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Wednesday April 10, 2013 - 10:27:16 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Equity markets drift higher in quiet session EU Market Update: Equity markets drift higher in quiet session
Wed, 10 Apr 2013 5:41 AM EST

- China post unexpected trade deficit for March on surge in imports; China noticed divergence between HK and China data, due to reporting issue. Dealers noted that embedded in the 10% overall increase in China's exports that there was a 93% increase in exports to HK
- India registers its first annual decline passenger car sales in 10 years
- JGB yield climbed higher in session with 2-year yield at 0.13%, higher by 2bps, highest since Jan 2012 and 5-year yield at 0.305%, higher by 11bps; highest since April 2012
- Mixed EUR Industrial production data out of France, Spain and Italy in session (France beat with others were softer)
- Italy bill auction results seen as solid with lower yields despite mix bid-to-cover ratios

***Economic Data***
- (IN) India Mar Local Car Sales: 180.7K v 158.5K prior
- (FI) Finland Feb Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v +1.5%e; Y/Y: -6.0% v -1.5%e
- (FR) France Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.7% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.5% v -3.9%e
- (FR) France Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.8% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -1.9% v -2.8%e

- (DK) Denmark Mar CPI M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.2%e
- (DK) Denmark Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.7% v 0.8%e
- (ES) Spain Feb Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -6.5% v -4.9%e; Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -8.5% v -3.6% prior
- (EU) ECB: 588.0M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 19.0M prior; 136.3B parked in deposit facility vs. 129.5B prior
- (SE) Sweden Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.5% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -1.9%e
- (SE) Sweden Feb Industrial Orders M/M: 3.5% v 0.9%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v -5.4% prior
- (IT) Italy Feb Industrial Production M/M: -0.8% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -7.6% v -6.4%e; Industrial Production wda Y/Y: -3.8% v -4.0%e
- (NO) Norway Mar CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.3%e
- (NO) Norway Mar CPI Underlying M/M: 0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 1.1%e
- (NO) Norway Mar Producer Prices incl.Oil M/M: 0.9% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -3.4% v -2.8% prior
- (CN) China Feb fx net purchase: CNY295.4B v CNY683.7B m/m

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) opened books to sell 10-year and 20-year benchmark bonds
- (TR) Turkey sold $1.5B in 2043 bonds; Yield: 4.95% (record low); bid-to-cover over 3x
- (MX) Mexico sold 1.6B in 2.75% 2023 bonds
- (SE) Sweden sold total SEK10.0B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0B in 7-day USD Liquidity tender at fixed 0.64% vs. $1.2B prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 11.0B vs. 11.0B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold 3.0B vs. 3.0B indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.243% v 0.765% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.9x v 2.79x prior
- Sold 8.0B vs. 8.0B indicated in 12-month Bills, Avg Yield 0.922% (lowest since Jan) v 1.280% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.64x v 1.50x prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold total CHF693.9M in 2021 and 2037 bonds
- (DE) Germany sold 4.22B in 0.25% 2015 Schatz; Avg Yield: +0.02% v +0.06% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.2x v 1.7x prior


FTSE 100 +0.70% at 6,357
, DAX +1.2% at 7,730, CAC-40 +1.2% at 3,713, IBEX-35 +2.1% at 8,041, FTSE MIB +1.3% at 15,638, SMI +1% at 7,728, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,567

- European equity markets are broadly higher, led by the Spanish IBEX-35 and Italian FTSE MIB. Europe has tracked the gains seen in Asian and US equity markets. In terms of the banking sector, outperformers include Barclays, Credit Agricole , Santander and SocGen. Resource related firms are trading higher, supported by import data out of China.

- UK movers [Genel Energy +6.5% (oil find), EasyJet +4% (broker commentary), Vedanta Resources +3% (Q4 mined metal production at record high), Halfords +2% (reaffirmed outlook)]
- Germany movers [Gerresheimer +4% (Q1 sales above ests), RWE +2.5% (broker commentary), E.ON +2% (broker commentary), Daimler +2% (AGM comments), Siemens +0.50% (broker commentary), German solar companies are broadly higher on guidance from First Solar]
- France movers [GDF Suez +2% (broker commentary), Thales +1.5% (broker commentary); JC Decaux -2% (broker commentary), France Telecom -1% (broker commentary)]
- Spain movers [Jazztel +3% (Expected to be added to IBEX-35 index)]

- France President Hollande to make statement following today's cabinet meeting

- ECB's Nowotny (Austria): Not certain that Europe would emerge from crisis stronger as he saw a tendency towards renationalization. Europe needed both growth and austerity. On Slovenia he believed that Slovenia's problems were more political rather than economic
- ECB's Noyer (France) commented that France needed budget rigor and should increase economic growth through reforms. Labor reforms were urgently needed. He saw France 2013 GDP growth around 0% (flat) but the country should be able to meet its 3% deficit in 2014. France needed to freeze spending at 2012 levels. On policy he reiterated that ECB would keep interest rates low (accommodative) and that inflation was well anchored (in line with Draghi's monthly press conference comments). Lastly he stated that the central bank would inject as much liquidity as necessary
- Greece Central Bank Gov Provopoulos commented that bank recapitalization and return of deposits would help improve economic conditions; NBG and Eurobank were not likely to meet rivate funding target. He refuted press speculation about Greek bank deposits. He stressed that all Greek bank deposits were completely protected and safeguarded
- Spain PM Rajoy reiterated that banking union would have avoided problems seen in Cyprus
- German Finance Ministry commented that Ireland's return to the markets would be talked about in Dublin at informal Ecofin and was too early for a decision. He added that any Irish maturity extension needed to be voted on by Bundestag
- Germany Econ Min Roesler reiterated its view that indicators see pickup in activity in spring but uncertainties remained high. He expected industrial sector to gradually overcome weakness whits the country's export sector remained positive
- DIW Institute cut itss Germany's 2013 GDP forecast to +0.7% from +0.9% prior and forecasted 2014 GDP growth at +1.6%
- Portugal Fin Min Gaspar: Will seek to mobilize support for market return to debt markets
- Luxembourg PM Juncker stated that he expected the Euro Zone to remain mired in recession. He added that Greece could not bear much more of consolidation process and that the Luxembourg govt was engaged to slow down the pace of consolidation in crisis countries o avoid a social explosion
- Hungary Central Bank: To continues discussion with commercial lenders regarding the funding for growth scheme on April 15th
- China Vice Premier Zhang reiterated pledge to reduce overcapacity
- South Korea Trade Min Bark commented that he saw worrying trend of rising protectionism globally
- Goldman Sachs lowered its 2013 and 2014 gold price forecasts with 2013 Gold forecast cut to $1,545/oz from $1,610/oz while 2014 Gold forecast was reduced to $1,350/oz from $1,490/oz

- Relatively quiet session but price action saw slight losses for the USD against the major European pairs.
- EUR/USD tested the 1.3115 level in the session, which marked the 38% Fibonacci retracement of its 2013 price range.
- JPY currency selling picked up pace after the European open with USD/JPY pair moving back towards trend highs but below the 100 level. The last time it tested parity was back in April 2009> Meanwhile the EUR/JPY crossed pushed above the 130 handle.
- The USD/CNY pair hit a record low at 6.1923 as the he yuan hit the daily 1% upside limit at 6.1923, for the first time this year.

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Lenders(from Troika and EFSF) have called for Ireland and Portugal to receive a 7 year extension for their bailout loans from the EU - financial press; Ireland expected to receive full support for the extension, while Portugal may need to find additional measures to fill a 1.3B gap in its 2013 budget before it can gain full support
- (EU) EU considering imposing losses on short-term interbank deposits when banks fail - financial press
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen: Probability of an EMU break up is clearly lower than before, moderately optimistic about the EMU economy; Seeing more downside risk to EMU recovery in the 2H than was seen 1-2 months ago.
- (EU) ECB's Nowotny: Europe's crisis to be very deep, very long lasting.
- (DE) Investor George Soros suggested that recession is a risk for Germany - London Telegraph
- (GR) Greece press notes Spiegel article that speculated about potential for bank deposit haircuts in Greece
- (GR) Greece talks with troika continue to stall on civil servant layoffs - ekathimerini
- (IT) Official from Berlusconi's PdL Party: new Italy president cannot be hostile to any political party, needs to represent national unity
- (IT) Italy Center Left Gov Official: Bersani meeting with Berlusconi went well but is only a beginning
- (ES) Spain Econ Min De Guindos: Mid term budget plans will be realistic and will use both reforms and budget cuts
- (US) Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC non-voter): Sees reduced Fed bond purchases in H2 in 2013 - financial press
- (US) PIMCO's Bill Gross: Now bullish on 10-year treasury bonds thanks to action by the BoJ; investors need to buy what Japanese institutions are buying

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UK) G-8 Foreign Ministers Meet in London
- (FR) France President Hollande to make statement following today's cabinet meeting

- (PE) Peru Feb Trade Balance: No est v -$468M prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Feb Construction Works Index: No est v 50.7 prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Consumer Price Index M/M: +1.0%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -0.2%e v 0.0% prior
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: +1.1%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior
- (PL) Poland Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leaves the Base Rate unchanged at 3.25%
- 06:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy in Brussels
- 06:30 (EU) EU Commissioner Rehn on EU Imbalances
- 06:30 (AT) OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 5th: No est v -4.0% prior
- 07:30 (US) Fed member Lockhart
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Economist Survey
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Minutes
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 6.6%e v 6.3% prior
- 08:20 (US) Fed's Lockhart to speak on Financial Stability at Conference
- 08:30 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota moderates a Panel in Stone Mountain, GA
- 09:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel
- 09:45 (EU) EU's Barroso
- 10:30 (US) DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory w/e 5th
- 12:00 (US) IMF chief Lagarde at Economics Club in NY
- 12:00 (US) USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
- 13:00 (DE) ECB member Weidmann (Germany) in Dusseldorf
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 14:00 (US) Fed releases Minutes from Mar 19-20 FOMC Meeting
- 14:00 (US) Mar Monthly Budget Statement: -$107.0Be v -$ prior

- 17:00 (US) Fed's Fisher speaks on Economy, Monetary Policy in El Paso TX
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Mar Employment
Change: No est v +71.5K prior; Unemployment Rate: No est v 5.4% prior







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