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Monday April 15, 2013 - 10:29:54 GMT
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| | Email EU Market Update: Concerns over the global growth front weighs upon commodities EU Market Update: Concerns over the global growth front weighs upon commodities
Mon, 15 Apr 2013 5:41 AM EST

- China GDP and industrial production undershoot forecasts as equities and commodities slump; IP data lowest since May 2009; Q1 GDP 7.7% v 8.0%e
- BOJ raises all 9 regions assessment (first across-the-board upgrade since July 2012)
- EU/IMF/ECB Troika confirms staff-level agreement with Greek authorities; next tranche could come in May
- Commodity markets continued to come under very heavy selling pressure with long liquidation continuing; gold slumps over 4% while silver plunges 8%

***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore Feb Retail Sales M/M: +3.6% v -1.2%e; Y/Y: -2.7% v -3.5%e; Ex Auto Y/Y: 10.0%e v 4.0%e
- (PH) Philippines Feb Overseas Workers Remittances: $1.7B v $1.7B prior; Y/Y: 6.0% v 7.4%e
- (FI) Finland Mar CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.5%e
- (JP) Japan Mar Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -21.5% v -21.6% prior
- (IN) India Mar Monthly Wholesale Prices YY: 6.0% v 6.3%e
- (CZ) Czech Feb Export Price Index Y/Y: +0.8% v -0.5% prior; Import Price Index Y/Y: -0.5% v -1.4% prior
- (CZ) Czech Mar PPI (Industrial) M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%e
- (DK) Denmark Mar Wholesale Prices M/M: -0.6% v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.4% v +1.1% prior
- (FI) Finland Feb Current Account: -160M v -430M prior
- (TR) Turkey Jan Unemployment Rate: 10.6% v 10.9%e
- (EU) ECB: 575M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 807M prior; 119.9B parked in deposit facility vs. 108.9B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Feb Trade Balance: 3.8B v 3.8B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: -4.8% v -0.5% prior
- (CZ) Czech Feb Current Account: (CZK): 27.7B v 5.2Be
- (NO) Norway Mar Trade Balance (NOK): 37.7B v 33.7B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Trade Balance seasonally adj: 12.0B v 9.7Be; Trade Balance unadj: 10.4B v 5.0Be

Fixed Income:
(IT) Italy BTP Italia 2017 retail bond issue order book said to top 2.9B


FTSE 100 -1% at 6,323,
DAX -0.70% at 7,694, CAC-40 -0.80% at 3,699, IBEX-35 -0.80% at 7,972, FTSE MIB -0.90% at 15,640, SMI -0.80% at 7,699, S&P 500 Futures 0.40% at 1,575

- European equity markets are broadly lower, amid the release of weaker than expected Chinese data (Q1 GDP and March industrial production) and sharp declines in gold and silver prices. The miner heavy FTSE 100 has led the declines in Europe, as shares of gold and silver miner Fresnillo have declined by over 8%. European banks are broadly lower led by Credit Agricole and SocGen. During the US morning, Citigroup is due to give is Q1 earnings. Automakers in Germany have underperformed the overall DAX index, amid concerns about China's March retail sales data.

- UK Movers [Betfair +10% (takeover talks); Ladbrokes -7% (profit warning), Ocado -6.5% (broker commentary), Tullow Oil -4.5% (unfavorable drilling update), Declines in gold and silver prices have led to sharp declines in precious metals companies (Fresnillo -8%), BHP -2.5% (decline in copper prices, China GDP data)]
- Germany movers [Sky Deutschland +2.5% (broker commentary), E.ON +1.5% (broker commentary), Leoni +1% (broker commentary); BMW -1.8% (China retail sales), Continental -1.5% (cautious outlook commentary), Siemens -1.5% (cautious outlook commentary), Henkel -0.80% (cautious Q1 commentary)]
- France movers [Saint-Gobain +1% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Lottomatica 1.5% (contract award)]
- Switzerland movers [Kuehn & Nagel +1% (Q1 profits and sales rose y/y)]

- France Fin Min Moscovici declined to deny report of additional taxes for 2014 budget with focus on spending cuts
and saw approx 6B in added taxes in 2014 mostly related to VAT. Some current tax break scheme also targeted in 2014 but no new taxes for households
- EU/IMF/ECB Troika Statement confirmed that it had reached staff-level agreement with Greek authorities with the country's debt sustainability remaining on track and its next 2.8B disbursement could be agreed upon soon. Troika also noted that Greece economic growth was poised to return in 2014 as its economic outlook was largely unchanged
- EU Commission commented that disbursement of next aid tranche for Greece could be agreed upon soon with Eurogroup and IMF Board to consider such approval in May
- IMF's Thomsen: Greece has come long way
- Greece Fin Min Stournaras said that the country had no fiscal gap at this time and sealed an agreement on public-sector layoffs. 2012 Primary Deficit to GDP at -1.0% vs. -1.5% target; General Govt Deficit to GDP at -5.6% vs. -6.6% target. He noted that there would be no loan tranches until all commitment were made as Troika was insisting on public-sector layoffs
- Ireland's Finance Minister Noonan suggested that the country's loan extension could be viewed positively by Moody's
- Sweden Government presented its 2013 Spring Budget forecasts which had a mix outlook on GDP but raised its unemployment rate across the broad through 2015. Raises 2013 GDP to +1.2% vs +1.1% prev in Dec. Cut 2014 GDP growth to +2.2% vs +3.0% prev in Dec. It maintained 2015 GDP at 3.6%
- Sweden Fin Min Borg stated that Sweden probably needed expansive budget in 2014, He noted that the country had room to increase public debt if necessary but cutting debt was not main goal when unemployment was high
- Poland Central Bank member Chonja-Duch (dove) commented that March CPI might move below the 1.0% level but needed to see a sustain CPI fall for more rate cuts come. Poland was waiting for clear trends to emerge as both Polish and Global data were not clear on growth outlook. She hoped the domestic economy would accelerate in H2
- German DIW Economist: Minimum wage proposal is a job killer
- Report circulated that German Chancellor Merkel would retire as Chancellor in 2015 saying behind closed doors that 10 years is maximum a Chancellor could tolerate. Merkel said to believe that she would and could not run again in 2017 if she winds the upcoming Sept 22nd Federal elections
- German gov spokesperson Seibert refuted such speculation noting that Merkel would serve a full term if -re-elected
- Poland Fin Min Rostowski: Cannot imagine nationalizing pension funds as the govt was not planning to eliminate privately managed pension funds. He noted that proposals being discussed include diverting contributions from private managed funds to State funds over 10 years
- Moody's: Cyprus bailout leaves solvency issues unaddressed
- Hungary Econ Ministry to present Euro convergence report on Monday, April 15th. The report likely to have an outlook on GDP growth and budget balance. Report could include measures that the Cabinet would need to take to meet budget targets and exit the Excessive Defixit Procedure (EDP)
- Russia Foreign Min Lavrov: Obama administration is seeking to improve ties with Russia
- Hungary Central Bank nominee Gerhardt commented that it would take at least half of a year for markets to gain trust in policies but rate cuts enacted since Aug are now accepted by the markets. He cautioned that further central bank steps needed to be cautious
- Equilibrium rate is good for both inflation and growth (**Reminder: Hungary PM Orban confirmed MPC member Ferenc Gerhardt as replacement in Central Bank as Vice Gov; effective April 22 after Kiraly resigned last week
- Japan Vice Fin Min Obuchi had no comment on Fx levels and he reiterates that its monetary policy was aimed at beating deflation
- Iran said to want oil above $100/barrel (**Note: In July, Iran also said that $100/bbl for oil was "equitable")

- European traders came to their desks under a heighten risk aversion sentiment and prepared for a more defensive tone after China monthly data included a softer than expected GDP release. However, the FX price action took on a steadier footing in the session
while metals found formidable selling pressures from the recent spat of global disappointing data.
- The USD/JPY moved off its Asian lows of 97.55 to move above the 98 handle. Dealers noted that the pair was supported by bargain hunting given the retracement from the test towards parity.
- Commodity markets continued to come under very heavy selling pressure. NYMEX crude moved towards $88/barrel while gold, silver and copper posted sharp losses with liquidations of prior longs continuing. Spot gold was off over $70/oz at one point to test below $1,404/oz while silve slumped over 8% to test 23.60/oz

Political/In the Papers:
- Weaker than expected China GDP: China Q1 Real GDP came in widely below estimates, GDP Q/Q: 1.6% V 2.0%E; Y/Y: 7.7% V 8.0%E; YTD Y/Y: 7.7 % V 8.0%E
- World Bank cautious on Asia: The World Bank warned that Asian economies are at risk of overheating and of increased inflation and that some countries may need to withdrawal stimulus to prevent assets bubbles from increasing.
- G20 lowers debt target: The financial press reported the G20 may consider changing global debt goals of the largest economies to below 90% of GDP.
- Precious metals are sharply lower: A technical breakdown in gold and silver as well as rumored margin calls led gold and silver to recent lows after Friday's sell-off. In addition, JPMorgan added fuel to the fire noting the ECB's claim on Cyprus gold reserves to cover losses in the ELA "sets a precedent", potentially paving the way for claim on other peripheral countries that may receive aid.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU's Barroso Speaks at United Nations in New York
- (RU) Russia's Lavrov meets Finnish Foreign Minister Tuomioja
- (EU) EU, Japan hold Economic Partnership Meeting
- (MX) Mexico Mar Same-Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 0.2% prior
- (PE) Peru Mar Unemployment Rate: No est v 6.4% prior
- (PE) Peru Feb Economic Activity Index Y/Y: No est v 6.2% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell 2.0-4.0B indicated range in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (IS) Israel Mar Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.5% prior
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Feb Current Account: -1.5Be v -1.6B prior; Trade Balance: - 241Me v +5M prior; Exports: 11.9Be v 12.2B prior; Imports: 12.1Be v 12.2B prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Mar CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 1.3% prior
- 08:30 (US) Apr Empire Manufacturing: 6.95e v 9.24 prior
- 08:45 (EU) ECB chief Draghi in Amsterdam
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell combined 7.7B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills
- 09:00 (PL) Poland Mar YTD Budget Level (PLN): No est v -21.7B prior; Budget Performance: No est v 60.9% prior
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Feb Trade Balance: No est v -1.2B prior
- 09:00 (US) Feb Total Net TIC Flows: No est v $110.9B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: $40.0Be v $25.7B prior
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Mar Existing Home Sales M/M: No est v -2.1% prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 10:00 (US) Apr NAHB Housing Market Index: 45e v 44 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.75-5.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $61B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 12:30 (US) Iceland President Grimsson delivers a National Press...
- 13:15 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel, Qatar's Al-Thani attend Investment Forum: Berlin
- 21:30 (AU) RBA Minutes



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