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Friday April 5, 2013 - 09:55:29 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: European Govt yields fall across the board with France, Belgium, Netherlands and Austria 10-year all at fresh record lows EU Market Update: European Govt yields fall across the board with France, Belgium, Netherlands and Austria 10-year all at fresh record lows
Fri, 05 Apr 2013 5:25 AM EST

- The Nikkei 225 reached multi-year highs of 13,225 in early trade while USD/JPY hit fresh trend high of 97.16 before giving back moves
- huge spike in JGB yields from 0.33% to 0.58% with trading halted on two occasions. Dealers cited North Korea tensions as a factor
- France, Belgium, Netherlands and Austria 10-yr bond Govt yields hit fresh record lows

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Feb Preliminary Leading Index CI: 97.5 v 97.3e; Coincident Index CI: v 92.1 v 91.9e
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply Narrow w/e Apr 1st (RUB): 7.41T v 7.50T prior
- (FI) Finland Jan GDP Indicator WD: -2.3% v -1.7% prior
- (HU) Hungary Mar FX Reserves: 35.5B v 35.9B prio
- (UK) Mar Halifax House Prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; 3M/Y: 1.1% v 1.1%e
- (HU) Hungary Feb Preliminary Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 2.9% prior; Y/Y: -1.1% v -0.9%e
- (CH) Swiss Mar Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF): 438.3B v 427.0Be (Record high)
- (AT) Austria Mar Wholesale Price Index M/M: -1.1% v +0.6% prior; Y/Y: -1.3% v +1.2% prior
- (SE) Sweden Feb Service Production M/M: 0.9% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.4%e
- (UK) Mar New Car Registrations Y/Y: 5.9% v 7.9% prior
- (CZ) Czech Mar International Reserves: $44.4B v $45.4B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Retail Sales M/M: -0.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.2%e
- (IC) Iceland Mar Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 8.9B v 7.6B prior

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B indicated in 2026, 2032 and 2042 bonds


FTSE 100 -0.70% at 6,300,
DAX -0.20% at 7,804, CAC-40 -0.20% at 3,717, IBEX-35 +0.60% at 7,895, FTSE MIB +0.80% at 15,280, SMI -0.40% at 7,734, S&P 500 Futures -0.20% at 1,551

- European equity markets are trading mixed as traders assess the rise in volatility related to Japanese government bonds, following the additional easing measures out of the BoJ. Investors are also focusing on the US non-farm payrolls report which will be released later today. The Italian FTSE MIB and Spanish IBEX-35 have outperformed, amid gains in peripheral government bond prices. The FTSE 100 is underperforming and lower for the third straight session. Most European banks are trading higher, amid outperformance in shares of Santander and UniCredit. Resource related shares are mixed, in line with what has been seen for commodity prices. Shares of Glencore and Xstrata are lower by over 2%, as the companies continue to seek regulatory approval for their merger transaction in China. The larger European airlines have tracked the weakness seen in their Asian counterparts, amid the bird flu concerns in China (Air France -6.5%, Easyjet -4.5%, Lufthansa -4%).

- UK movers [Punch Taverns +10% (guided FY results in line with expectations), ENRC +5% (broker commentary), Drax Group +2.5% (broker commentary) ; Ladbrokes -5% (broker commentary),EasyJet -3% (tracked weakness in Asian airlines on bird flu concerns), Asos -2.5% ( broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Munich Re +2.5% (broker commentary); Lufthansa -3.5% (tracked weakness in Asian airlines on bird flu concerns), Gerresheimer -3% (broker commentary)]

- ECB's Coeure
(France): Growth in EMU was slowing but qualitative economic indicators suggested stabilization of economy. Transmission of policy remained problematic in large part of the Euro zone. He added that absence of negative surprises justified holding rates steady. EU inflation was dropping steadily and is diverging from target
- BOE Economist Dale commented that UK economy would be in a far worse state without QE. He added that QE did have diminishing returns while its impact was variable
- Greece public sector restructuring said to be incomplete due to delays in implementation and the full Troika report on country likely to be delayed. Eurogroup unlikely to decide on loan tranche next week
- WTO's Lamy: 90% of Europe's growth to come from outside the region (e.g. exports) over the next decade. Europe cannot count on growth for years to come
- Spain Govt preparing bailout for highway operators facing bankruptcy which could add to 2013 budget deficit as the Govt liability could be as high as 3.5B
- Spain's Bad Bank (Sareb) said to target 5.6B profit in its 15-year business plan. Sareb to post loss in 2013 and forecasts profit of 700M in 2013-17 period and profit of 4.2B to be generated in 2022-27 period
- Spain Catalonia MAS regional coalition party refuses to support budget proposal. Catalan Left chief Junqueras said not to back 3.2B in cuts and sought regional deficit to GDP target of 2.0% vs. 1.5% planned
- Czech Central Bank Minutes noted that the majority of board members agreed risks were tilted towards need for slightly easier monetary policy as Euro-Zone debt woes hit domestic sentiment. Domestic economic activity was more subdued than forecast and anti-inflationary as household consumption fell morer than expected. It also noted that the decline in net exports did not bode well for recovery. It reiterated that directly influencing FX rate was an effective tool in small and open economy where rate were at zero. FX Intervention to lift import prices and spur spending and Koruna would dampen negative external shocks
- Fitch: Banks in Italy impairment charges expected to stay high
- BOE financial committee regulator (FPC) March Minutes saw risk of spillover from Cyprus banking crisis and needed to closely monitor investors' risk appetite and exuberance. It noted that striking that better-capitalized banks had upped lending since Mid 2012. Some members concerned that 7% capital cushion might be insufficient but was a near term objective
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its economic assessment in April Monthly to Economy has stopped weakening and showing some signs of pick-up
- Japan chief cabinet Sec Suga commented that it was closely watching bond market movements (**Note: JGB's had their largest intra-day move in 15 years today)
- Former PBoC advisor Yu Yongding commented that Japan monetary easing might not be helpful to Japan as it would not stimulate domestic demand because it will result in JPY currency depreciation and increase cost of raw materials (which are mostly imported)
- Indonesia Central Bank's Nasution: Not easy to raise interest rates
- Shanghai govt closes all live wholesale poultry markets and kills all birds at a market where the new bird flu strain was found in pigeons sold for meat
- EU spokesperson Mann: Global powers seeks clear and concise response from Iran; country needs to completely reassure that its program is not pursuing weapons
- Iran nuclear negotiator Bagheri replied that it had presented a 'comprehensive plan to global powers today

- Bond markets saw some volatility in Asia thanks to numerous factors that simmered on Wednesday. Asia saw a significant repositioning following the BoJ's bold policy moves. During the Asian session there was a huge spike in JGB yields from 0.33% to 0.58% with trading halted on two occasions. Dealers cited North Korea tensions as a factor. A steady hands from the ECB and BoE and another disappointing US jobless claims prompted some record low yields in Europe with France, Belgium, Netherlands and Austria 10-yr bond Govt yields all hitting fresh record lows.
- USD/JPY hit fresh trend highs in Asia at 97.19 (highest since Aug 2009. The pair consolidated its move during Europe.

- EUR/USD stayed above its 200-day moving average . the pair recovered from 4-month lows below 1.2750 on Thursday. Dealers noted that ECB press conference had a dovish tone but there was also some indication that the ECB were ready to act to support the economy if necessary. Short-covering resulted after Draghi appeared to calm market concerns that the Cyprus bailout not a template for EMU.

Political/In the Papers:
- (CY) Draft of Cyprus bailout deal sets 2017 primary surplus at 3% of GDP and 2018 at 4% fo GDP - financial press
- (EU) ECB's Draghi: There is no plan B for the euro, the ECB has shown its determination to fight all and any redenomination risks; discussion on rates was "extensive," consensus was to leave rates unchanged; Asset purchases are much more difficult for the ECB; Reiterates full allotment for tender operations remains in place for as long as needed.
-(EU) Reportedly in Thursday's policy meeting ECB avoided discussions about a potential small business lending plan because no formal proposal has been put together yet - financial press
-(EU) Goldman Sachs: The ECB has opened the door for a rate cut - blog post
- (EU) ECB's Coeure: Bank depositor bail-ins should only be used as a last resort
- (US) Fed's Yellen (dove, FOMC voter): Encouraged by recent signs that economy is improving; Adjusting the pace of asset purchases in response to employment data will minimize the risk of market disruption and help express Fed's intentions; Housing is recovering in a very convincing manner.
-(US) Fed's George: Fed has the tools to address and curb inflation, question remains whether it can do it 'in time'; Policy carries much risk by unsettling markets and inflation expectations; FOMC policy does still need to be easy, but not as loose as current policy
-(US) Fed's Lockhart: MBS market is handling the Fed purchases well; BOJ program will help everyone assuming it works; Reiterates the FOMC is unlikely to raise interest rates before 2015
- (US) Fed's Evans (dove, FOMC voter): High bar exists in pulling back on bond buying; QE could be concluded if a period of good growth developed.
- (CN) US CDC is working on a vaccine for the H7N9 bird flu - financial press; According to earlier reports, 14 cases of the strain have been found in humans all in Eastern China resulting in 5 deaths; CDC is working closely with Chinese authorities
- (CN) Beijing in discussions with developers to rein in property prices - Chinese press
- (JP) Japan's lower and upper houses approve full 5-year term for BoJ Gov Kuroda.
- USD/JPY: (JP) BoJ easing expected to lead to increase in yen carry trades - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU's Ashton holds talks on Iran's Nuclear Program
- (FI) Finland govt to face no-confidence vote
- (IT) Italy Q4 YTD Deficit to GDP: No est v 3.7% prior
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- (CO) Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes
- 06:00 (DE) Germany Feb Factory Orders M/M: +1.1%e v -2.5% prior (revised from -1.9%); Y/Y: -1.5%e v -2.5% prior
- 06:00 (IC) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 3.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Feb Economic Activity Index M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 4.9%e v 6.7% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Mar Total Official Reserves: No est v 107.1B prior
- 08:30 (US) Mar Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +190Ke v +236K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +200Ke v +246K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +10Ke v +14K prior; Two-Month Payroll Net Revision: No est v -15K prior
- 08:30 (US) Unemployment Rate: 7.7%e v 7.7% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 14.3% prior; Change in Household Employment: No est v +170K prior
- 08:30 (US) Mar Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.1% prior; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.5e v 34.5 prior
- 08:30 (US) Feb Trade Balance: -$44.6Be v -$44.4B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Net Change in Employment: +6.5Ke v +50.7K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.0%e v 7.0% prior
; Full Time Employment Change: No est v +33.6K prior; Part Time Employment Change: No est v +17.2K prior; Participation Rate: No est v 66.7% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Int'l Merchandise Trade: +C$100Me v -C$240M prior
- 10:00 (CA) Canada Mar Ivey Purchasing Managers Index Seasonally Adj: 52.5e v 51.1 prior; PMI Unadj: No est v 51.6 prior
- 15:00 (US) Feb Consumer Credit: $15.0Be v $16.2B prior
- 20:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.8% prior



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