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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European PMI Services mixed; Spain bond auction results seen as positive; yen weakens after BOJ's Kuroda delivers on bold easing

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: European PMI Services mixed; Spain bond auction results seen as positive; yen weakens after BOJ's Kuroda delivers on bold easing
Thu, 04 Apr 2013 5:46 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- BoJ announced quantitative and qualitative easing as promised; moves policy target to monetary base from call rate
- Nikkei reversed losses of 1.8% to end session +2.2%; USD/JPY surged 2.5% to above 95.50
- Australia Feb Retail Sales beats expectations with largest rise since Nov 2009
- Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC non-voter): Fed could begin reducing bond buying by the summer, could end bond buying in 2013
- North Korea army receives final approval for nuclear attack on US; in return US to send missile defenses to Guam
- -Cyprus Fin Min: Cyprus to extend capital controls by 3 days
- German Bundesbank investigating allegations Deutsche Bank hid losses during financial crisis
- Major European PMI Services mixed. Continental Europe disappoints while UK comes in better as country looks to avert a triple-dip recession for noe
- Spain sells more than indicated in 3-tranch bond offering
- France 10-year yield at record low in auction today
- BOE and ECB policy decisions today. Neither are expected to change interest rates in the near term with major focus on policy biases.


***Economic Data***
- (IE) Ireland Mar NCB Services PMI: 52.3st v 53.6 prior; lowest since Aug 2012
- (SE) Sweden Mar PMI Services: 47.3 v 54.2e; first contraction since Dec 2012
- (CZ) Czech Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: -4.7% v -2.0%e
- (DK) Denmark Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: -0.7% v -0.9%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -1.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Feb Retail Trade Y/Y: -1.4% v -2.0%e
- (ES) Spain Mar Services PMI: 45.3 v 44.3e, 21st straight monthly contraction
- (EU) ECB: €233M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €746M prior; €139.2B parked in deposit facility vs. €146.2B prior
- (IT) Italy Mar PMI Services: 45.5 v 43.3e
- (FR) France Mar Final PMI Services: 41.3 v 41.9e
- (DE) Germany Mar Final PMI Services: 50.9 v 51.6e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Final PMI Services: 46.4 v 46.5e ; PMI Composite: 46.5 v 46.5e

- (NO) Norway Feb Retail Sales Volume M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v +2.7% prior
- (UK) Mar PMI Services: 52.4 v 51.5e; highest since Aug 2012)
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb PPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4%e
- (IC) Iceland Feb Final Trade Balance (ISK): 7.6B v 7.6B prelim
- (CY) Cyprus Mar Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.7% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.6% prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €4.31B vs. €3.0-4.0B indicated range in 2016, 2018 and 2021 bonds

- Sells €3.06B in 3.25% April 2016 Bono; Avg Yield 3.019% v 5.106% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.86x v 2.38x prior; Max Yield 3.046% v 5.13% prior; Tail 2.7bps
- Sells €590M 4.1% July 2018 Bono; Avg yield 3.598% v 4.193% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.09x v 2.9x prior; Maximum Yield 3.619% v 4.242% prior; Tail: 2.1bps
- Sells €660M in 5.5% 2021 Bonos; Avg Yield 4.477% v 5.517% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.06x v 1.77x prior; Max Yield 4.496% v 5.555% prior; Tail 1.9bps
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total €6.97B vs. €6.0-7.0B indicated rate in 2020, 2021 and 2022 Oats
- Sold €2.49B in 3.5% Apr 2020 OAT; Avg Yield 1.26% v 1.46% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.86x v 1.98x prior
- Sold €2.47B in 3.75% Apr 2021 OAT; avg yield 1.54% v 3.61% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.0x v 3.1x prior
- Sold €2.006B in 2.25% Oct 2022 OAT; Avg Yield 1.94% (record low) v 2.10% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.1x v 2.20x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF60B in 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,411,
DAX +0.40% at 7,903, CAC-40 +0.80% at 3,783, IBEX-35 +1.4% at 8,017, FTSE MIB +1.3% at 15,402, SMI -0.40% at 7,847, S&P 500 Futures +0.50% at 1,556

- European equity markets are trading mostly higher as traders assess the additional easing measures out of the Bank of Japan. Markets are also awaiting the rate decisions from the ECB and BOE, in addition to Friday's US monthly payrolls report. Today's upside has been capped by weaker than expected PMI services data from France and Germany, which offset better data out of Italy, Spain and the UK. Banks are mostly higher, led by shares of BNP and Santander. Portuguese banks have also outperformed. Resource related firms are mixed, amid the weakness in commodity prices.

- UK movers [Wincanton +17% (interim management statement), Darty +11% (to exit Spain), Domino's Pizza +5.5% (13-week sales +12.3%), Rightmove +2% (broker commentary); Heritage Oil -4% (negative ruling in Uganda), De La Rue -2% (broker commentary]
- Germany movers [Fraport +4% (broker commentary), Fresenius Medical +4% (stock buyback), Kloeckner +2.5% (broker commentary), Deutsche Telekom +1.5% (Q1 T-Mobile USA metrics); Kuka -4% (broker commentary), Wacker Chemie -1% (broker commentary), Stada -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Alcatel-Lucent +7% (broker commentary), Publicis +2.5% (broker commentary), Vivendi +1% (new CEO for SFR unit); EADS -1.5% (share placement)]
- Italy movers [Telecom Italia +2% (merger speculation); Banca Generali -5% (share placement)]
- Switzerland movers [Schmolz+Bickenbach +11% (restructuring plan)]
- Portugal movers [Portugal Telecom +4% (broker commentary)]
- The Netherlands movers [ING +3.5% (broker commentary), USG +2.5% (asset sale), Randstad +2.5% (acquisition)]

Speakers:
- Russia Central Bank Dep Gov
reiterated view that inflation to slow towards 5.0-6.0% target range in late 2013
- Cyprus Central bank issues 4th decree, an extension of previous rules with no new capital control laws
- Hungary Central Banker Matolcsy stated at an extra-rdinary press briefing that it had launched a funding for growth program to help SMEs that seeks to emulate BOE FLS (no details provided). He added that he opposed foreign currency loans and needed to focus on CPI and stability as priorities. Central bank must help the Govt on the economy
- BOJ Gov Kuroda first press conference noted that today's policy announcement would change expectations drastically as all steps taken were needed to hit the 2% inflation target. He added that it might end policy before 2% target was achieved if price stability is confirmed, the BOJ would not hesitate to act to adjust monetary policy if necessary and would not take action in an incremental manner. There was limited scope for BOJ to expand JREIT purchases due to market size but to buy JGB's with 10-year and longer maturities in a balanced manner and not disrupt markets. He was not worried over any surge in long-term interest rates and could have room to purchase ETF's. He reiterated that he had no concerns of asset bubble in stocks or bonds at this time. Lastly he noted that currency would weaken when monetary easing takes place
- BoJ provided details on its new scheme. It would buy ₯6.2T of bonds over rest of April and purchase around in ₯7.5T JGBs per month from May. Monthly purchases of JGBs with maturities over 10 years ₯800B, ₯3.4T for JGBs with maturities of 5-10 years, ₯3.0T for JGB with maturities of 1-5 years, ₯220B for JGBs with maturities under 1 year. Set bimonthly purchases of floating rate JGBs at ₯140B, sets bimonthly purchase of inflation-indexed JGBs at ₯20B
- Japan PM Abe: BoJ gov Kuroda has fulfilled his expectations with the BoJ action
- Japan Econ Min Amar commented that the BOJ decision was a bold step and moving in line with PM's Abe directives; Govt must continue with fiscal reconstruction efforts. JPY currency softness reflected how markets perceived BOJ steps. BOJ policy was not fiscal financing
- Japan Fin Min Aso commented that the market's reaction to BOJ decision was in line with expectations and he expected the BOJ to continue easing to achieve the 2% inflation target
- Japan Your Party chief Watanabe stated that he favored reconfirmation of Kuroda as BOJ chief for full term (**Note current term was temporary until April 8th to replace Shirakawa's resignation)

Currencies:
- The session was all about the JPY currency which continued to soften following BOJ rate decision and moved above the 95.50 level by the early part of the session. Dealers noted that BOJ outcome provided a positive surprise, especially as they would buy long-term JGBs by ₯7.0T monthly and with the BOJ adopting monetary base control. The longer end of JGB curve hit fresh 10-year lows while the 10-year posted a record low at 0.425%.
- The EUR/USD remained contained in recent ranges but faced headwinds from disappointing PMI Services data from France, Germany and the Euro Zone. All eyes on the ECB press conference to see whether Draghi would open to the door for further easing.
- The GBP/USD rebounded from session lows of 1.5033 following a better PMI Services data to trade above 1.5080. The data raised hoped that the UK would avert a triple-dip recession. No changes in policy seen by the BOE later today.
- FX dealer also noting that the situation on the Korean Peninsula was a real and clear danger to risk appetite.
- Spot gold was off another $13/oz to approach critical long-term support at $1,525 (a level tested numerous time in 2011-12 period)

Political/In the Papers:
- BOJ Decision: Left interest rates unchanged (as expected); to combined existing two bond-buying programs; To now target monetary base vs. Old view of targeting o/night call rate; to double monetary base and purchase₯7.0T in bonds at maturities up to 40-years

- (CY) During Wed's US session there was speculation that Cyprus could extend capital controls for up to another 7 days
- (EU) Some institutional investors have started to question the optimism related to the euro zone - US financial press
-Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE]: Germany's Bundesbank is said to have launched a probe of Deutsche Bank over hidden losses incurred during the financial crisis. The German Bundesbank responded to article and noted that it would not divulge any measures pertaining to individual institutions but did examine all accusations against banks to see if they were valid
- (IT) PD and Pdl politicians to meet next week regarding presidential candidates - Italian Press
- (IT) Italy Five Star Movement's Grillo: There is still no room for an agreement with Bersani
- (PT) Portugal PM: Govt must follow through on the bailout program, Portugal continues to get positive feedback on bailout performance Notes that the opposition party calls for a no confidence vote creates political instability; Opposition proposal to renegotiate the bailout deal would just lead to a second bailout.
-(US) Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC non-voter): Fed could begin reducing bond buying by the summer, could end bond buying in 2013; Economic data has been encouraging but more solid evidence is needed to begin lowering bond purchases; Seeing evidence that the 'new normal' interest rate is lower than in times past, lending program similar to the BOE would probably not be helpful in the US.
-(US) US Fed's Bullard (hawkish, FOMC voter): Prefers to see more data before considering tapering bond purchases; Feb could start to taper bonds purchases before substantial improvement in jobs outlook if it were comfortable projecting consistently strong jobs growth; Encouraged by recent data, news has been good; The Fed policy is 'pushing a lot of investors towards higher risk investments'.
-(US) Columbia University Professor Michael Woodford believes quantitative easing (QE) will persist forever amid slow growth rates

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IR) Iran Nuclear talks continue in Kazakhstan
- (CY) Troika in Cyprus
- 06:00 (JP) BOJ briefing for economists
- 06:00 (EU) OECD Q4 GDP Q/Q: No est v +0.3% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -1.4K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 14.1% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Feb Industrial Production M/M: No est v -1.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v -3.3% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Up to CZK10B in 12-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) BOE Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave both Interest Rates and Asset Purchase Target (APT) at 0.50% and £375B respectively
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Mar 29th: No est v $522.4B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Feb Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v -3.0% prior; Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v -4.1% prior
- 07:30 (US) Mar Challenger Job Cuts: No est v 55.4K prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.0% prior
- 07:30 (US) Apr RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 47.1 prior
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Central Bank March Real Effective Exchange Rate
- 07:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Main Refi Rate unchanged at 0.75%; leaves Deposit Facility Rate unchanged at 0.00%
- 08:00 (NL) Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem speaks in Dutch Parliament on EcoFin meeting
- 08:30 (US) Weekly Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 353Ke v 357K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.050Me v 3.050M prior
- 08:30 (EU) ECB'S Draghi holds post rate decision press conference

- 08:45 (US) Fed members Evans and Lockhart speak on Monetary Policy in Dayton, Ohio
- 09:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank Gov Olsen
- 09:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Vehicle Production: No est v 229.3K prior; Vehicle Sales: No est v 235.1K prior;
Vehicle Exports: No est v 31.7K prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Consumer Confidence: 97.7e v 95.5 prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:30 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on economy
- 10:45 (IT) Italy's Bersani to meet PM Monti
- 11:00 (US) Fed to buy $1.25-1.75B in bonds
- 11:00 (US) Treasury 3-year, 10-year and 30-year refunding announcement
- 11:30 (EU) ECB's Coeure in Paris
- 12:30 (US) Fed's George speaks on Economy in El Reno, Oklahoma
- 17:00 (US) Fed's Yellen speaks in Washington
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Producer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.5% prior

 

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