Wednesday April 10, 2013 - 03:37:40 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 10-Apr-2013 -0334 GMT
Global equity markets are seeing divergent movements. Further rise in the Dow (14673, +0.41%). On line to meet target of 14750-14800. Some profit-taking may be seen in the 14800-15000 region.
In Europe, the DAX (7637.51, -0.33%) has been coming down for the last few days and the upmove since Jun-2012 has been broken.
Asia-Pac mixed. Shanghai (2226) is flat near yesterday's close, might rise towards 2250 on further short-covering. The Nikkei (13286.15, +0.70%) continues to rise, powered by the Yen's weakness. Australia (4970, -0.20%) is down a little after yesterday's rise.
The Nifty (5495.10) closed below 5500 yesterday. If we do not get a good bounce today, there will be danger of a fall towards 5400. The Nifty is trading near 5529 in Singapore.
Gold (May 1587.20) has bounced over the last few days, byt has Resistance near the current level. This needs to break if Gold is to see further rise to 1625. The chances of a rise are slightly higher.
Brent (106.24) has risen further yesterday. The Range Support at 103 has held well. A further rise to 107.50-108.00 seems possible. The Brent-Nymex Spread (12.18) has lost a lot of ground in the last two months and could move below 12.00 also.
The Dollar Index (82.33) has come off a little from the 82.70-83.00 Resistance region. Important Support is seen at 82.00-81.70 though.
The Euro (1.3085) has risen a little more and looks likely to rise further into the 1.31-32 region. Note, though, that the 1.31-32 region is a strong/ crucial Resistance for the long-term now. The Euro needs to break above this in order to avoid the danger of a fall towards 1.25.
Dollar-Yen (98.97) is consolidating a bit near 99 and could be vulnerable to some profit-taking. The Euro-Yen (129.51) trades a little lower, as there is a bit of Resistance near the current levels. In the long-term, however, there is a big Bull Flag on the charts that could take the Cross higher still.
The Pound (1.5335) has moved up again as it has stayed well above 1.52 yesterday. But, it has Resistance near 1.54 which might not break so easily. The Aussie (1.0511) has powered up from 1.03 over the last three days and can see 1.0550 on the upside.
Dollar-Rupee (54.57) has closed flat after dipping to 54.40 yesterday. It can rise towards 54.70, but needs to remain below that for chances of Rupee strength to remain valid.
The US 10-Yr (1.75%) has not fallen further. That is a bit of a consolation. But, it could be in danger of a fall unless a strong bounce is seen soon. The German-US 10-Yr Spread (-0.49%) is looking alright, with chances of rising towards -0.45%. The German-US 2-Yr Spread (-0.20%) has also risen in the last few days and could move up further after some consolidation. That may be good for the Euro.
4:30 GMT or 10:00 IST IN Trade bal
...Previous -14.92 $ Bln
UK Trade Balance
...Actual -9.4 £ (Bln) ...Previous -8.17 £ (Bln)
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