Thursday April 4, 2013 - 03:34:27 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 04-Apr-2013 -0332 GMT
Some weaker data (lower ADP and Services ISM) and concerns over North Korea are cited as reasons for profit-taking in the Dow (14,550.35, -111.66, -0.76%). Immediate Support at 14400 needs to hold for the immediate uptrend to continue. A break, if seen, could yield a deeper correction towards 14200. Tomorrow's NFP data will be a key driver.
Most of Asia-Pac is in the red today apart from New Zealand (+0.34%) and Taiwan (+0.37%). Korea is down 1.62% of course. The Nikkei (12160, -1.62%) is yo-yoing for the last few days. This is healthy profit-taking that should continue for some more days for the good of the market. China is closed today-tomorrow for the Qing Ming Festival.
The Nifty (5672.90) fell strongly yesterday. It might be pushed down towards 5650-00 in line with the fall in global equities. We retain our long-term bullishness with good Support seen in the 5600-5500 region.
Gold (Spot 1541) has crashed below the 1560-50 Support region. The price action suggests serious stop loss selling. A long-term top may now well be in place. Silver (Spot 26.72) has been falling for some days, but has some temporary Support near 26.00. The long-term outlook is bearish though, targeting 25 and lower.
Brent (107.19) has fallen sharply below 109 and could target 106. Copper (3.3070) too has crashed and seems to have formed a long-term top.
Commodities have seen a large crash across the board. That they have fallen so sharply even as the Korean tensions escalate is a worry for the commodity complex. This is a big development and we should prepare for even lower prices in the coming months.
The Euro (1.2845) is holding well above 1.2800 ahead of the ECB Meeting. We see Supports at 1.2750-00. A rise past 1.2900 will be good for the Euro.
Dollar-Yen (92.95) has come off again ahead of the BOJ announcement. The charts are tilted towards bearishness with Resistance at 93.50. At the same time Support is seen at 92.60. The Euro-Yen Cross (119.43) trades lower. It might fall further in the near term to test long-term Support near 117.70-50.
The Pound (1.5135) rose to 1.5158 yesterday after having crashed to 1.5075 the day before. the price action is very choppy and uncertain. One day up, one day down. It seems the market may enter a sideways range for a while.
The Aussie (1.0475) trades higher but has an important Resistance in the 1.0475-0500 region. This needs to break in order for the Aussie to push higher towards 1.0650. Whether the Aussie can continue to rise despite the fall in commodity prices needs to be seen.
The Singapore Dollar (1.2374) has strengthend over the last 6-7 days, and might consolidate near current levels for a while now. The USD-BRL (2.0209) looks bullish on the Weekly Chart.
Dollar-Rupee (54.4350) could rise towards 54.50-60, but has good Resistance there. The Offshore markets are trading bear 54.34, though.
BOJ, BOE and ECB meetings today. The ECB is acknowledged to have a tough job at hand. There is hope for a rate cut from the ECB which does have some room to cut rates since the official rate is 0.75% and the Libors are trading at much lower levels. Take a look at
Bank of Japan has to live up to expectations of an increase in its asset purchase programme from Yen 15 trln to 20 trln, and even expectations of "open ended" purchases. The BOE is expected to keep its QE unchanged at GBP 375 bln.
The US 10-Yr (1.80%) has dropped sharply, but is coming close to its important Support at 1.75% from which it can start moving up again. The German-US 10-Yr Spread (-0.51%) has risen sharply from the levels of -0.55% and -0.60% seen in the last few days. Our oft-mentioned long-term Support at -0.65% is likely to hold in the medium term. This can be good for the Euro as well as for the markets in general.
5:07 GMT or 10:37 IST BOJ Meeting
...Expected <0.10 % ...Previous <0.10 %
11:00 GMT or 16:30 IST BOE Mtg
...Expected 0.50 % ...Previous 0.50 %
11:45 GMT or 17:15 IST ECB Meeting
...Expected 0.75 % ...Previous 0.75 %
Australia Trade Balance
...Actual -0.18 $Bln ...Previous -1.22 $Bln
US ADP Emp
...Actual 158 K ...Previous 237 K
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