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Wednesday April 17, 2013 - 10:33:16 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Sweden Central Bank unexpectedly lowers Repo Rate outlook; Germany sells 10-year bunds at record low yield

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Sweden Central Bank unexpectedly lowers Repo Rate outlook; Germany sells 10-year bunds at record low yield
Wed, 17 Apr 2013 5:49 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- China accounting body official calling local govt debt "out of control" has received much coverage, particularly telling after Moody's and Fitch offered downbeat reports on China over the past week
- Sweden Central Bank hold rates steady but unexpectedly lowers its outlook for Repo Rate Path; SEK currency weakens
- Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee Minutes had no surprises. Votes were 9-0 and 6-3 for interest rates and Asset Purchase Target
- Germany sells 10-year bunds at record low yield
- Brazil expected to hike rates later today to fight inflation


***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Mar Consumer Confidence: 44.8 v 46.0e
- (EU) EU27 Mar New Car Registrations: -10.2% v -10.5% prior
- (EU) ECB: 660M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 642M prior; 115.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 116.2B prior
- (SE) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) left Repo Rate unchanged at 1.00% (as expected) and lowered its Repo Rate Path outlook
- (ZA) South Africa Mar CPI (all items) M/M: 1.2% v 1.3%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 6.0%e
- (UK) Mar Jobless Claims Change: -7.0K v 0.0Ke (flat); Claimant Count Rate: 4.6% v 4.7%e
- (UK) Feb Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 0.8% v 1.3%e; Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 1.0% v 1.2%e
- (UK) Feb ILO Unemployment Rate (3mths): 7.9% v 7.8%e; Employment Change 3M/3M: -2K v +60Ke
- (CH) Swiss Apr Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations: 20.0 v 2.3 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Construction Output M/M: -0.8% v -2.1% prior; Y/Y: +0.8v -9.0% prior
- (MA) Malaysia Mar CPI Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK3.5B in 2019 bond; Yield: 1.2850%
- (EU) ECB allotted $0.0B in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.64% vs. $0.0B prior
- (DE) Germany sold 3.349B in 1.5% 2023 Bunds; Avg Yield: 1.28% (record low) v 1.36% prior; Bid-the-cover:1.6 x v 1.6x
- (RU) Russia sold RUB20B in 2023 OFZ Bonds; Yield: 6.93%
- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold 1.75B vs. 1.75B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold 250M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.743% v 0.757% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.8x v 3.9x prior
- Sold 1.5B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.394% v 1.277% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 2.3x prior
- (DK) Denmark to sell USD-denominated benchmark 3-year bonds; guidance seen -2bps to mid-swaps

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 -0.50% at 6,271
, DAX -1.2% at 7,592, CAC-40 -0.80% at 3,655, IBEX-35 -0.80% at 7,882, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 15,470, SMI -0.50% at 7,681, S&P 500 Futures -0.50% at 1,560

- Equity markets in Europe are broadly lower, after opening the session higher. The DAX index has underperformed, with some citing technical weakness as the catalyst for the decline in the German bourse. Additionally, there has been cautious analyst commentary on key German companies including BASF and Deutsche Bank. In London, the FTSE 100 is declining for the 4th straight session. Resource related firms are mostly lower, amid the sharp decline in copper prices. European banks are broadly lower, led by Deutsche Bank. Bank of America and Bank of NY are due to report quarterly earnings during the US morning.

- UK movers [Sepura +7% (raised outlook), Burberry +4% (Q4 sales above ests); Tesco -2% (FY sales below ests)]
- Germany movers [Infineon -2.5% (Intel results), BASF -2.5% (broker commentary), Continental -1.5% (broker commentary), Deutsche Bank -1.3% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [EADS +4.5% (share buyback)]
- Italy movers [Prysmian -5% (cautious outlook commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [GAM Holdings (reported Q1 outflows)]
- The Netherlands movers [ASML +8% (Q1 results above ests, announced buyback)]

Speakers:
- (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee Minutes had no surprises.
Some MPC members worried that more QE might worsen upward drift in inflation expectations and weaken sterling. Again King, Fisher and Miles wanted additional 25B in QE.- Asset purchases could smooth path to new equilibrium. Members saw merit in possibly extending funding for lending (FLS). BOE Reiterates MPC should look through inflation rise, as inflation seen elevated for extended period. Growth outlook broadly in line with Feb forecasts.
- Sweden Central Bank commented after its rate decision that Repo Rate decision was NOT unanimous with members Ekholm and Svensson again advocating for lower rates. The central bank took a more dovish tone when it noted that the Repo Rate needed to stay low for longer period to support recovery and expected it will take longer before inflation attains the 2.0% target. It noted that Sweden economy was showing gradual recovery. House price rise to contribute to faster increase in household debt
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Gov Ingves reiterated that the current level of SEK currency (crown) was not exceptional when looking at the longer term
- ECB's Praet (Belgium): EU starting long adjustment process. He noted that IMF involvement in future bailouts was still highly desirable. He reiterated that saw some signs that EMU fragmentation was being reversed but stressed the greatest challenge was to maintain reform momentum. Essential that joint Euro Zone banking supervision was accompanied with either Euro Zone or EU wide bank resolution mechanism. He reiterated that monetary policy was only a crisis migration tool and could only buy time and cannot be a substitute for reform
- Germany Finance Ministry stated that the govt passed financial stability program and now complied with all EU and national fiscal directives
- France Govt forecasts end-2014 Budget Deficit to GDP ratio at 2.9% and shrink to 0.7% by end-2017
- France Fin Min Moscovici: France aiming for 2% growth from 2015; hopes that programs bear frui
- Cyprus attorney general Clerides noted that its Parliament would have to vote on the 23B troika bailout deal to become valid (**Note: No details as to when a vote would be held)
- Cyprus Central bank commented that its governor Demetriades would not resign and he was fully supported by the ECB
- Italy Finance Undersecretary Polillo stated that the county might need spending cuts of 7B in 2013. Additional funds needed to cover jobless benefits and military mission abroad
- Italy did not need a sovereign bailout but should market conditions deteriorate only a govt with full powers could make such a request. He expected the Italy/German 10-year bond spread to stay between 300-350bps
- Czech Fin Min Pavelek commented that the chance its 2013 borrowing could be lower than planned. He noted that Japanese Yen issue was off the agenda for now because of costs
- Poland Central Bank Winiecki stated that he sae no need or reason to cut interest rates as the domestic economy to slowly rebound going forward. He believed that IMF GDP growth forecast is too low
- Slovenia Finance officials said to plan to issue new Bills in effort to retire as much as 855M in outstanding debt to avoid an international bailout. The government said it planned to auction 500M of new 18-month bills and offer to buy back 855M of outstanding debt at 99.525% of its face value. That debt was set to mature on June 6th
- Russia Premier Medvedev reiterated view of seeing serious risk to economic growth; govt had its own vision for reviving economy
- Poland less likely to have its EU deficit procedure lifted; 2012 Budget Deficit to GDP was wider than 3.5% but below 4.0%
- Italy ex-PM Berlusconi and PD's Bersani might have reached an agreement on the next President with candidate possibly being ex-PM Amato
- BoJ: Japan banking sector would face 6.6T in losses if interest rates rise 1%
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Official: Many bond investors are in favor of increasing JGB operations and buy less of each. The central bank wanted JGB market to understand that the days when the BOJ could do buying operations is limited as hurdles are high to dramatic increase in number of JGB buying operations

Currencies:
- Sentiment hit some air-pockets during the session with dealers trying to find some rationale for price action. A sharp decline in Euro Stoxx prompted the rumor mill into action with concerns of rockets hitting Southern Israel coupled with talk of looming sovereign downgrades in Europe. The USD and JPY moved off their soft tone for a while until the market dismissed the importance of the respective rumors.
- The EUR/USD tested 1.3152 on rumors that Germany and France could be downgraded but brush off the validity of the chatter to recover and probe towards the 1.32 handle.
- The GBP/USD maintained a soft tone even though the BOE minutes had no surprises. The jobs data was mixed but avg wages came in below expectations. GBP/USD dipped below the 1.53 handle with momentum stemming from the EUR/GBP cross.
- The SEK currency was broadly weaker after the Swedish Central Bank lowered its outlook for the Repo Rate path (not expected). The EUR/SEK was higher by 700 pips to test 8.46 level as the market reassessed that the next move could be another cut in rates.

Political/In the Papers:
-(CY) Cyprus Fin Min Georgiades: The sale of gold was troika's decision; exact details are still pending, anticipates gold sale in next few months
-(EU) ECB's Draghi: Target-2 balances have declined off peak, there is much less market fragmentation as a result of the ECB and OMT program
-(FR) Later today, France's President Hollande may announce another 12B in fiscal measures - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
-(DE) German Official: Europe cannot escape downward revisions to growth forecast, need to emphasize growth-friendly fiscal consolidation reforms
-(DE) German annual stability program: German debt to GDP ratio to decline from 80.5% in 2013 to 77.5% in 2014 to 69% in 2017; To run 0.5% budget deficit in 2013; achieve balanced budget in 2014, 2015; and run a surplus of approx 0.5% in 2016, 2017; Report based on govt expectations German economy will grow 0.4% in 2013, 1.6% in 2014. The government forecasts average annual growth of 1.5% from 2015 to 2017
-(GR) Greece Syriza Party leader Tsipras: The handling of the crisis in Cyprus had fundamentally changed the way Greeks should see their country's bailout; Encourages new elections, it will be good for the country.
-(IT) Italy Debt office chief: 2013 funding guidelines estimated at 450B v prior aim of 415B; Expects strong demand for bonds from Asia investors assuming political uncertainty subsides; Conditions not in place yet for issuance of a 30 year bond
-(IT) Italy Treasury sold 17.1B in retail BTP Italia bonds
-(IT) Five Star Movement's Grillo: Open to collaboration if PD's Bersani supports Milena Gabanelli as new Italian President
-(UK) BOE's King: Monetary policy in uncharted territory; Central banks need to remain independent - financial press
-(US) Fed's Evans: Would like to see monthly payroll growth of 300K or even 400K
- (JP) Japan House of Representatives (lower house) approves 92.6T budget for FY13 - Japanese press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) Russia Govt presents Report on Current Work to Lawmakers
- (UK) Former U.K. Prime Minister Thatcher's Funeral
- (BR) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to raise the SELIC Target by 25bps to 7.50%
- (IS) Israel Apr Inflation Forecast: No est v 1.8% prior
- (IS) Israel Mar Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 12.9% prior
- (IS) Israel Mar Trade Balance: No est v -$1.3B prior
- (IS) Israel Q4 Final GDP Annualized: no est v 2.4% prior
- 06:00 (FI) Finland PM Katainen
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Monthly Economic Survey
- 06:00 (PT) Portugal Mar Producer Prices M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.8% prior
- 06:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Estonia PM Ansip on Euro in Berlin
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (FI) Finland Gov reply over no-confidence motion over Cyprus bailout
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 12th: No est v 4.5% prior
- 07:00 (ZA) South Africa Feb Retail Sales M/M: -0.8%e v -1.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.8%e v 1.9% prior
- 07:45 (US) WTO Dir General Lamy in Dublin
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Mar Avg Gross Wages M/M: 4.3%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 4.0% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Mar Employment M/M: -0.2%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.9%e v +0.8% prior
- 09:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel
- 09:00 (US) Fed's Stein (dovish, FOMC voter)
- 09:00 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Decision: expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 1.00%
- 09:00 (CA) Canada Mar Teranet/National Bank House Price index M/M: -0.3%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 2.7% prior; HPI Index: No est v 152.72 prior
- 09:30 (US) Fed's Bullard (hawk, FOMC voter) speaks in New York
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:15 (CA) Bank of Canada Gov Carney post rate decision press conference
- 12:00 (US) Fed member Rosengren speaks in New York
- 13:30 (BR) Brazil Mar CAGED Formal Job Creation: 110.0Ke v 123.5K prior
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book
- 15:00 (US) Tsy Sec Lew
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Mar Total Merchandise Trade Balance: -522.2Be v -777.5B prior; Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance: -934.5Be v -1.08T prior

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



John M. Bland, MBA
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