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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Europe shakes off a poor German ZEW Survey

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Europe shakes off a poor German ZEW Survey
Tue, 16 Apr 2013 5:40 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-RBA Minutes reiterates that inflation leaves room for more easing if needed; see signs the econ was responding to low rates
-North Korea threatened South Korea with imminent action unless it apologizes for recent anti-North protests
-Moodys changes outlook on China to Stable from Positive; rating affirmed at Aa3
-CME raises margin requirements on gold, silver & other metals
- UK Treasury: CPI in line with market expectations and down almost half from the 5.2% peak
- Goldman Sachs: Not changing its bearish gold forecast at this time; recent weakness due to Cyprus sale concerns; more momentum to the downside
- Spain, Greece and Belgium Bill auctions results seen solid with lower borrowing costs and improvement in bid/cover ratios
- German ZEW comes in below expectations (as rumored in session); Survey notes that 81% of respondents see no change in rates over next six months


***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: 642M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 575M prior; 116.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 119.9B prior
- (CH) Swiss Mar Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -0.3%e
- (IT) Italy Feb Total Trade Balance: +1.1B v -1.6B prior; Trade Balance EU: 380M v 668M prior
- (AT) Austria Mar Consumer Price Index M/M:0.8 % v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.5% prior
- (NO) Norway Q1 Existing Homes Q/Q: +2.9% v -0.7% prior
- (UK) Mar PPI Input M/M: -0.1% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.7%e
- (UK) Mar PPI Output M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e
- (UK) Mar PPI Output Core M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.4%e
- (UK) Mar CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.8%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.3%e
- (UK) Mar RPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3%e; RPI Ex Mortgage Payments (RPIX) Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.2%e; Retail Price Index: 248.7 v 248.6e

- (UK) Feb ONS House Price Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.4%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar CPI M/M: 1.2% v 1.2%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; CPI Core Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4%e
- (DE) Germany Apr ZEW Economic. Sentiment: 36.3v 41.0e; Current Situation:9.2 v 14.0e

- (EU) Euro Zone Apr ZEW Economic Sentiment: 24.9 v 33.4 prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 5.07B vs. 4.0-5.0B indicated range in 6-Month and 12-Month Bills
- Sold 1.19B in 6-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.530% v 0.794% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.77x v 3.22x prior; Max Yield: 0.572% v 0.820% prior; Tail: bps v 2.6bps prior
- Sold 3.88B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield: 1.235% v 1.363% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.0x v 1.85x prior; Max Yield 1.274% v 1.400% prior; Tail: bps v 3.7bps prior
- (NO) Norway sold NOK3.0B in 2023 Bonds; Yield: 2.14% v 2.60% prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold 1.625B vs.1.25B indicated in 13-week Bills; Avg Yield: 4.05% v 4.05% prior; Bid-the-cover:1.65 x v 1.66x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 116.4B vs. 120Be in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75%
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated 3-Months Bills; Avg Yield: 4.34% v 4.44% prior; Bid-the-cover: 1.99x v 3.04x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 3.01B vs. 3.3B indicated in 3-month and 12-month bills
- Sold 1.406B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.015% v 0.027% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.02x v 2.62x prior
- Sold 1.602B in 12-month Bills; Avg yield 0.0800% v 0.1280% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.45x v 1.86x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -0.50% at 6,312
, DAX -0.40% at 7,678, CAC-40 -0.50% at 3,692, IBEX-35 -0.40% at 7,986, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 15,581, SMI -1% at 7,676, S&P 500 Futures +0.60% at 1,552

- Equity markets in European have added on to the declines seen on Monday's session, despite a slight rebound in mining shares. Factors which have weighed on markets include concerns about the volatility seen in the metals markets and weaker than expected German ZEW data. Banks are mostly lower, led by SocGen and Barclays. During the US morning financial firms, including Goldman Sachs and BlackRock are due to report their Q1 earnings.

- UK movers [Fresnillo +3% (declined 15% during prior session), Rio Tinto +1.5% (rebound in commodity prices, Q1 iron ore output above ests), Glencore and Xstrata have gained over 3.5% on speculation that Chinese officials may approve merger transaction; Michael Page -7% (Q1 gross profit lower y/y), Associated British Foods -2% (broker commentary), GKN -1% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Danone +3.5% (Q1 organic growth above ests); LVMH -3.5% (slowing organic growth), Maurel et Prom -2.5% (Q1 sales declined y/y)]
- Germany movers [Infineon +1% (broker commentary); Henkel -2% (ex-dividend), Carl Zeiss -2% (broker commentary), Symrise -2% (tracking declines in Givaudan)]
- Switzerland movers [Actelion +2.5% (Q1 results above ests); Santhera -8% (FY12 net loss widened), Givaudan -3% (Q1 sales below ests), Sulzer -2.5% (Q1 orders declined y/y)]
- The Netherlands movers [Akzo Nobel +1.5% (broker commentary); KPN -2.5% (concerns related to Dutch mobile rates)]

Speakers:
- ZEW Economist commented that investors were less confident than in prior month as the Euro Zone debt crisis was still a cause for uncertainty
. ZEW noted that 81% of survey respondents saw no change in short term rates over the next six months
- ZEW President stated that there might have been an element of over-optimism in March survey. He did not see the April reading as a turnaround but there have been doubts over the strength of the Euro Zone recovery; Uncertainty has risen due to Cyprus bailout and Portugal Constitutional Court ruling on austerity. Weak Chinese data and JPY currency depreciation showed that the global environment is deteriorating
- Finland Fin Min Urpilainen commented that there were signs of an economic recovery but cautioned that the Italy election stalemate posed high risk to Europe
- France Govt spokesperson: New financial program will target budget deficit to GDP of 2.9% in 2014
- EU's Barroso sent letter to Cyprus Leader on EU funding which noted that Cyprus had obtained higher EU structural funding to help with economic crisis and that funds could be frontloaded. He also noted that Cyprus could request further 'top up' of EU funding
- Netherlands CPB Planning Agency: Dutch economy needs additional 1% GDP growth in 2013-14 period to meet EU deficit limit
- Austria Fin Min Fekter supported Germany's call for changing European Union treaties to allow banking union. New institutions being set up needed proper legal underpinning. The "Chinese wall" between the ECB's new banking supervisory and monetary policy roles was not sufficiently strong. All the elements of banking union - not just supervision - had to be in place before countries could tap ESM for funds to recapitalize struggling banks directly. Austria was holding "good talks" with European Competition Commissioner Joaquin Almunia about restructuring nationalized bank Hypo Alpe Adria . Lastly Austria to reach budget surplus of 0.2% by 2017
- Greece Fin Min Stournaras expected the next aid installment to be paid and he reiterated no need for new measures
- Greece Alternative Min Staikouras: Deposits are returning to banks
- Turkey Econ Min Caglayan: PM Erdogan to launch a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) effort with US during May visit
- Hungary Econ Min Varga confirmed it presented its Euro convergence plan presented to EU Commission on April 15th which focused on spurring economic growth. Hungary cuts its 2013 GDP forecast to +0.7% from +0.9% prior and forecasted 2014 GDP growth at +1.9%. Hungary also cut its 2013 CPI forecast to 3.1% from 5.2% prior and forecasted 2014 CPI at 3.2%. It expected lower interest rates by end of 2013 from the current 5.00% Base rate level
- South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Gov Marcus commented that global crisis has mutated and was not over at this time. She added that some nations had taken extreme austerity but growth in US was a positive for global economy. Domestic growth was slowing with inflation and that the SARB was concerned over inflation
- India Central Bank (RBI) advisor Goyal commented India had room to cut rates as inflation slowed; conditions shaping positively for India's economy. Rate cut room limited due to high retail prices
- SNB reiterated that has no plans to either buy or sell gold (no plans to adjust its holdings)
- Goldman Sachs commented that it was not changing its gold forecast at this time with recent weakness due to Cyprus sale concerns and was maintaining current short gold position
- Japan's Daido Life planned to slow pace of JGB buying and increase foreign bond buying in 2013/14

Currencies:
- The process of heavy deleveraging seemed to subside during the session as evidenced by the softening of the JPY currency and rebound in precious metal prices. The USD/JPY bounced off its 96.51 low in Asia to approach the 98 handle in Europe. The EUR/JPY cross moved from its Asian session lows of 125.94 to test above 128 at one time.
- The EUR/USD shock off a worse-than-expected German ZEW Survey to hold a steady tone. Dealers noted that the pair saw little volatility despite the events on Monday (gold sell-off and Boston Marathon bombing). The Euro seemed aided by AEW comment that 81% of survey respondents see no change in short term rates over the next six months
- Spot gold saw its biggest 1 day drop ever on Monday (in USD terms) and was $25/oz higher ahead of the NY morning at $1,389/oz. Nonetheless Goldman Sachs analysts noted it was changing its bearish gold forecast at this time and attributed the recent weakness due to Cyprus sale concerns. It saw more downside momentum. Goldman did adjust its trailing stop on the position (**Smart trading tactic)
- The European bill auction for Spain saw refinancing costs fall at bill auction while Greece 13-week auction saw a steady yield.

Political/In the Papers:
-(EU) ECB's Draghi: The balance sheet expansion at the ECB is comparable to the Fed's actions - comments from Amsterdam
-(EU) Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem amends official biography after claiming to have received an MA from the University College Cork; Error being attributed to English translation - financial press
-(EU) (SI) Slovenia PM Bratusek: Budget situation is more serious than previously believed, 2013 budget projections were too optimistic; need more time to demonstrate Slovenia does Not need a bailout
-(ES) ECB opinion on Spain amendments to deposit guarantee law: deposit guarantee fund should not purchase unlisted shares
-(US) CME Group raised gold margins by 18.5%, silver margins by 18.4%); effective April 16th
- (JP) During Tuesday's session, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) halted trading in Feb
-(AU) RBA Assistant Governor Debelle: AUD higher than expected due to capital inflows; Still expects China to achieve 7.5% GDP target
-(CN) Moody's affirms China sovereign rating at Aa3; Lowers outlook to Stable from Positive

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (EU) EU Commission Reports on Serbia's Entry Date
- (FI) Finland President, Economy Minister
(IE) Ireland Feb Trade Balance: First Estimate: No est v 2.9B prior
- 06:00 (NO) Norway to sell Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-day Term Deposit Tender
- 07:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Qatar's Al-Thani in Berlin
- 07:00 (TR) Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut Benchmark Repo Rate by 25bps to 5.25%; Expected to cut Overnight Lending Rate by 25bps to 7.25%; expected to cut Overnight Borrowing Rate by 50bps to 4.00% - 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (US) Fed's Dudley Speaks at Staten Island Chamber of Commerce
- 08:00 (EU) ECB chief Draghi in EU Parliament
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Mar Core Inflation M/M: +0.2%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.1% prior
- 08:30 (US) Mar Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.6%e v 2.0% prior
- 08:30 (US) Mar CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.0%e v 2.0% prior

- 08:30 (US) Mar Consumer Price Index NSA: 232.953e v 232.166 prior; CPI Core Index: 232.984e v 232.512 prior
- 08:30 (US) Mar Housing Starts: 930Ke v 917K prior; Building Permits: 942Ke v 939K prior (revised from 946K)
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Int'l Securities Transactions: No est v 13.3B prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.5%e v -0.2% prior
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:15 (US) Mar Industrial Production: 0.3%e v 0.8% prior (revised from 0.7%); Capacity Utilization: 78.4%e v 78.3% prior (revised from 79.6%); Manufacturing Production: 0.1%e v 0.8% prior
- 10:30 (FI) FSA Management Advisor Rajaniemi
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Duke speaks to Bankers in Washington
- 12:30 (CH) SNB member Danthine speaks in Geneva
- 13:45 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble
- 15:00 (US) 2014 Obama budget hearing
- 15:00 (US) Fed's Yellen in Washington DC
- 15:00 (US) Tsy Sec Lew testifies before House panel
- 15:00 (UK) BOE Gov King in Washington DC
- 15:30 (US) Fed member Kocherlakota speaks in Minneapolis
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota in Minneapolis
- 17:00 (UK) BOE member Haldane in Washington DC

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:


Tue 21 Nov
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
23:00 US- Yellen Speech
Wed 22 Nov
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
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15:00 US- final University of Michigan Survey
15:30 US- EIA Crude
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Mon -- 14:00 GMT EZ- Draghi speaks in Brussels. Looking for any policy hints or bias


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 13:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless, Durable Goods
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed -- 15:00 GMT US- final University of Michigan Survey
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