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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Germany's trade component noted that Europe's largest economy was taking longer than previously expected to recover; UK production data beats expectations

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Germany's trade component noted that Europe's largest economy was taking longer than previously expected to recover; UK production data beats expectations
Tue, 09 Apr 2013 5:45 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China inflation data come in softer than expected (2.1% vs. 2.5%e) and dim chances of tighter PBoC monetary policy for the time being
- Japanese officials begin to express satisfaction in current level of USD/JPY for its economy as the pair approached parity (100)
- German Feb Trade data shows Europe's largest economy was taking longer than previously expected to recover as both imports and exports decline
- UK industrial and Manufacturing data beats expectations but back month revised lower
- Portugal FinMin: confirmed Troika to visit Portugal between bailout reviews after court ruling, but no date set yet
- Fitch affirms China's Foreign Currency IDR at 'A+'; Downgrades Local Currency IDR to 'A+'

- Fed Bernanke: economy still far from desired performance level; banks need to better manage liquidity risks
- Alcoa begin US corporate earnings season with a slight beat on EPS but miss on revenues

***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Mar Unemployment Rate: 3.2% v 3.3%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 3.1% v 3.1%e
- (DE) Germany Feb Current Account: 16.0B v 14.2Be; Trade Balance: 16.8B v 15.0Be; Imports M/M: -3.8% v -0.1%e; Exports M/M: -1.5-0.3%e

- (JP) Japan Mar Preliminary Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -21.6% v -21.5% prior
- (FR) Bank of France Mar Business Sentiment: 93 v 95e
- (FR) France Feb Trade Balance: -6.0B v -5.5Be
- (FR) France Feb Central Govt. Balance: -27.1B v -12.8B prior
- (DK) Denmark Feb Current Account (DKK): 3.5BB v 5.7Be; Trade Balance (ex-shipping): 4.1B v 6.0Be
- (CZ) Czech Mar CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e
- (CZ) Czech Mar Share of Unemployed between 15-64 years old: 8.0% v 8.0%e
- (EU) ECB: 19.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 19.0M prior; 129.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 134.9B prior
- (CH) Swiss Mar CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.5%e
- (CH) Swiss Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.3% v +0.1% prior
- (CH) Swiss Feb Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5%e
- (NL) Netherlands Mar CPI M/M: 1.1% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.9%e
- (NL) Netherlands Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 1.3% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 2.9%e
- (NL) Netherlands Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.7% v 2.0%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -1.3%e; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -4.2% v -0.2% prior
- (IT) Italy Feb Hourly Wages M/M: 0.0% v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.4 v 1.7% prior
- (UK) Feb Industrial Production M/M: 1.0% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -2.2% v -2.8%e
- (UK) Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.8% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -1.4%e
- (UK) Feb Visible Trade Balance: -9.4B v -8.6Be; Total Trade Balance: -3.6B v -2.8Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -4.3B v -3.7Be

- (CY) Cyprus Mar CPI Harmonized Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.8% prior
- (GR) Greece Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: -3.9 v -4.2% prior
- (GR) Greece Mar Consumer Price Index Y/Y: -0.2% v +0.1% prior; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: -0.2% v +0.1% prior

Fixed Income:
- (FI) Finland opened its books for 10-year Euro-denominated bond; guidance seen at 0.0bps (flat) to mid-swaps
- (MX) Mexico to sell 10-year Euro-denominated benchmark bond; guidance seen +135bps over mid-swaps
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold 2.035B vs. 1.5-2.5B Jan. 2033 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield 2.2656% v2.497% prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.3B vs. 1.0B indicated in 26-week bills; Avg Yield 4.25% v 4.25% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x v 1.64x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 119.3B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75% vs. 124.9B
- (EU) ECB allotted in 1-Month Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75% vs. 4.2B prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Months Bills; Avg Yield 4.44% v 4.72% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.04x v 1.51x prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF972.1M in 6-Month Bills; Yield: -0.199% v -0.077% prior
- (UK) DMO sold 3.5B in 1.75% 2022 Gilt; Avg Yield 1.734% v 2.147% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.68x v 2.25x prior; Tail 0.2bps v 0.1bps prior
- (DE) Germany sold 860M in 0.75% 2018 index linked bonds; Avg Yield -1.18% v -0.78% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 1.9x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.50% at 6,306,
DAX +0.30% at 7,688, CAC-40 +0.70% at 3,691, IBEX-35 +0.90% at 7,856, FTSE MIB +1% at 15,414, SMI +0.10% at 7,696, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,561

- Equity markets in Europe are broadly higher, in line with the gains seen in US equity markets. Banks are trading higher, led by gains in shares of Barclays, RBS and Intesa. Resource related companies are broadly higher, as China's monthly inflation data was below analyst expectations. Airlines are trading mostly higher, following upbeat analyst comment.

- UK movers [Ferrexpo +15% (Q1 production +10% y/y), Tesco +1% (speculation that Warren Buffett may raise stake); AZ Electronics -25% (profit warning)]
- Germany movers [Aurubis +5% (CEO comments, copper price rebound), ProsiebenSat +1% (broker commentary); K+S -1% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [EADS -1.5% (share placement)]
- Italy movers [Telecom Italia +3% (renewed merger speculation)]

Speakers:
- German Fin Min Schaeuble held a joint press conference with US Tsy Sec Lew. Schaeuble noted that the Euro region was on a good track and had intensive talks with US today.
He explained to US the complicated structure in Europe during the debt crisis. Europe was on a good path although have a difficult structure of decision making
- US Tsy Sec Lew commented that the US recovery was gathering strength but its creation of jobs not as fast as we like. He added that US had immense stake in a strong Europe. He did did discuss banking union and noted that it was key for ensuring long-term stability of Euro Zone
- China Stats official: CPI might be relatively stable in coming months
- BOE's Fisher commented in the press that he was as optimistic on lending as banks were feeling, though was will go up; Background level of QE needed to support the economy. He did see glimmer of hope in UK economy but noted that there were limits of what monetary policy could do
- Spain Econ Min Guindos: country's budget would target and help economic growth and it would sustain the effort to reduce its deficit. He believed that the EU reached the right deal for Cyprus in the end although the first package was a mistake. Difficult to accept fragmentation of bank market and Euro banking fragmentation risked deposit flight. German budget excesses weakened EU spending limits. There had been shift in EU policy on budget deficits and must be viewed in structural terms.
- Luxembourg Fin Min Frieden commented that the Govt was discussing automatic information exchange on tax and was not scared by Euro Zone rhetoric following Cyprus bailout. The minister was not sure if Luxembourg could escape consequences of financial transaction tax
- Japan PM Abe advisor Hamada commented that current USD/JPY level (approx 100) was positive for Japan's economy and appropriate considering competitiveness. He added that last week's BOJ easing was a move in the right direction. He also noted that Japan did not have to reach 2% inflation target as long as economy improved. There are still many options left if Japan needed to ease further
- Austria Chancellor Faymann stated that she sought to crack down on tax fraud; negotiating with European authorities over bank secrecy code
- Austria Fin Min Fekter stated that bank secrecy was anchored in the country's constitution and she would fight to keep it
- OECD report on Slovenia believed that its 1.0B bank recapitalization might be too low with the real cost could be "significantly" higher. Govt must save viable banks and sell them into private hands and let those that are not viable fail
- Russia Central Bank Gov nominee Nabiullina commented to Parliament that he would outline tasks for the next four years and saw room for maneuver on current interest rates. He added that rate moves must be based on all macro parameters and could not lose sight of economic growth. Low rates alone would not increase economic growth and urged coordination with govt to revive economy
- Russian VP Zhukov: United Russia to back Nabiullina as next central bank gov
- Moody's commented on Spain and that its deficit slippage and revisions weakened the country's credibility and maintained negative outlook on Spain's Baa3 sovereign rating (**Note: lowest level of investment grade). Deficit target remained elusive in 2013 despite progress in fiscal consolidation in 2012. Moody's expected 2013 budget deficit of about 6% of GDP.
- Fitch: If banks in Greece were able to execute capital raising plans this could be credit positive for banks. However, an extension of the end-April deadline for the four largest banks (NBG, Eurobank, Alpha Bank and Piraeus Bank) to complete their recapitalization plans could prolong the correction of the sector's funding imbalances and its recovery.
- EU's Rehn commented that Europe was not faring well today with no room for complacency with challenges ahead. He supported Italy governments plan to liquidate trade debt accumulated by public administration. He saw for phased liquidation of trade debt in Italy without endangering sustainable correction of budget deficit.
- SNB's Jordan noted in late Feb that the exit from the floor in the cross was still far away
- South Africa Central Bank's Cassim commented that the ZAR currency rate was a critical factor in rate decisions. It was too soon to say ZAR strength would ease inflation
- North Korea said to have completed preparations for a missile launch

Currencies:
- Germany's trade component noted that Europe's largest economy was taking longer than previously expected to recover. None the less dealer were expecting EUR/USD to register it's 5th consecutive up day with resistance pegged at 1.3115
- The JPY weakened during Asia to register new trend lows but failed to take out key psychological levels. Japanese exporters were said to have reappeared near the 100 level in USD/JPY and 130 in the EUR/JPY cross. Both level would also correspond with option barriers. There was some chatter that perhaps the JPY weakening was becoming a bit too rapid. Comments from PM Abe advisor Hamada commented that current USD/JPY level was positive for Japan's economy and appropriate considering competitiveness was also a factor in capping any weakness in the yen

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard suggests that Japanese investors have been buying sovereign bonds issued by Spain and Italy
-(GR) Greece resumes talks with troika on Tuesday; Some issues have been solved with a major outstanding issue being overhaul of the civil servants - Greek press
-(GR) Greece Fin Min Stournaras: 50B will be enough to recapitalize the Greece banks
-(IT) Italy 5 star party plans to protest tomorrow in parliament due to lack of committee appointments - press
- (IT) There is renewed speculation that PD's Bersani and PDL's Berlusconi could meet later this week - Italian Press
-(IT) Italy Econ Min Grilli: Expects public debt to rise by 3%/GDP in 2014 due to debt payments to firms
- (PT) S&P: Portugal constitutional court ruling on 2013 budget could be adverse for creditworthiness, but it has no immediate effect on our sovereign ratings
-(PT) Fitch comments on Portugal constitutional court ruling: Rising political, implementation and macroeconomic risks to Portugal's fiscal and economic adjustment are already reflected in the Negative Outlook on the sovereign's 'BB+' rating
-(ES) Spain PM Rajoy: EU Should considering changing the ECB mandate, and granting it enhanced powers similar to BOE and the US Fed
- (JP) Japan PM Abe: Govt continuously monitoring the JGB market; want to maintain trust in bond market by pursuing sustainable fiscal policy. Sharp rises in interest rates would have significant impact on Japan's finances and economy
- (US) US Fed Bernanke: economy still far from desired performance level

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EBA Management Board Meeting
- Greece resumes talks with troika today;
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Trade Balance: No est v -572M prior
- 06:00 (ZA) South Africa Q1 BER Consumer Confidence: No est v -3 prior
- 06:00 (EU) ESM to sell 2B in 3-month bills; Avg Yield % v -0.003% prior; Bid-to-cover: x v 2.5x prior
- 06:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2015 and 2022 bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB to drain 205.5B in 7-Day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases (SMP)
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Mar FGV Inflation IGP-DI: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior
- 07:30 (US) Mar NFIB Small Business Optimism: 90.3e v 90.8 prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:15 (CA) Canada Mar Housing Starts: 175.0Ke v 178.0K prior (revised from 180.7K)
- 08:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel visits Vocational Trainees at Company in Stuttgart
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Building Permits M/M: 3.0%e v 1.7% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Final Trade Balance: No est v $46M prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Consumer Prices M/M: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 4.2% v 3.6% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:30 (US) Fed's Lacker speaks in Richmond
- 09:45 (EU) EU's Barroso with Slovenia PM in Brussels
- 10:00 (US) Feb Wholesale Inventories: M/M: 0.5%e v 1.2% prior; Wholesale Sales: +1.5%e v -0.8% prior
- 10:00 (US) Feb JOLTs Job Openings: 3.730Me v 3.693M prior
- 10:00 (BR) Brazil Feb CNI Capacity Utilization: 83.7%e v 84.0% prior
- 10:00 (UK) Mar NIESR GDP Estimate: No est v -0.1% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves
- 10:30 (FI) Finland FSA Director General Tuominen speaks
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (DE) ECB member Asumussen
- 12:00 (US) DOE April Short-Term Crude Outlook
- 13:00 (US) Fed's Lockhart to give Welcome at Stone Mountain, Georgia
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Year Notes
- 13:15 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota moderates panel in GA
- 15:00 (UK) BOE member Haldane in Atlanta
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 22:00 (CN) China Mar Trade Balance $15.2Be v $15.3B prior; Exports Y/Y: -11.7%e v 21.8% prior; Imports Y/Y: +6.0%e v -15.2% prior

 

 

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