Friday April 12, 2013 - 03:35:18 GMT
Share This Story
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 12-Apr-2013 -0333 GMT
Dow (14865.14, +62.90, +0.42%) moving up steadily. Looks good for a test of 15000 by next week. Some profit-taking could be seen thereafter. Today's US Retail Sales data will be keenly watched. We expect a 1.13% M/M rise. Market expectation is 0%.
Minor profit-taking in the Nikkei (13467.87, -90.28, -0.67%), finally. As mentioned a few days ago, taking fresh Longs is not advisable. As such, the Nikkei could see some more profit-taking. The Shanghai (2214, -0.27%) is also down a little bit. The outlook is totally mixed on the Shanghai and there are equal chances of a rise to 2250 or a fall to 2200.
The Nifty (5594) popped higher yesterday, but needs to close above 5650 (at least) today to generate more confidence. A rise past 5725-50 is needed to reduce the chances of a fall below 5500. We remain long-term bullish. Let's see what the market thinks.
Gold (May 1561.50) trades below 1580, but the Support at 1540-25 remains valid. Unless this breaks, we cannot fully rule out the chances of a bounce towards 1625-30. Of course, a break below 1525 pushes Gold down to 1480 and lower.
Brent (104.35) is trading lower, but has a crucial Support at 103.50. Unless that breaks on the downside today, there could be chances of a Double Bottom which could then target 107-108 next week.
Euro (1.3118) trades higher, but faces very crucial Resistance upto 1.32. A break above 1.32, if seen, can dramatically reduce the chances of a fall towards 1.25. Failure to break above 1.32 can push the Euro down towards 1.25.
Dollar-Yen (99.58) continues to consolidate below 100. As mentioned yesterday, it faces a crucial Fibonacci Resistance near current levels. The Euro-Yen Cross (130.69) has risen since yesterday and might rise further to test crucial Resistance at 132.
The Pound (1.5405) has risen strongly past 1.5385. If it manages to stay above 1.5385 now, it could become more bullish next week. The Pound is moving up well alongwith the UK-US 10-Yr Yield Spread. Take a look at
The Aussie (1.0560) is managing to look strong today, despite the weakness in Gold. It is testing a crucial Resistance at current levels. Should it be able to rise past 1.0560, the Aussie could become quite bullish, targeting 1.0650+. That will be an important development to watch.
The Dollar Index (82.23) has come off from 83.49 so far this month. It is to be seen if Euro rises past 1.32, the Pound moves up to 1.55, Aussie moves up past 1.0560 and Dollar-Yen comes off . If so, the Dollar Index could break below 82.00. Let us see.
Dollar-Rupee was closed yesterday. It had closed at 54.52 on Wednesday. It might open quiet today.
5:30 GMT or 11:00 IST IN Trade bal
...Expected -16.47 $ Bln ...Previous -14.92 $ Bln
4:30 GMT or 10:00 IST IN IIP
...Previous - 2.40 %
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU IND Prodn (MoM)
...Expected 0.30 % ...Previous -0.40 %
10:00 GMT or 15:30 IST EU IND Prodn (YoY)
...Expected -2.50 % ...Previous -2.08 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US PPI ex Food & Energy (MoM)
...Expected 0.20 % ...Previous 0.16 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US PPI ex Food & Energy (YoY)
...Expected 1.70 % ...Previous 1.82 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US Retail Sales
...Expected 1.13 % ...Previous 1.27 %
Australia Labour Force
...Actual -36.10 K ...Previous 74.00 K
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."