizon Wireless. Various analysts have poured cold water on the story.

- The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services have changed course and stated that there will not be benefit cuts or premium hikes next year, and that the cost per person to climb more than 3%. Back in mid February, CMS published preliminary 2014 reimbursement rates (for public comment) that the amount it pays per person for the popular coverage could fall more than 2 percent in 2014. Shares of health insurance names jumped before the close of trade yesterday and have gained even more ground this morning. HUM is up approx 18% in total since just before the official announcement and up 8% this morning alone. Other major insurers are up 10-15% since the announcement.

- Ford and Chrysler reported slightly better-than-expected March auto sales, buoyed by greater demand for sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks, while GM fell short of estimates.

- Shares of Apple are up despite Goldman Sachs removing the name from its Conviction Buy List. Goldman warned that Apple may find it difficult to hit consensus expectations in the March and June quarters. Shares of HPQ are down 5% after Goldman cut the name to a sell from neutral.

***Looking Ahead***
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell combined $70B in 4-Week and 52-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks on Monetary Policy in North Dakota
- 12:00 (IT) Italy Mar New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -17.4% prior
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Lockhart speaks in Birmingham, AL
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (US) Mar Total Vehicle Sales: 15.30Me v 15.33M prior; Domestic Vehicle Sales: 12.04Me v 11.99M prior
- 21:00 (CN) China Mar Non-manufacturing PMI: No est v 54.5 prior
- 21:45 (CN) China Mar HSBC Services PMI: No est v 52.1 prior
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Begins 2-day monetary policy (1st under Gov Kuroda)




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