TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Both European core and peripheral yields continue to move lower; JPY at multi-year lows after BOJ gives details on bond
Monday, April 08, 2013
TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Both European core and peripheral yields continue to move lower; JPY at multi-year lows after BOJ gives details on bond buying scheme
***Notes/Observations*** - (CN) Three more cases in China bring H7N9 cases to 21, with 6 dead - China press - (CN) PBoC Beijing Branch increases down payment for second home purchase and commercial bank mortgages - Shanghai Composite declined to fresh 2013 lows; Nikkei225 hits highest level since Aug 2008 - (JP) BOJ will begin its new monetary easing effort with the purchase of ¥1.2T in JGB with maturities over 5 years in the next few days - Japan Current Account registers first time in 4 months but down 47% y/y; Trade balance remains in deficit. - Portugal looks for spending cut alternatives after Constitutional court ruled out some austerity measures; Portugal 10-year bond recovers after opening up 25bps to test 6.50% </ >- France, Austria, Belgium and Netherland 10-year Govt bond hit fresh record lows - Germany 6-month BuBill yild moves back into negative territory and at 3-month low - US Corporate earnings season official gets underway after market close today
***Economic Data*** - (JP) Japan Mar Bankruptcies Y/Y: -20.0% v -11.8% prior - (JP) Japan Mar Eco Watchers Current Survey: 57.3B v 53.2 prior (5th straight monthly rise); Outlook Survey: 57.5 v 57.7 prior, first MoM decline in 5 months - (AU) Australia Mar Foreign Reserves: A$48.7B v A$43.7B prior - (ZA) South Africa Mar Gross Reserves: $50.0B v $50.4B prior; Net Reserves: $46.1B v $47.2B prior - (FI) Finland Feb Preliminary Trade Balance: -€85M v -€437.0M prior - (HU) Hungary Feb Preliminary Trade Balance: €672.6M v 716.8Me - (CZ) Czech Feb Industrial Output Y/Y: -5.7% v -5.0%e; Construction Output Y/Y: % v -9.3% prior - (CZ) Czech Feb Trade Balance (CZK): 28.7B v 28.8Be - (DK) Denmark Feb Industrial Production M/M: -4.8% v -1.6%e - (TR) Turkey Feb Industrial Production WDA M/M: 1.5% v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: 4.4% v 2.4%e - (EU) ECB: €19.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €20.0M prior; €134.9B parked in deposit facility vs. €135.5B prior - (CH) Swiss Q4 Industrial Production Y/Y: 1.7% v 2.5% prior - (SE) Sweden Mar Budget Balance (SEK): 5.8B v 15.6B prior - (TW) Taiwan Mar Total Trade Balance: $3.2B v $2.1Be; Total Exports Y/Y: 3.3% v 2.2%e; Total Imports Y/Y: 0.2% v 4.2%e - (NO) Norway Feb Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.3% v 6.2%e - (NO) Norway Feb Industrial Production M/M: -1.9% v -4.9% prior; Y/Y: -10.7 v -8.1% prior - (NO) Norway Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.9% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 4.2% v 2.5% prior - (EU) Euro Zone Apr Sentix Investor Confidence: -17.3 v -12.8e - (HK) Hong Kong Mar Foreign Currency Reserves: $303.8B v $304.8B prior - (IT) Bank of Italy Mar Balance-Sheet: ECB funding to Italian banks at €268.2B vs. €281.0B prior - (SG) Singapore Mar Reserves: $258.2B v $259.1B prior
Fixed Income: - (DE) Germany sold €3.49B in 6-month BuBills; Avg Yield: -0.0002% (three-month low) v +0.0103% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.9 x v 2.0x prior - (NO) Norway sold NOK5B in 12-month bills; Yield: 1.66%
***Equities*** </ >FTSE 100 +0.30% at 6,270, DAX +0.40% at 7,685, CAC-40 +0.70% at 3,689, IBEX-35 +0.30% at 7,822, FTSE MIB +0.50% at 15,327, SMI +0.0.60% at 7,685, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,549
- The major European equity markets opened the session higher, following the losses seen on Friday's session. Portugal's PSI 20 has lagged following the recent ruling by the country's constitutional court on austerity measures. European banks are trading mixed. Outperformerss include Santander and Intesa. In Greece, shares of Eurobank and National Bank have declined by over 25% on the planned delay to their merger transaction. Resource related shares are mostly higher, in line with the gains being seen for commodity prices. European airline companies are trading mixed, following the sharp declines seen on Friday's session on bird flu concerns. In terms of focal points for the markets, US Fed Chairman Bernanke is due to speak later today. Also, Alcoa is due to report its quarterly earnings following the US equity close.
- UK movers [ENRC +5.5% (broker commentary), Premier Oil +4.5% (oil find), Aggreko +3% (broker commentary), Polymetal +2.5% (FY profits rose y/y), WPP +2% (broker commentary); Mecom Group -30% (profit warning)] - Germany movers [United Internet +4.5% (broker commentary), Bilfinger Berger +1.5% (long-term sales guidance), Bayer +0.50% (FDA issues priority review for RIOCIGUAT); SAP -0.50% (broker commentary), BMW and Daimler trade lower amid concerns about weaker yen vs euro] - Italy movers [Maire Tecnimont +12% (capital raise); Pirelli -3.5% (to delay business plan)] - Switzerland movers [Novartis +1.5% (broker commentary); Barry Callebaut -1% (H1 results below ests)]
Speakers: </ >- German Fin Min Schaeuble commented that Portugal must take new measures to return to sustainable public finances to satisfy Constitutional Court ruling. He noted that Portugal had made great progress in the past and on its way to regain access to markets - Italy Bersani again rejected any pact with PDL's Berlusconi but added he would not be an obstacle to forming a new govt - Ireland's PM Kenny ruled out any cabinet reshuffles for 2013 - Cyprus Fin Min Georgiades reiterates there is no Plan B for the country - German Chancellor Merkel reiterated the view that the Cyprus bailout was not the standard for EMU - Austria State Sec for Finance Schieder: Might loosen bank secrecy rules for tax offenders - Hungary Central Bank Vice Gov Kiraly submitted resignation; effective April 22nd as she was concerned about credibility and transparency. Over the weekend she commented that central bank panel was rushed into vote on stimulus and that she abstained from voting on the bank's economic stimulus plan this week because she was only given 35 minutes to read the 40-page document before it was debated and put to a vote in the bank's Monetary Council. - Turkey Econ Min Caglayan: Central bank should cut interest rates to spur economic growth - Russia Econ Min Belousov stated that Govt was prepared to cut its 2013 GDP growth forecast from 3.6% as GDP was seen below 3.0% under a conservative scenario. Govt move would put additional pressure on the Bank of Russia to ease monetary policy in order to prop up economic growth through higher lending activity He saw 2013 consumer inflation likely to come in at 5.8%-6.0% in Q3 vs. target between 5% and 6% - S&P report on the Netherlands banking sector noted that it was held back by housing and economy. It expected that the continued pressure on the Dutch housing market and private sector will delay a more convincing economic recovery--and thus weigh on Dutch banks' prospective performance--until 2014. - Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga noted that the market's reaction towards the equity market gain and JPY currency fall showed that markets valued BoJ action - Japan Business Lobby Chief welcomed the USD/JPY pair above ¥98 handle for the country's manufacturers - Singapore Trade Min stated that CPI rose by 4.2% in Jan and Feb period and saw 2013 range between 3.5-4.5%. He noted benign imported inflation in 2013 and that MAS to review inflation forecast at next meeting - North Korea to pull out all of its workers from Gaesong Industrial Zone, as operations have been temporarily suspended and was considering a full shutdown of the facility. - South Korea stated that it saw no signs of any imminent nuclear test by North Korea - China Foreign Min: Did not seek a war on Korean peninsula - Russia President Putin stated that he was concerned about escalation on Korean Peninsula. He also hoped that bailout method used in Cyprus would not be used again - US Ambassador Locke: China and US are both very concerned on North Korea actions
Currencies: </ >- The JPY currency continue to weaken with -USD/JPY touching the 99 handle for its highest level since May 2009 while EUR/JPY cross approached 128.70, highest since Jan 2010. BoJ announced the details of its new bond buying scheme with purchases of ¥ 1.0T in 5-10 yr JGBs and ¥200B in bonds with maturities exceeding 10 years. The carry-trade characteristics was returning for the yen as Japanese targeted overseas bonds on the hunt for yield - The EUR/USD hovered around the 1.30 handle in the session (top end of recent ranges despite weaker US employment data) but faced headwinds as some uncertainty in the air still. Portugal will cut spending to meet targets after a court ruling overturned key austerity measures. Concerns about weak growth might now start to dominate, but FX implications still unclear - France, Austria, Belgium and Netherland 10-year Govt bond hit fresh record lows in early European trade. Italy 10-year gov't yield approached the 4.25% level which would mark pre-election levels. Spain 2-year Govt yield dipped below the 2.0% level, first time since Oct 2010. Portugal 10-year Govt yield reversed earlier widening; last at 6.23% and lower by several basis points in session (**Note it opened today up 25bps to test 6.50%)
Political/In the Papers: - (CY) Cyprus confirms adopts extension of capital controls for 7 additional days; Latest decree on currency controls will allow bank transfers of up to €10K per month for businesses and €2K for individuals; Prior controls including the €300 daily limit on cash withdrawals, and a approval process for business payments greater than €25K per day remain in effect. - (DK) Denmark Central Bank Gov Rhode: Danish kroner not undervalued against the euro; EUR/USD rate balanced - (EU) Finland Parliament: Sees Cyprus bailout vote before the Apr 12th informal meeting of EU Fin Mins - financial press - (EU) EU Economic Commissioner Rehn: bank deposits above €100K could be subject to haircuts in future bank bailouts, but deposits below €100K will always be safe - (EU) IFO/ISTAT/INSEE jointly forecast eurozone Q1 GDP 0.0%, Q2 GDP +0.1% (Q2 trimmed from +0.2% forecast in Jan) -(EU) Fitch lowers ratings on 5 Slovenia banks; affirms ratings for 2 others; outlook Negative - (FR) France President Hollande planning measures to "clean up French politics"; might be announced this week - (GR) Greece Fin Min official: Reaffirms 2013 GDP forecast at -4.5% - financial press; Tourism outlook better than forecasts. - (GR) Greece Central Bank: Bank recap to be completed by April - financial press; Recapitalization of four systemic banks on track. - (IT) Italy to pay €40B state debt to private companies; likely start Monday - financial press - (IT) Italy Econ Min Grilli reportedly to meet with EU's Rehn in Brussels on Monday (4/8) to discuss Italy's new decree on state payments made to companies - (PT) Portugal Constitutional Court rules that some elements of 2013 budget austerity are not constitutional - financial press; Rejects suspension of holiday subsidy for employees (workers) (article 29); rejects cuts to public employee pensioner holiday bonuses payments (article 77); rejects taxes on unemployment subsidies - (PT) Portugal PM Coelho: Must get ready for a new round of public spending cuts; Focus will be on health, education and social security to keep €78B bailout program on track - TV address - (CN) PBoC: Beijing Branch increases down payment for second home purchase and commercial bank mortgages to 70% - financial press - (CN) China PBoC: Reiterates to maintain prudent monetary and proactive fiscal policy - (JP) BoJ: Reiterates to purchase ¥1T of JGBs with maturities of 5-10 years under enhanced easing commitment; To purchase ¥200B of JGBs with maturities over 10 years under new commitment; Banks offered to sell ¥2.05T in JGBs maturing in 5-10 years to the BoJ; Banks offered to sell ¥633.7B in JGBs of more than 10 years. The bank offers were above the amounts targeted by the BoJ.
***Looking Ahead*** ***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent) - (HU) Hungary Central Bank Gov Matolcsy to meet with CEOs of the eight largest banks - (RU) Russia President Putin to Visit Netherlands for Talks with PM Rutte - 06:00 (DE) Germany Feb Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -1.3% prior - 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Industrial Sales M/M: No est v 3.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v -4.7% prior - 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell Bills and Bonds - 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell T-Bills - 06:00 (NO) Norway to sell Bills - 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell Fixed Rate 2018 Bonds - 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing - 07:00 (CL) Chile Mar CPI M/M: 0.3 v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 1.3% prior; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: 0.3%e v 0.1% prior - 07:00 (IE)) Ireland Mar Consumer Confidence: No est v 59.4 prior - 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey - 07:30 (CL) Chile Mar Trade Balance: $500Me v $68.0M prior; Total Exports: No est v $5.9B prior; Total Imports: No est v $5.9B prior - 07:30 (CL) Chile Mar Copper Exports: No est v $3.2B prior - 08:30 (US) Fed's Pianalto speaks on the Economy in West Palm Beach, - 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €6.0-7.2B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills - 09:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Gross Fixed Investment: +3.6%e v -2.4% prior - 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender - 09:30 (EU6) ECB calls for Bids in 1-Month Refinancing Tender - 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases - 10:00 (HU) Hungary Mar YTD Budget Balance (HUF): No est v -339.5B prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Vehicle Production: No est v 246.2K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 80.2K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 175.3K prior - 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada Q1 Business Outlook: 15.0e v 16.0 prior; Senior Loan Officer: No est v -3.4 prior - 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills - 12:00 (EU) ESM's Regling speaks at Conference in Luxembourg - 19:15 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at Atlanta Fed Conference in Georgia - (US) US President Obama Send 2014 Budget to Congress - 21:30 (CN) China Mar CPI Y/Y: 2.5%e v 3.2% prior
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