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Active week in store. Focus on Japan and USDJPY 100 level
|Active week in store. Focus on Japan and USDJPY 100 level|
15 April 2013 00:00 gmt
CALENDAR- Far East: CN- GDP, JP- Industrial Output Europe: EZ- Trade. North America: US- Empire PMI, TIC Data, NAHB
- HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- GDP, JP- Industrial Output, EZ- Trade, US- Empire PMI, NAHB
- The Japanese stimulus program is now dominating, forex markets have abandoned the flight-to-safety trade and started to use the excess
liquidity being pumped into the system to seek out higher yields. So what we have already seen is a return to carry trades with market participants using cheap JPY to fund purchases of EUR-denominated bonds.
- Asian Central Banks (ACB) reportedly have been at the forefront buying Eurozone debt. When you think about it, if you are not worried about a debt default in a country like Italy, you can receive a EUR-denominated yield of 4.34% vs. 1.30% in German bunds. In earlier times, investors would have had to worry about the old lira exchange rate risk with Italian bonds. The bottom-line is that Japanese monetary ease has had the unintended effect of generating EUR demand.
- This wee sees an active data calendar with monetary policy a key focus of trade. It will see inflation reports from a number of major economies. Most central banks these days now target inflation. We are not expecting any reports that should impact policy in the near term.
- Another highlight for us will be the German ZEW Survey, which is often seen as a leading indicator of the closely followed monthly IFO survey.
||JGB 0.60% +2bp
||Bund 1.26% -4bp
FX Trade Talk: What's moving markets-- Commentary, data. and data charts posted continuously on FOREX FORUM
John M. Bland, an author and a founding partner of Global-View.com, has been a corporate FX consultant for a major N.Y. bank, a forex trader for a major N.Y. institution, and an FX analyst for a blue chip Fed watching service.. John has an MBA in International Finance and an A.B. in Economics from the University of California at Berkeley.
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John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.
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