Tuesday April 2, 2013 - 19:13:20 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Wednesday 3 April 2013
Global market sentiment: Sentiment in Europe was a little more positive following the Easter break with equity markets on the front foot despite the ongoing concerns. European manufacturing PMIs were all revised higher on the final readings for March with the UK also posting its first improvement this year. Despite the ongoing political impasse in Italy, record high unemployment in the Eurozone and the potential ramifications of the Cyprus bailout, Eurostoxx closed up 2.0% with the S&P 500 following behind up 0.7%.
Interest rates: The US 10yr yield moved steadily higher throughout the day from 1.82% to 1.86%, failing to sustain a move below its 100dma (1.83%) following an early dip below. In line with the improvement in sentiment, peripheral bonds rallied with Greece 10yr yields down 21bp, Spanish 10y -12bp and Italy -14bp. Portuguese debt, however, continued to be sold. Australia’s 3yr bond yield was unchanged at 2.89% and the 10yr down 2bp at 3.39%.
Currencies: The USD index is up modestly around 0.15% with EUR/USD down a touch to 1.2830 from 1.2870. USD/JPY rallied from 92.80 to 93.40. Commodity currencies outperformed with NZD leading the way up 0.67% versus the USD to 0.8426 and AUD/USD up 0.3% to 1.0457.
US factory goods orders rose 3% in Feb with a 0.8% rise in non-durables combining with the 5.6% (revised from 5.7%) jump in durables orders reported previously. Factory inventories rose 0.2%. US IBD-TIPP economic optimism rose from 42.2 to 46.2 in April, reversing most of the 5.1 pt fall in March. The rise was led by the economic outlook component, although federal policies and the personal financial outlook also picked up. US ISM-NY fell from 58.8 to 51.2 in Mar, replicating the declines in this index seen in the first half of 2012 and 2011 after an early year surge, that we suspect is more to do with seasonal adjustment issues than with underlying swings in economic activity (recall the national ISM factory index fell sharply in March too).
Euroland unemployment reached a new all-time high of 12% in revised Jan data and held there in Feb. A steady German jobless rate at 5.4% contrasted with higher French (10.8%) and Spanish (26.3%) unemployment rates although Italy slipped a tick to 11.6%. Also the factory PMI was revised from 46.6 to 46.8 in March, down from 47.9 in Feb. It has been running at sub 50 contractionary levels since Aug 2011, more or less corresponding to the period of shallow drawn out recession that officially began in the fourth quarter of that year.
German CPI edged down from 1.5% yr to 1.4% yr in the preliminary March report, its lowest since 2010.
Cyprus update. The troubled state now has until 2018 to implement its budget deficit reduction program, extended from 2017, after talks between the finance minister (who subsequently resigned) and the troika of ECB/EU/IMF officials finalising the detail of the revised bailout plan.
UK PMI factory rose from 47.9 to 48.3 in March, holding in the contractionary sub 50 zone after two 50+ readings at the turn of the year in Dec-Jan. Other data included a fall in new mortgages approved from 54.2k in Jan to 51.7k in Feb, its lowest since Sep last year, although mortgage outstandings rose £$0.9bn (and consumer credit was up £0.6bn) in Feb.
Event risk today: In Australia the Trade Balance for February is published along with the AiG services PMI. The NZ calendar is quiet. In the US tonight the ADP employment report will be watched closely ahead of this Friday’s non-farm payroll report whilst elsewhere, ECB and BoE monetary policy meetings (Thursday) will take focus.
NZD/USD 1 day: The break above 0.8400 opens up the path to 0.8480 with 0.8400 now support.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: A sustained rise above 0.8355 would put the NZD back into positive-trend mode, below suggests further weakness to 0.8100. Global surprises will drive it in the near-term bvut we expect a fresh high by late 2013 on NZ’s improving economy.
NZ 2yr swap yield: Opening unchanged at 2.87%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: Following the current consolidation, which could yet extend lower to 2.80%, a rise above 3.20% should ensue.
AUD/USD 1 day: 1.0480 continues to hold on the topside with downside corrections likely to find support at 1.0420.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: Remains inside an 18-month consolidation triangle defined by 1.0500 above and 0.9900 below. We expect the eventual break to be upwards.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 3 April 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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