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Friday April 5, 2013 - 03:36:06 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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Morning Briefing : 05-Apr-2013 -0334 GMT

GOOD MORNING!


EQUITIES
The Dow (14606.11, +55.76, +0.38%) rallied a wee bit yesterday. A test of Support at 14450-400 could still happen. As mentioned, that needs to hold in order to prevent a deeper correction towards 14250-200. Today's NFP data is going to be imporant after the not so good ADP employment data the day before.

The Nikkei (13062, +3.38%) has opened gap up and climbed higher on follow-through buying after the BOJ awed the market yesterday. A further rise towards 13500-14000 might be envisaged. Most of the rest of Asia-Pac is in the red though. The market may be worried that a weaker Yen might impact their exports adversely?

The Nifty (5575.75) has fallen sharply over the last two day. We could see a test of 5500 before a bounce.


COMMODITIES
Gold (Spot 1550.84) has bounced slightly from yesterday's low of 1540. There is some long-term Range-Support in the 1540-25 region on the Weekly Candles. This could hold for some time, but Gold could be under pressure to break the Support unless it rises past 1650. Gold looks particularly vulnerable because it has fallen inspite of increased global liquidity.

Brent (106.53) fell to almost 105 yesterday and could test 103 again, which is a long-term range support over the last two years. There is also a long-term rising trendline Support onthe Weekly Line charts near that level. It might not break easily. Take a look at the last chart on the following page:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/brentcrudema.shtml#ma


CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.2925) has recovered sharply after yesterday's dip to the 1.2750 Support. The Pound (1.5222) has also recovered from its intra-day low of 1.5033 yesterday. Both the ECB nor the BOE have left rates unchanged yesterday. But, with even Draghi admitting that there is downside risk to economic growth, the Euro could remain under pressure unless it rises past 1.30-31. The Pound may be able to rise to 1.5375 if it manages to break past 1.5275.

The Yen (97.07) has shot up further and there could be chances of seeing 100 also.

The Aussie (1.0405) has come off to test Support at 1.04. This needs to hold if the Aussie wants to rise towards 1.05-06 in the longer term. Else, it could be vulnerable to yet another fall towards 1.0250. Perhaps the weakness in the Yen will help Aussie bounce.

Dollar-Rupee (54.8850) had risen strongly yesterday. It might well test 55.00 and 55.25 today as stocks could dip a litte more before bouncing. We see chances of Resistance at 55.25 holding.


INTEREST RATES
The US 10-Yr (1.76%) has come down to our long-term Support target and could rise from here. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00

The Germany-USA 10-Yr Spread (-0.52%) is finding Support above -0.60% but could dip towards more important Support at -0.65% should the US 10-Yr move up.

The Japanese 30-Yr (1.04%) has tanked further and could fall below 1.0% easily. The Japanese Yield Curve is being flattened tremendously by the BOJ action. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/jpydiff.shtml#sindiff

Increased liquidity in Japan could find its way to other parts of the world as well.


DATA TODAY
9:00 GMT or 14:30 IST EU Retail Sales
...Expected -0.30 % ...Previous 1.25 %

10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU GDP
...Expected -0.60 % ...Previous -0.60 %

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US NFP
...Expected 201 K ...Previous 236 K

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Unemployment Rate
...Expected 7.00 % ...Previous 7.70 %

12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST CA Labour Force
...Expected 7.60 K ...Previous 50.70 K

13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST US Trade Balance
...Expected -44.60 $ Bln ...Previous -44.45 $ Bln

14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST CA PMI
...Expected 52.30 ...Previous 51.10

 

DATA YESTERDAY

BOJ Meeting
...Actual <0.10 % ...Previous <0.10 %

BOE Mtg
...Actual 0.50 % ...Previous 0.50 %

ECB Meeting
...Actual 0.75 % ...Previous 0.75 %

 

 

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