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Thursday April 11, 2013 - 10:01:46 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Italy's borrowing costs fall at BTP auction

Thursday, April 11, 2013 5:42:07 AM

 TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Italy's borrowing costs fall at BTP auction

***Notes/Observations***
-S&P: Revise Cyprus outlook to stable from negative
-Moody's: Portugal court decision is a credit negative
-Australia Mar employment data disappoints with Employment Change coming in at -36K vs. -7Ke
-China: Mar M2 Money Supply data come sin above expectations ( 15.7% vs. 14.6%e)
- China new Yuan loans for the month of March totaled CNY1.06T (beat expectations and considerably higher than the CNY620B reported in the prior month)
- The Bank of Korea (BOK) unexpectedly maintained the 7-day Repo Rate at 2.75% (for 6th straight month), despite the political pressure to lower rates; 5-year bond yield jumps 20bps (most since May 2009)
- ECB deposit facility dips below the 100B for first time since Nov 2011 (Sign of banks putting money to work???)
- Greece Jan Unemployment Rate climbs to fresh record of 27.2%
- Italy bond auction seen as decent with borrowing costs improving with better bid-to-cover ratios

***Economic Data*** </
>- (ID) Indonesia Central Bank (BI) leaves Reference Rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected (14th straight pause at record low level)
- (DE) Germany Mar Final Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (DE) Germany Mar Final CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e
- (SE) Sweden Mar PES Unemployment Rate: 4.5% v 4.5%e
- (FR) France Mar Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.8% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 0.9%e; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 125.69 v 125.67e
- (FR) France Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.8% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Mar Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.5%e
- (ES) Spain Feb House transactions Y/Y: 17.3% v 18.9% prior
- (TR) Turkey Feb Current Account: -$5.1B v -$5.0Be
- (EU) ECB: 1.1B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 588.0M prior; 99.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 136.3B prior
- (RU) Russia Mar YTD Budget Level (RUB): -141.1B v -259.5B prior
- (SE) Sweden Mar CPI Headline Rate M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.2%e; CPI Level: 314.65 v 314.23e
- (SE) Sweden Mar CPI Underlying (CPIF)M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.8%e
- (SE) Sweden Mar Average House Prices (SEK): 2.115M v 2.124M prior
- UN Foods and Agricultural Organization (FAO) March Food Price Index: 212 v 210 m/m
- (GR) Greece Jan Unemployment Rate: 27.2% v 26.6%e (record high)
- (ZA) South Africa Feb Gold Production Y/Y: -4.7% v -8.1% prior; Mining Production Y/Y: 7.0% v 7.3% prior

Fixed Income: </
>-(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 5.67B vs.4.5-6.0B in 2016 and 2028 BTP bonds
- Sells 4.0B vs. 3.0-4.0B indicated range in new 2.25% May 2016 BTP; Avg Yield 2.29% v 2.48% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.4x v 1.28x prior
- Sells 1.67B vs. 1.0-2.0B indicated range in 4.75% Sept 2028 BTP; Avg Yield 4.68% v 4.90% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.3x v 1.28x prior
-(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 1.5B vs. 1.0-1.5B in Jun 2017 CCTeu; Avg Yield: 2.74% v 2.55% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.28x v 1.39x prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK1.0B in 0.5% I/L 2017 bond
- (PL) Poland sold total PLN5.02B in 2023 and 2024 bonds
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF 50B vs. HUF50B indicated 12-Months Treasury Bills; Avg Yield 4.16% v 4.55% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.74x v 2.67x prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF12B vs. HUF8B indicated in 2019 Floating Rate Bond: Price: 96.31 v 95.51 prior; bid-to-cover: 2.8x
- (UK) DMO sold 1.6B in 0.125% Inflation-linked 2024 Gilts; Real Yield -1.262% v -0.844% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.86x v 1.97x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities*** </
>Indices: FTSE 100 +0.30% at 6,409, DAX +0.60% at 7,853, CAC-40 +0.60% at 3,766, IBEX-35 +0.10% at 8,143, FTSE MIB +0.60% at 16,025, SMI +0.60% at 7,821, S&P 500 Futures +0.10% at 1,585

- Equity markets in Europe are mostly higher, tracking Wednesday's gains in US markets. Banks have lagged on today's session, following the outperformance seen on Wednesday's session. On Friday's session, US banks JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are due to report their quarterly earnings. Resource related firms are trading mixed, amid the decline in commodity prices.

- UK movers [Ashmore Group +14% (quarterly AUM rose by 9.4%), Man Group +6.5% (Higher capital surplus), Mothercare +6% (Q4 LFL sales above ests)Marks & Spencer +4.5% (Q4 sales above ests), Hays +4% (FY profit guidance seen at top end of ests), WH Smith +4% (H1 profits rose y/y); Evraz -7% (FY profits declined y/y, omitted dividend), Associated British Foods -1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Germany movers [Fraport +1% (rise in March traffic)]
- France movers [France Telecom +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Telecom Italia +2.5%(board meeting on possible merger)]
- Spain movers [Gas Natural -2% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [Roche flat (Q1 sales above ests, reaffirmed forecast)]

Speakers: </
>- (EU) ECB monthly report reiterated economic risks were to the downside but saw a gradually recovery expected n H2. (in line with ECB press conference). It noted that sequester in the US to lower US GDP by 0.5-0.8% in 2013
- France Budget Min Cazeneuve commented that it would cut its structural deficit by 1% to stand at 1% in 2014 with public deficit representing less than 3% of GDP in 2014. French state spending excluding public pensions and debt expenses would be cut by 1.5% in 2014 with public spending on average growing by 0.5% through 2017
- Cyprus Central Bank said to have denied speculation of plans to sell gold reserves valued at $400M noting that it had not discussed nor were discussing such an option
- Ireland Fin Min Noonan commented that country was not actively pursuing credit line and saw no need for any precautionary credit line at this time. He hoped for political decision on extension for its bailout loans although he conceded that it was not possible for any formal decision. He reiterated that Ireland was moving quite well at this time towards exiting bailout program. He added that Portuguese Constitutional issue was complicating aid extension talks
- Poland said to be planning debt sales denominated in USD, EUR, JPY and CHF in H2 of year
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Gov Kuroda commented that it might adjust policy before 2% inflation target is reached if the economy and other indicators were growing rapidly. He remained committed to achieve 2% inflation target in two years; but target was flexible. BOJ would consider factors like employment, asset markets in policy decisions
- Japan Vice Fin Min Yamaguchi reiterated that BOJ monetary policy was aimed at defeating deflation and not to weaken the JPY currency
- BOJ stated that it would respond flexibly to rising market volatility after meeting participants and that it would buy similar amounts of short-term bonds. Some market participants asked if the BoJ could make JGB purchases in smaller installments.
- Indonesia Central Bank commented after its rate decision that rate was consistent with meeting inflation target with inflation likely to ease. He added that it would absorb more liquidity to slow short-term inflation. The central bank also trimmed its GDP growth forecast for 2013 and 2014
- India Central Bank (RBI) Khan stated that he was hopeful of issuing inflation-linked bonds in May which might be pegged to WPI
- International Energy Agency (IEA) Monthly Oil Market Report noted that signs of easing in oil price pressure could be short lived. It trimmed its 2013 Oil demand growth forecast by 25K bpd to 795K bpd. Oil supply growth on the rebound while demand remained subdued but cautioned that crude supply risks were elevated with setbacks in both US and Australia. Mar Global Oil Supply down by 120K bpd to 90.68M bpd, Mar OPEC crude supply down 140K bps to 30.44M bpd, Mar Non-OPEC Production up 30K to 54.01M bpd. It trimmed 2013 Non-OPEC Supply forecast by 20K bps to 54.5M bpd

Currencies:
- USD/JPY pair remained contained below the 100 level with dealers noting very strong two-way corporate flows.
- EUR/USD remained below the 1.3115 level in the session, which marked the 38% Fibonacci retracement of its 2013 price range.
- AUD/USD managed to shake off weaker than expected employment data and remained on firm footing

Political/In the Papers:
-(CY) ECB forecasts Cyprus financing needs for 2013-2016 at 23B; affirms rescue aid necessary at 10B - press
- (CY) Troika indicates that the Cyrpus Govt intends to sell gold from reserves valued at 400M in efforts to finance portions of bailout - press
- (CY) EU official: Cyprus program will be approved at Friday Eurogroup meeting; First tranche of aid for Cyprus could be disbursed in early May
- (CY) S&P revises Cyprus outlook to Stable from Negative; affirms CCC rating
- (EU) European official indicatesd that the European ministers will not make any new decisions at Friday ECOFIN meeting in Dublin; and will not involve 'contentious' debate; Sees discussions on sharing burden of direct recaps
-(EU) IMF's Lagarde: Global economy is no longer looking as dangerous as it was, seeing signs of improvement in financial market conditions
- (GR) EU official: Troika discussion with Greece this week satisfactory but not all issues resolved; No final decision on next Greek aid tranche at Friday's Eurogroup meeting.
- (GR) Greece Govt statistics agency confirms 2012 Govt deficit at 10%/GDP; debt reached 156.9%/GDP
- (PT) Moody's Analyst: Portugal might need to access the bank recapitalization fund for a second time
-(US) White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) confirmed President Obama budget for FY14: Includes $1.8 trillion of additional deficit reduction over 10 years, bringing total deficit reduction achieved to $4.3 trillion.
- (US) Senate Minority leader McConnell (R-KY): Wondering if Obama wants to 'blow up the budget process'; Obama budget is 'not a serious plan'
- (CN) For the week, the PBoC drained a net of CNY17B in liquidity by selling a total of CNY76B in repos vs drain of CNY25B in prior week (7th consecutive weekly drain)

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (UK) G-8 Foreign Ministers Meet in London
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar CPI M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.1% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior
- 06:00 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on Monetary Policy in Hong Kong
- 06:00 (IC) Iceland to sell Bills
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Apr 5th: No est v $527.6B prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Feb Manufacturing Production M/M: 2.1%e v 2.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 3.9% prior
- 08:00 (SE) Sweden PM Reinfeldt in Parliament
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Retail Sales M/M: 1.5%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 5.9% prior; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.7%e v 7.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Fed's Bullard
- 08:30 (US) Mar Import Price Index M/M: -0.5%e v +1.1% prior; Y/Y: -2.0%e v -0.3% prior </
>- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 360Ke v 385K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.067Me v 3.063M prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.2% prior
- 08:30 (US) Net Export Sales
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Industrial Production M/M: 1.0%e v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.9%e v 1.7% prior
- 09:00 (UK) BOE member Tucker in Dublin
- 09:00 (IE) Informal EcoFin meeting in Dublin
- 10:30 (US) Tsy Sec Lew testifies before House committee
- 10:30 (US) EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 30-Year Bonds Reopening
- 14:30 (US) Dept of Commerce hearing on Obama 2014 budget
- 17:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision; Expected to leave Nominal Overnight Rate Target unchanged at 5.00%

 

 

 

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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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