Monday April 8, 2013 - 22:42:33 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Tusday 9 April 2013
Global market sentiment: Markets were in a slightly more optimistic mood ahead of the quarterly US company reporting season – perhaps a distraction from the geopolitical risks weighing on sentiment recently. Bellwether Alcoa is first to report in a few hours time. The S&P500 fluctuated in a narrow range and is currently up 0.3%. Commodities rebounded, Brent oil futures up 0.7%, copper up 0.9%, and iron ore up 1.3%.
Interest rates: The US 10yr treasury yield drifted upwards from 1.70% to 1.73%. Fed dove Pianalto said its expanding balance sheet was not without risk, echoing recent comments from some other Fed officials. There was little reaction given Chairman Bernanke speaks in a few hours. Eurozone peripheral bond yields slipped a little, apart from Portugal’s 10yr (+6bp) which reflected the country’s request for a bailout extension. Australia’s 3yr bond yield rose from 2.76% to 2.82, while the 10yr yield rose from 3.21% to 3.26%.
Currencies: The US dollar index ranged sideways. EUR shrugged off a disappointing EZ investor confidence survey to rise from 1.2990 to 1.3038 during the London morning but retraced that during the afternoon. USD/JPY extended the post-BOJ gain from 98.40 to 99.33 – a four-year high. AUD rose from 1.0375 to 1.0424 before consolidating during the London afternoon. NZD similarly rose from 0.8415 to 0.8476 – a six-week high. It’s also worth noting the NZD TWI made a fresh post-float high at 78.13. AUD/NZD extended its decline since mid-March to 1.2285.
No US data to report.
Euroland Sentix investor confidence fell from –10.6 to –17.3 in April, even weaker than Westpac’s low end –16 forecast (there was only one forecast weaker than ours this month - another UK based economist - and in March we were the lowest) and once again way below the consensus forecast of –12.8. The Sentix profile looks just like a year ago when post LTRO optimism started to fade as the European outlook deteriorated further. This time around post OMT optimism is fading under the weight of Italian politics, Cypriot bailout, Slovenian risks, and so on.
German industrial production rose 0.5% in Feb but Jan was revised from flat to a fall of –0.6% and other revisions shaved a further 0.7ppts off growth for an annual pace of contraction of –1.8% yr in Feb from –1.3% yr reported previously for Jan (now –2.6% yr). German IP slumped about 3% in the second half of 2012 and so far in 2013 it has struggled to even hold at that new lower level of activity, despite as 3.4% rise in factory orders since the start of Q4 last year. This does not bode well for a solid bounce out of Q4’s 0.6% GDP contraction, and if Germany doesn’t grow much, then the Eurozone will print its sixth consecutive quarter of recession (Q1 data due mid May).
Portugal to cut public spending further. A court ruling that the planned one month suspension of public sector pay and pensions would be illegal means more spending cuts but taxes won’t be increased, according to PM Pedro Coelho. It does mean that €2bn in bailout funds will not be disbursed as planned and the ECB/EU/IMF troika are scheduling a visit to Lisbon to review the situation, fuelling talk of a second Portuguese bailout (recall the Greek bailout has also been held up again because of failure to lay off enough state workers). Meanwhile Slovenia is increasingly viewed as the next candidate for a bailout as the new government struggles to deal with rising funding costs and a banking system saddled with 20% impaired loans.
Event risk today: The next few hours contain Alcoa’s earnings report and Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech. Then there’s NZ’s main business confidence survey (NZIER) to watch followed by Australia’s version (NAB), and perhaps the highlight - China’s CPI release.
NZD/USD 1 day: In contrast to the AUD, momentum here remains positive, arguing for a push above 0.8476 near term.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: Momentum is positive suggesting further gradual gains towards 0.8500 as long as 0.8160 holds. The global environment is looking less friendly but NZ’s own economy should continue to outperform.
AUD/USD 1 day: 1.0355 below remains vulnerable near term, daily momentum now negative.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: Remains inside an 18-month consolidation triangle defined by 1.0500 above and 0.9900 below. We expect the eventual break to be upwards.
AUD/NZD 1 day: The break below 1.2310 technical support argues for a push lower today towards 1.2260. The complexion of today’s economic data from NZ, AU and China will tell.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The trend decline towards 1.2100 has probably resumed. Near term, Australia’s employment report is key.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening up 2bp at 2.89%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: This downward correction could extend lower to the 2.70%-2.80% area. As long as that area holds though, we expect an eventual rise above 3.20% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 9 April 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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