Tuesday April 16, 2013 - 20:50:45 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
Morning Report Wednesday 17 April 2013
Global market sentiment: A rebound in sentiment was helped by the US economic data releases last night. House building, industrial production, and capacity utilisation all beat estimates, but CPI inflation undershot – encouraging those expecting Fed QE to remain intact for some time. The S&P500 is currently up 1.2%, paring about half of the previous day’s loss, while the CRB commodities index is up 0.8% (Brent oil -1.0%, copper +1.0%, gold +1.6%, iron ore -1.1%).
Interest rates: The US 10yr treasury yield fell from 1.70% to 1.73. Fedspeak from doves Yellen, Dudley and Evans was bond-friendly. Eurozone peripheral bonds were again stable, Portugal outperforming with its 10yr yield falling 15bp. Australia’s 3yr bond yield rose from 2.70% to 2.75% and then settled in NY at 2.72%, while the 10yr ranged between 3.23% and 3.28% and is currently at 3.25%.
Currencies: The US dollar index fell around 1% to a six-week low, forming a technically bearish outside-down continuation day. EUR did the reverse, rising from 1.3028 to 1.3202 – a 2-month high. A drop in German economic sentiment curiously coincided with the beginning of the rally. USD/JPY eked a 97.30-98.15 range. AUD extended its grinding recovery from 1.3035 to 1.0398. NZD similarly firmed from 0.8445 to 0.8508. Whole milk powder rose another 4% to a fresh record high, but had no obvious market effect. AUD/NZD slipped from 1.2250 to 1.2202 during the London session.
US housing starts surged 7% in March (well above 1.4% expected). However, the surprise was due to the volatile multiples component. Single-family home starts fell 4.8%, and building permits also fell 3.9% - albeit both off cycle highs in February.
The US CPI disappointed in March, falling 0.2% in the month (1.5%yr, down from Feb’s 2%) - largely due to a 2.6% drop in energy prices, though core inflation trends also remain subdued. Core CPI rose 0.1% (1.9%yr, down from 2% in Feb).
US March industrial production beat expectations, rising 0.4%, and Feb was revised up to 1.1%. A weather-induced 5.3% surge in utility output was the main factor. Other sectors were softer, with manufacturing down 0.1%, mining down 0.2%, and business equipment up just 0.1%. Still capacity utilisation rose a touch to a five-year high of 78.5.
The ZEW index of German analysts’ expectations fell more steeply than expected, from 48.5 to 36.3 in March. Some of this may have been due to concerns around the Cyprus bailout, but it’s consistent with a slowdown in other German business surveys and production data of late.
The IMF lowered its world growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.3% for this year, but maintained its 4% forecast for next year. Expectations for the US and Europe were nudged lower, partly offset by stronger growth in Japan, reflecting its renewed push to escape from deflation. The IMF’s forecast for this year is a touch lower than ours (and won’t have incorporated the weaker than expected Chinese Q1 GDP figures from earlier this week), but is substantially more optimistic than our 2014 outlook, particularly in regard to the prospects of recovery in Europe (the IMF expects 1.1% growth in the euro zone next year; we expect a 0.5% contraction).
Event risk today: Today’s local highlight is NZ’s Q1 CPI. Westpac’s economist expect a 0.4% qoq result vs 0.5% consensus, the high NZD continuing to dampen inflation. Australia has the Westpac leading index – not a market mover. Canada’s central bank rate decision should be “on hold”. The US Beige Book of regional economic conditions is out during the NY afternoon.
NZD/USD 1 day: Yesterday’s bounce should not exceed 0.8550 and give way to a fall below 0.8380 during the next few days.
NZD/USD 1-3 month: The uptrend since June 2012 remains intact as long as 0.8160 holds. The currency benefits from NZ’s strong fundamentals plus a resurgence of NZGB inflows.
AUD/NZD 1 day: The recent corrective bounce was very brief and shallow so we wouldn’t rule out more to come.
AUD/NZD 1-3 month: The trend decline to 1.2100 and lower should resume once this upward correction completes. Relative fundamentals favour the NZD medium term.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1 day: Opening up 2bp at 2.88%.
NZ 2yr swap yield 1-3 month: The downward correction which started on 15 Feb could yet extend lower to the 2.70%-2.80% area. As long as that area holds though, we expect an eventual rise above 3.20% based on NZ’s improving fundamentals and eventual RBNZ tightening.
AUD/USD 1 day: Yesterday’s bounce should not exceed 1.0480 and give way to a fall below 1.0290 during the next few days.
AUD/USD 1-3 month: The recent break above a 2-year old consolidation between 1.0510 above and 0.9850 below is now seen as false. The consolidation continues.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 17 April 2013. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac’s
financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without
notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised and regulated by The Financial Services Authority. © 2010 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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