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Wednesday April 3, 2013 - 10:21:08 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone CPI slows to lowest level since Aug 2010 ahead of Thurs ECB meeting

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Euro Zone CPI slows to lowest level since Aug 2010 ahead of Thurs ECB meeting
Wed, 03 Apr 2013 5:40 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-China: Mar PMI non-mfg rises to 55.6 from 54.5
-China: Mar HSBC PMI Services rises to 54.3 from 52.1
- Australia Feb Trade Balance a bit better than expectations but registers its 14th consecutive month of deficit
- Markets await decision from new BoJ Gov Kuroda on Thursday, JPY off 1-month highs while Nikkei225 Index surges 3%
- Australia Treasurer Swan: To reappoint RBA Gov Stevens for a 3-year term (**Note: standard would be a 7-year term)
- BOJ said to be leaning toward pushing forward the start of open-ended asset purchases immediately compared to prior view of Jan 2014
- Beijing govt unveils more details related to 20% capital gains tax on property sellers
- Thailand keeps interest rate steady as expected
- UK Mar PMI Construction misses expectations (47.2 v 48.0e)
- BOE Lending Survey suggested that small companies benefiting less than medium, large firms from FLS
- IMF reached agreement to contribute 1.0B to Cyprus bailout
- Euro Zone Mar flash CPI a touch hotter than expected at 1.7% but still lowest level since Aug 2010; ECB expected to hold steady on Thursday
- German 5-year BOBL auction seen solid despite yield being the lowest yield since Aug 2012

- Remainder of the week sees a full economic calendar with ADP employment today

***Economic Data***
- (NO) Norway Mar PMI Survey: 50.1 v 49.0e
- (RO) Romania Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.1% prelim; Y/Y: 1.1 v 0.3% prelim
- (TR) Turkey Mar Consumer Prices M/M: 0.7% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 7.3% v 7.0%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 5.8% v 5.8% prior
- (TR) Turkey Mar Producer Prices M/M: +0.8% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 1.8% prior
- (EU) ECB: 746M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 1.5B prior; 146.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 144.9B prior
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank (BOT) leaves Benchmark Interest unchanged at 2.75%, as expected
- (BR) Brazil Mar FIPE CPI Monthly: -0.2% v -0.2%e
- (NO) Norway Jan AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.6% v 3.6%e
- (CN) China Q4 Current Account Surplus revised lower to $45.1B from $65.0B prelim - FX Regulator SAFE
- (TW) Taiwan Mar Foreign Exchange Reserves: $401.9B v $404.1B prior
- (UK) Mar PMI Construction: 47.2 v 48.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar CPI Estimate Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.6%e, lowest level since Aug 2010
- (ZA) South Africa Sacci Business Confidence: 90.4 v 93.0 prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $1.2B in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.65% vs. $505M prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B vs. SEK3.5B indicated in 2023 bond; Yield: 1.8490% v 2.1564% prior
- (DE) Germany sold 3.28B in 0.5% 2018 BOBLs; Avg Yield: 0.33% (lowest yield since Aug) vs. 0.45% prior; Bid-of-cover: 1.90x v 1.93x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 -0.40% at 6,466
, DAX -0.10% at 7,933, CAC-40 -0.20% at 3,798, IBEX-35 -0.40% at 8,017, FTSE MIB -0.60% at 15,469, SMI +0.40% at 7,928, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,567

- Following the gains seen on Tuesday's session, European equity markets are mostly lower, led by declines on the Spanish IBEX-35 and Italian FTSE-MIB. European banks are mostly lower by RBS, Santander and UniCredit. Additionally, Greek banks are lower by over 5% on continued concerns related to their capital plans and exposures to Cyprus. Resource related companies are broadly lower, in line with the declines being seen for commodity prices. Overall traders are continuing to await events due later in the week, including rate decisions by the BoJ, ECB and BoE. Additionally, the government formation process in Italy remains in focus.

- UK movers [Thorntons +6% (raised outlook), Schroders +3% (broker commentary),Pennon Group +2.5% (takeover speculation); Ocado -2.5% (broker commentary), Vodafone -1.5% (Verizon played down merger speculation); ]
- Germany movers [BASF +1% (broker commentary), Most automakers are higher following the release of monthly US vehicle sales; United Internet -1% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Rexel +1.5% (broker commentary); France Telecom -3% (broker commentary), EADS -0.50% (buyback size below expectations)]
- Switzerland movers [Panalpina +11% (new CEO); Meyer Burger -2.5% (disclosed details related to capital raise)]
- Italy movers [Telecom Italia -3% (broker commentary)]

Speakers:
- IMF reached agreement to contribute 1.0B to Cyprus bailout
. Under the plan Cyprus would raise its corporate tax to 12.5% from 10.0% and raise personal income tax to 30% from 15% prior. The IMF noted that Cyprus would need extra 4.5% of GDP in measures to meet 4% Primary Surplus by 2018 and its welfare system to be reviewed. IMF labeled Cyprus program seen as 'challenging
- German FDP member Schaeffler said to want Bundestag President Lammert to ensure proper involvement of lower house in approving aid for Cyprus as German law stipulates that bailout must be approved in two-stage procedure. German Fin Min stated that legally possible to go through both stages in one plenary sitting
- Moody's commented that Slovakia worsening GDP outlook was a credit negative but its current credit profile remained in line with A2 rating
- Russia Central Bank Gov Ignatiev stated that he saw ground for inflation to decline in 2013 and also expressed serious concerned about the country's economic growth slowdown. He noted that the pace of inflation slowed in March and saw 2013 inflation between 5.0-6.0%. He stressed that Russia was committed to meeting its inflation target. Lastly he noted that an unfavorable investment climate key reason for capital outflows
- Russia Fin Min Silunaov commented that the govt was concerned over slowing growth as high interest rates were partially to blame for low investment. He also noted that Russia would not go ahead with plan to tax deposits. He later added that it would begin buying forex on open market (deposit auctions) for reserve fund in H2 of 2013 to prop up RUB currency (ruble) liquidity
- Politicians in Italy said to expect to vote for new president on April 18th (**Note: President Napolitano's term is due to end in mid-May)
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci commented that its economic recovery had began in Q1 and pledged to continue to support balanced growth with monetary tools. He noted that monetary easing from last Sept would now reflect on the economy
- Slovenia Fin Min Cufer: Country's maturing debt is not a serious problem
- EU Commission stated that Ireland 2013 growth prospects remained unchanged and confirmed that initial talks on country's exit from bailout strategy had begun
- BOE quarterly Lending Survey: Q1 growth of lending to corporates slowed; seen little changed in Q2; Survey suggested small companies benefiting less than medium, large firms from FLS
- India PM Singh commented that GDP slowing to 5% was disappointing but saw its slump as temporary due to global economic slowdown. He noted that growth could be stuck at 5% unless govt acted swiftly and that inflation remained a problem
- China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) commented that interest rate differentials would drive foreign capital to China and the country did face the possibility of risk of sudden capital outflows. It would steadily press forward with capital account liberalization. Too weak JPY currency (yen) could trigger capital outflows and impact confidence on Japanese govt debt; Short-term JPY currency depreciation could lift the Japanese economy
- China PBoC Q1 monetary Policy Committee Report reiterated that inflation was seen as basically stable but warned on uncertain inflation outlook. It reiterates its pledge to strengthen and improve liquidity management and continue with interest rate and exchange rate reforms. Global economy was recovering but reiterated it saw uncertainties a complicated global economy. It pledged stable monetary conditions and would use various monetary policy tools. The PBoC also reiterated its pledge for basically stable Yuan FX rate
- China Foreign Ministry: Hopes dialogue can be use to resolve situation on Korean Peninsula
- Russia stated that it saw the risk of Korea situation spinning out of control

Currencies:
- FX Market looked towards numerous key central bank policy meetings over the next 24 hours with the USD maintaining a steady tone for the time being. Decisions are expected from BoJ, BoE and ECB on Thursday.
The EUR/USD was range bound and well contained below its 200-day mvg avg. Dealers noted that perhaps an hourly close above 1.2850 could have the pair retest that mvg avg at 1.2883 and gun for stops above 1.29 handle.
- Dealers noted that the JPY should also remain on the softer side ahead of the BoJ rate outcome, where more policy easing was widely expected. The USD/JPY has rebounded from 1-month lows registered on Tuesday of 92.56. The pair was above 93.50 ahead of the NY morning on Wednesday.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Coeure: Exchange rate could trigger ECB action but would not alter policy target; ECB is not concerned about Swiss National Bank interventions
-(IT) Italy PD Party Bersani: Concerned about the economic situation in Italy, broad coalition Govt would be the wrong choice, unwilling to form a grand coalition with Berlusconi party; New elections will not resolve Italy's problems
- (IT) Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard believes Italy is likely to have to hold new elections in June
-(ES) Spain Budget Minister: 2013 will be the final year of the crisis; deficit revision is not significant; No decisions yet made on taxes for 2014, will be dependent on discussions with the EU on deficit
-(ES) Spain Catalonia region chief Mas: Will not stop plan for sovereignty referendum in exchange for improved financial conditions - El Pais; PM Rajoy had sought to ease financial conditions of Catalonia in exchange for Mas cooperation
- (ES) Catalan autonomous region Econ Min: Austerity in the Southern European regions could hurt the Northern economies; Highlights funding markets for Catalonia remain closed and a budget agreement could help Catalunya come back to the market
-(UK) Approx 100 Tory MPs have written to PM Cameron demanding legislation guaranteeing a referendum on Britain's future in Europe after 2015 - UK press
-(US) According to strategists at Goldman Sachs, the 10-yr Treasury yield could rise to 2.5% by year end - US financial press; Cites US economic growth.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IR) Iran Nuclear talks in Kazakhstan (first of 4 days)
- (RU) Russia to sell combined RUB30B in 2018 and 2023 OFZ bonds
- 06:00 (UK) BOE member Haldane
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Q1 BER Business Confidence: No est v 46 prior
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Feb Inflation Y/Y: No est v 1.7% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell combined CZK10B in 2019 and 2028 bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (RU) Russian Parliament discuss Nabiullina for Central Bank Gov position
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 29th: No est v 7.7% prior
- 08:15 (US) Mar ADP Employment Change: +200Ke v +198K prior
- 09:00 (IT) Italy PM Monti with Fin Min Grilli
- 09:00 (BR) Brazil Mar PMI Services: No est v 52.1 prior
- 09:30 (SG) Singapore Mar Purchasing Managers Index: 49.8e v 49.4 prior; Electronics Sector Index: 52.5e v 52.1 prior
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Mar Foreign Currency Reserves (DKK): No est v 483.2 prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar ISM Non-Manufacturing: 55.5e v 56.0 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $3.00-3.75B in note
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flows
- 12:00 (IC) Iceland Central Bank Minutes
- 12:00 (IC) Iceland Central Bank Releases Minutes
- 14:30 (US Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Los Angeles
- 17:00 (US) Fed's Bullard to Introduce Lecture in St. Louis
- (JP) BOJ Interest Rate Decision: First meeting under Gov Kuroda

 

 

 

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