Wednesday April 10, 2013 - 20:38:42 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Thursday 11 April 2013
Global market sentiment: The bullish sentiment was accentuated last night. Cited catalysts included China’s rise in imports and Japan’s PM reaffirmed its commitment to higher inflation. Curiously, minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting (which were release early) suggested a late 2013 tapering of quantitative easing efforts and should have dampened equity markets. However the reverse was true, the S&P500 embarking on a rally worth 1.3% to a record high. Commodities were less enthused, Brent oil down 0.8%, copper -0.6%, but iron ore +1.1%.
Interest rates: The US 10yr treasury yield rose from 1.75% to 1.80%, boosted by the FOMC minutes. A 10yr auction saw slightly below average demand. Eurozone peripheral yields fell, Spain’s 10yr -8bp, Italy’s -4bp. Australia’s 3yr bond yield rose from 2.78% to 2.85%, while the 10yr yield rose from 3.28% to 3.35%.
Currencies: The US dollar index firmed with the higher US interest rates. EUR fell from an early London peak of 1.3122 to 1.3053. USD/JPY continued its march higher, rising from 99.20 to 99.88 - a fresh four-year high. AUD and NZD were the standouts, probably benefitting from the Chinese import data. AUD extended domestic session gains from 1.0510 to 1.0552 – a three-month high. NZD similarly rose from 0.8530 to 0.8577 – a 20-month high, while the TWI made a fresh post-float high. AUD/NZD remained consolidative between 1.2285 and 1.2325.
US FOMC minutes released five hours early after embargo broken inadvertently. Yet again a wide range of views in the FOMC minutes, with some seeing QE tapering by midyear and done by year end if the economy continues along the expected path. But then Lockhart earlier today in a speech was saying it is premature to consider slowing bond buying. So still no real agreement there, and remember its is the minority that get the headlines - we already know what the majority view is from the statement three weeks earlier! But there seemed to be agreement that the outlook for the economy was little changed from the previous meeting - they just have different views on how policy should respond! This has been the case for some time now but the various camps are getting more vocal about their views in speeches, almost competing it seems in some cases.
No other major data released today in the US or Europe at the time of writing but the US Federal budget numbers for March had been delayed to 8.00am NZ time.
Slovenian bailout concerns intensify. A €100mn euro T-note auction raised just €56mn at higher yields pushing credit default swaps higher to 352bp, but still below the late March peak at 412bp during the Cypriot bailout saga. The government needs to raise about €3bn this year to repay maturing debt (€1bn in June), recapitalise the banks with bad loans worth 20% of GDP, and fund its deficit. Markets are not convinced the new administration has the means to do it alone, so if Slovenia becomes the sixth eurozone bailee, in this case another with banking sector difficulties largely due to bad housing/construction loans, it will be compared with Spain and Ireland’s treatment to judge just how much of a template the Cypriot episode really was for future bailouts.
Event risk today: NZ has manufacturing PMI which has recently attracted market attention. The day’s highlight, though, will be Australia’s employment report, Westpac’s economists expecting 10,000 jobs to be lost, slightly below the -7,500 consensus pick.
NZD/USD 1 day: 0.8450 now provides major support for a push higher. 0.8575 is a key obstacle, which if cleared, points towards the 0.8840 post-float peak.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: Momentum is positive suggesting 0.8575 will eventually break and a move towards 0.8840 will ensue. The currency benefits from NZ’s strong fundamentals plus a resurgence of NZGB inflows.
AUD/USD 1 day: 1.0510 continues to provide support for a push above 1.0550 towards 1.0600.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: As we write it’s attempting to break above a 2-year old consolidation triangle defined by around 1.0510 above and 0.9850 below. Should the break be sustained, a significant rise is in store.
AUD/NZD 1 day: This upward correction which started on 9 April should have another leg to it, taking it above 1.2530. Support today lies at 1.2275.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The trend decline towards 1.2100 has probably resumed. Near term, Australia’s employment report is key.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening up 4bp at 2.92%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: The downward correction which started on 15 Feb could yet extend lower to the 2.70%-2.80% area. As long as that area holds though, we expect an eventual rise above 3.20% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 11 April 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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