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TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Specter of a Spring Swoon Haunts Markets Post Jobs Report

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Specter of a Spring Swoon Haunts Markets Post Jobs Report
Fri, 05 Apr 2013 11:00 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (DE) Germany Feb Factory Orders M/M: 2.3% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -1.5%e
- (CL) Chile Feb Economic Activity Index M/M: -0.1% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 4.8%e
- (PL) Poland Mar Total Official Reserves: 108.9B v 107.1B prior
- (US) Mar Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +88K v +190Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +95K v +200Ke; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: -3K v +10Ke
- (US) Unemployment Rate: 7.6% v 7.7%e; Underemployment Rate: 13.8% v 14.3% prior; Change in Household Employment: -206K v +170K prior
- (US) Mar Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 2.1%e prior; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.6 v 34.5e
- (US) Feb Trade Balance: -$43.0B v -$44.6Be
- (CA) Canada Mar Net Change in Employment: -54.5K v +6.5Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.2% v 7.0%e; Full Time Employment Change: -54.0K v +33.6K prior; Part Time Employment Change: -0.4K v +17.2K prior; Participation Rate: 66.6% v 66.7%e
- (CA) Canada Feb Int'l Merchandise Trade: -C$1.0B v +C$0.1Be
- (CA) Canada Mar Ivey Purchasing Managers Index Seasonally Adj: 61.6 v 52.5e; PMI Unadj: 64.4 v 51.6 prior

- In Asia, a solid Nikkei rally was cut off by bird flu fears, while Hong Kong fell 3%. In Europe, indices are down sharply , although it is notable that most of the declines came after a sharp drop in the DAX just before 06:00ET. As of writing, the DJIA is down 0.82%, the S&P500 is down 0.91% and the Nasdaq is off 1.15%.

- The March jobs report is very poor by any analysis. Non-farm payrolls added only 88K, its worst showing since last July. By far the ugliest component of the report was retail jobs, which plunged by 24K. Analysts say the latter component is due to the impact of the payroll tax increase. The unemployment rate fell to lows last seen in December 2008, although most of the decline was due to labor force shrinkage. The labor force participation rate fell to 63.3%, the lowest level since 1979. After the data, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said markets should not expect to hear much about QE tapering for a while.

- EUR/USD held steady at around 1.2930 overnight after going back above the 200-day moving average at 1.288- yesterday afternoon. The pair made another big move upward on the jobs data, jabbing above the 1.3000 handle. The loonie was broadly weaker after Canadian March employment report saw a decline of -54.4K, its second decline for the year. USD/CAD tested 1.0219 after the data.

- Hewlett-Packard chairman Ray Lane is stepping down, along with two other board members. Analysts have blamed him for rubber stamping HP's flawed acquisition of Autonomy in 2011, and he was only narrowly reelected to the board in March. Lane will be temporarily replaced by activist investor Ralph Whitworth, leading some to speculate that a breakup of the company has become a real possibility.

- Consumer name Hanesbrands initiated a quarterly dividend and offered a preliminary look at its Q1 results. The firm warned that sales were hampered by a sluggish retail environment as a result of delayed income tax returns and inclement weather. Earnings were well above expectations thanks to cost-cutting initiatives. Shares of HBI are up 2.7%.

- F5 Networks is down 20% this morning after the firm's preliminary Q2 numbers widely missed expectations. The company said that its revenue shortfall was primarily from a slowdown in North America, while sales in Japan and Asia-Pacific were essentially in line.

- During yesterday's session, shares of Exide Technologies lost about half their value after an industry publication reported the company hired new advisors after a standard refinancing effort had failed. This morning shares are up about 20% after the firm issued a press release confirming that they had retained Lazard to advise the company on financing alternatives.

- A nice move higher in natural gas futures is helping a broad spectrum of energy names gain ground this morning. After big declines earlier this week, the front-month Henry Hub contract has popped back above the $4.00 handle. Yesterday's EIA weekly stockpiles data showed inventory below the five-year average level for the first time in 19 months, a major shift for a market that has been burdened with oversupply for years. Goldman Sachs said demand is growing at the same time that US production is holding steady and forecasted prices of around $4.50 in the second half of 2013.

***Looking Ahead***
- (FI) Finland govt to face no-confidence vote
- (MX) Mexico Banamex Survey of Economists
- (CO) Colombia Monetary Policy Minutes
- 15:00 (US) Feb Consumer Credit: $15.0Be v $16.2B prior
- 20:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 1.8% prior

 

 

 

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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