Thursday April 18, 2013 - 03:48:06 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 18-Apr-2013 -0343 GMT
Consolidation/ correction setting in for most Indices globally. World wants to take stock of future growth prospects before moving higher. The Dow (14618.59, -138.19, -0.94%) gave up Tuesday's gains as earnings have not been upto expectations. Should immediate Support at 14600 break we could see a dip to 14300, delaying the level of 14950 suggested yesterday.
The DAX (7503.03, -179.55, -2.34%) crashed further yesterday and can test 7300-7250 on the downside. Most European indices are deep in the red and that is a worry.
Nikkei (13,329.36, -0.40%) has come off a bit today after rising yesterday. As mentioned, there is Resistance at 13600 and some consolidation between 12800-13600 would be good for a larger upmove later on. Else, there could be danger of a crash later on.
Nifty (5688.70, -0.25, 0.00%) was consolidative, unable to rise past 5730 -5750 zone. Trade might be quiet today, ahead of the long weekend. We need to see if dips to to 5640-15 will find Buyers.
Brent (97.23) has fallen further but has a crucial Support coming up near current levels. But, there can be deeper decline in case of a break below 96.00. Gold (1363.10) is consolidating a bit but remains vulnerable to further decline.
The Euro (1.3045) came off sharply from 1.32 yesterday, unable to break the Resistance. It can consolidate sideways between 1.30-32 for a couple of days. A break below 1.2950 (if seen) would be bearish for 1.27, even 1.25.
Dollar-Yen (98.13) has bounced from yesterday's low of 95.80 and looks likely to consolidate sideways like the Nikkei.
The Aussie (1.0304) had fallen to 1.0269 today and looks weak overall with some chances of seeing 1.0240-20.
Dollar-Rupee could rise towards 54.40-50 today after closing near 54.21 yesterday.
The US 10-Yr (1.69%) has dipped again. The 30-Yr (2.87%) is also lower. This suggests limited risk appetite which is not good. The Germany-USA 10Yr Spread (-0.46%) has dipped back a bit from levels near -0.43%, partly explaining the dip in the Euro.
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Philifed Index
...Expected 3.10 ...Previous 2.00
UK BOE Minutes
...Actual 0-0-9 % ...Previous 0-0-9 %
...Actual 7.90 % ...Previous 7.80 %
...Actual 1.00 % ...Previous 1.00 %
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