Tuesday April 9, 2013 - 20:19:10 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Wednesday 10 April 2013
Global market sentiment: Optimism reigned for a second day, helped by earlier data from China and the Fed Chairman’s speech. With little fresh news last night to alter the course, markets ran with Bernanke’s speech which did not indicate any early tapering of QE, as well as China’s lower inflation print. The S&P500 is currently up 0.7% having fractionally made a fresh five-year high. Commodities are higher, Brent oil +1.7%, copper 2.1%, gold +0.9%, and iron ore +1.1%.
Interest rates: The US 10yr treasury yield is little changed at 1.75% after fluctuating between 1.72% and 1.76%. A 3yr auction was weak, with a bid-cover ratio of 3.2 (vs 3.6 12-mth average) and lower offshore participation than usual. Eurozone peripheral yields were again stable, despite rumblings on Slovenia (OECD warned it is facing a severe banking crisis) and Greece (Der Spiegel speculated a Cyprus-type bail-in could occur). Australia’s 3yr bond yield bounced off 2.77% to 2.82%, while the 10yr yield rose from 3.23% to 3.29%.
Currencies: The US dollar index fell around 0.6%. EUR rose from 1.3007 to 1.3103. USD/JPY consolidated between 98.59 and 99.35. AUD and NZD outperformed, the former pushing to a 2 ½ month high of 1.0510 and the latter making a 19-month high of 0.8537 (with its trade weighted index making a fresh record high). AUD/NZD bounced off a six-week low of 1.2272 to 1.2355, probably on profit-taking and the China data, but then slipped to 1.2300.
US NFIB small business optimism slips from 90.8 to 89.5 in Mar. As in 2012 and 2011, the early year upswing in this index looks to be unsustainable, and from a lower peak than in the previous two years. This index may also be distorted by similar seasonal factor issues that seem to plague many key US data series so we need to be cautious in our interpretation but as the data stand, a driving factor was a fall from 4 to 0 in the intention to hire index, as also occurred in Mar 2012.
US wholesale inventories fell 0.3% in Feb, their first decline since June, as wholesale sales jumped 1.7%.
German exports fell 1.5% in Feb, reversing their 1.3% Jan rise, to be down 0.3% yr, their first decline in annual terms since the recession year of 2009.
UK industrial production bounced 1.0% in Feb after falling 1.3% in Jan. Factory output recovered 0.8% after falling 1.9%. Snow disruption was a factor behind the volatility. The annual pace of contraction of –2.8% yr / –1.4%yr confirms that the industrial sector remains in a recessionary state, despite the temporary return to above 50 readings in the PMI factory index in Dec-Jan. Despite the rise in factory output, exports fell for the second month running, to be down 4.7% compared to the end of 2012, almost entirely due to exports outside the EU (down 8.7%). Exports within Europe were down just 0.5% over the same two months.
UK BRC reported same store sales up 1.9% yr in Mar, down from 2.7% yr in Feb. Even so, Q1 saw the most consistently rapid annual sales pace since the early days of the recovery in late 2009. Also the RICS reported just 1% of surveyors on balance assessing lower house prices in Mar, the second least pessimistic reading since mid 2010.
Event risk today: NZ has electronic spending. Australia has consumer sentiment plus RBA Assistant Governor Kent’s speech in Sydney. China again provides the highlight with March’s trade balance plus money and credit data. Late NY sees the FOMC minutes which will be read for any mention of conditions needed to taper QE.
NZD/USD 1 day: 0.8465 should halt any corrective pullback today, a push above 0.8535 likely.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: Momentum is positive suggesting further gains towards 0.8575 as long as 0.8160 holds. NZ’s economy should continue to perform strongly in a global context.
AUD/USD 1 day: 1.0450 provides support for any near term pullbacks, a push above 1.0510 likely today. Momentum has flip-flopped lately but is now positive.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: Remains inside an 18-month consolidation triangle defined by 1.0500 above and 0.9900 below. We expect the eventual break to be upwards.
AUD/NZD 1 day: The bearish sequence since 14 March now appears complete, heralding an upward correction towards 1.2430. That should then be followed by a fresh sequence lower.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The trend decline towards 1.2100 has probably resumed. Near term, Australia’s employment report is key.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening up 1bp at 2.90%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: This downward correction could extend lower to the 2.70%-2.80% area. As long as that area holds though, we expect an eventual rise above 3.20% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 10 April 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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