Tuesday April 9, 2013 - 03:35:10 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 09-Apr-2013 -0333 GMT
The Dow (14613.48, +48.23, +0.33%) closed higher again. Overall bullishness continues targeting 14750-14800 in a couple of weeks. Some profit-taking could be seen in the 14800-15000 region.
After a long time indices are trading higher in Asia-Pac. Shanghai (2233, +0.96%) is a up almost a percent. We can see a short-covering rally towards 2250-60. The Nikkei (13257, +0.49%) is up again, but we would be wary of taking fresh Longs in the Nikkei. Australia is up 1.18% and that is good, for the index there has been coming down for some weeks now.
It is to be seen if the rise in the Shanghai and All Ordinaries (Australia) might rub off on the Nifty (5542.95).
Gold (1574.90) is consolidating a bit after having bounced over the last couple of days. While above 1530, there should be decent chances of seeing a rise towards 1600, maybe higher.
Brent (105.04) bounced back yesterday, as the Range Support at 103 has held on first testing. It now needs to be seen if Brent will rise past 108 or not.
Sharp rise in the Euro (1.3055). Can rise into the long-term Resistance region of 1.31-32. Further rise in Dollar-Yen (99.40) which is now close to 100. The Euro-Yen Cross (129.67) has also risen sharply, but may run into Resistance near current levels. If broken, the next target would be 132.
The Pound (1.5267) has come off on profit-taking from yesterday's high near 1.5363 ahead of the 1.54 Resistance mentioned yesterday. Support in the 1.5190-60 region needs to hold for further rise next week. The Aussie (1.0428) has risen back sharply from the low near 1.0350 seen yesterday. The bounce in Gold seems to have helped the Aussie.
Dollar-Rupee (54.57) had come off yesterday and could test Support in the 54.40-25 region.
The Germany-USA 10-Yr Spread (-0.52%) is slightly lower compared to the -0.49% the day before. It can rise towards -0.45% in the coming days. The Spain 10-Yr (4.75%) has started coming off again and the Spain-Germany 10-Yr (3.51%) is also coming down. This should be good for the Euro.
The US 10-Yr (1.74%) is trading near an important trendline Support, but could be in danger of breaking below given that the 5-Yr and 30-Yr are trading sharply lower. Take a look at
This is worrying and we will have to watch this.
9:30 GMT or 15:00 IST UK Trade Balance
...Expected -8.50 £ (Bln) ...Previous -8.20 £ (Bln)
No major data release yesterday.
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