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Wednesday April 3, 2013 - 03:41:36 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 03-Apr-2013 -0339 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
Solid pick up in the Dow (14662.01, +89.16, +0.61%) and the S&P 500 (1570.25, +8.08, +0.52%) last night. This is in line with our overall bullishness. The attributed news is good factory orders in the USA and Cyprus being given time till 2017-18 to meet the prescribed bailout targets.

Asia-Pac stocks are a little weak, though, ranging between -2.03% (Malaysia) and +1.66% (Japan). Malaysia is down on election fears. The Nikkei (12203, +199.78, +1.66%) has surprised with its recovery yesterday and further rise today. The price action has confused the charts and the Nikkei could range sideways between 12000-500 for a while unless the BOJ yanks it up through monetary easing. The Shanghai (2230) is stabilising with its overall downtrend since mid-Feb.

The Nifty (5748.10) rose well yesterday. We target 5850 in a couple of weeks.


COMMODITIES
Gold (Spot 1569) fell sharply yesterday and has dipped further today, breaking below the 1575 range support we had mentioned yesterday. Although the fall has been sharp and unexpected, it should be good for the Dollar and for the Rupee. There can be chances of seeing 1550 on the Weekly Candles now. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/goldcandle.shtml#candle

Brent (110.21) rose to almost 112 yesterday, but has fallen back. As suggested yesteday, it may consolidate between 109-112 for some time.


CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.2802) has been pushed down from its 200-day MA (1.2889) depsite the news that Cyprus has been extended time to fulfill its bailout obligations. A test of 1.2750-00 might be possible.

The Pound (1.5081) saw a sharp decline from an early high near 1.5258 as manufacturing slowed further. The fall makes it vulnerable to a re-test of last month's low of 1.4831. Our reading of a rise to 1.53-54 has been proven wrong.

Dollar-Yen (93.53) has bounced alongwith the Nikkei, as the Support at 92.50 mentioned yesterday has held. The outlook is unclear/ ranged between 92-95 now. The outcome of the BOJ Meeting tomorrow will be important. Kuroda has vowed to do end deflation.

The Aussie (1.0450) faces an important trend resistance on the Monthly charts near current levels, but if that is broken, it could move up to 1.0650 in the coming weeks. Good Support is seen at 1.0400.

The Rupee (54.2650) should continue to remain stable for some more days, ranged between 54.00-50.


INTEREST RATES
The BOJ Meeting ends tomorrow and the ECB and BOE meetings are also tomorrow. The markets will be focussed on what exactly Kuroda will do to combat deflation. There is some danger of disappointment given that the markets (Nikkei and Yen) have already moved a lot over the last few months.

The Germany-US 10-Yr Spread remains at -0.55%. We continue to see good Support at -0.65%. This might help limit the Euro's downside to 1.27-25. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/eurusddiff.shtml#eurusd

Fears of recession in the UK may pressurise the BOE to increase its QE from GBP 375 bln. Yields have been coming down since Feb and do not seem to have any immediate Supports nearby.

Overall, yields have come off in most countries in the last two months. We need to see stability and a bounce coming in soon in order to keep faith in economic recovery alive. While the recovery in the USA has more believers, Europe and UK continue to see negative growth. Growth in Japan is still weak, but there is some hope it will pickup based on BOJ stimulus.


DATA TODAY
0:30 GMT or 6:00 IST Australia Trade Balance
...Expected -1.00 $Bln ...Previous -1.06 $Bln

12:15 GMT or 17:45 IST US ADP Emp
...Expected 203 K ...Previous 198 K


DATA YESTERDAY
AU PMI
...Actual 44.40...Previous 45.60

CH PMI
...Actual 48.30 ...Previous 50.80

RBA Meeting
...Actual 3.00 % ...Previous 3.00 %

IN PMI
...Actual 52.00...Previous 54.20


EU PMI
...Actual 46.80 ...Previous 47.90

UK PMI
...Actual 48.30 ...Previous 47.90

EU Unemp
...Actual 12.00 % ...Previous 11.90%

 

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