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Thursday April 18, 2013 - 10:31:34 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Italy delegates begins process to select a President; UK Retail Sales weaker than expected; Spain bond auction results solid as borrowing cost fall

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Italy delegates begins process to select a President; UK Retail Sales weaker than expected; Spain bond auction results solid as borrowing cost fall
Thu, 18 Apr 2013 5:38 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-G20 Draft to affirm commitment to avoid competitive devaluations; will withhold from direct criticism of Japans policies
- US Treasury Sec Lew seeks that G20 avoid 'beggar thy neighbor' policies
- Brazil Central Bank hikes Selic Target Rate for first time in nearly two years to fight inflation
- BoJ to raise CPI forecast; May set Spring 2015 goal for a 2% inflation target
-Egan-Jones: Downgrades Germany 1 notch to A from A+ (**Note: firm is not currently recognized for Sovereign ratings by the Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO)
- Italy Parliament and Regional delegates meet begin process of electing a President
-Portugal Opposition leader: tells PM & Troika he disagrees with austerity policy; need growth
- PBOC Vice Gov Yi: China FX band will widen more in the future (**Note currently at 1%)
- Spain's 3-tranche bond offering was solid with lower borrowing costs and again selling above the indicated range; 10-year auction yield lowest since Sept 2012
- France sells 5-year Oats at a record low yield of 0.73%
- German Parliament approves Cyprus Bailout package (as expected)

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Mar Nationwide Dept. Sales Y/Y: 3.9% v 0.3% prior; Tokyo Dept. Store Sales Y/Y: 6.4% v 2.5% prior
- (HU) Hungary Feb Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.8%e
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.1% v 7.7% prior
- (IS) Israel Mar Money Supply: 15.5% v 12.9% prior
- (IS) Israel Apr Inflation Forecast: 1.8% v 1.8% prior
- (ES) Span Feb Bank bad loan ratio 10.39% v 10.78% prior
- (UK) Mar Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: -0.8% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.9%e
- (UK) Mar Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M: -0.7% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.2%e

- (HK) Hong Kong Mar Unemployment Rate: 3.5% v 3.4%e
- (IT) Italy Feb Current Account: -1.6B v -4.6B prior
- (PL) Central/Eastern European Apr ZEW Indicator: 29.5 v 49.9 prior

Fixed Income:
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 4.71B vs. 3.5-4.5B indicated range in 2016, 2018 and 2023 Bono bonds

- Sold 1.381B 1.381Bin 3.3% April 2016 Bono; Avg Yield 2.792% v 3.019% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.84x v 1.86x prior; Max Yield 2.819% v 3.046% prior
- Sold 2.04B in Jan 4.5% 2018 Bono Bond; Avg Yield 3.257% v 3.557% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.52x v 3.6x prior; Maximum Yield 3.286% v 3.579% prior
- Sold 1.29B in 5.4% 2023 bonds; Avg Yield 4.612% (lowest since Sept) v 4.898% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.58x v 1.9x prior; Max Yield 4.632% v 4.919% prior
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold total 7.91B vs. 7.0-8.0B indicated range in 2015 and 2018 OATs
- Sold 4.334B in 0.25% Nov 2015 Oats; Avg Yield 0.24% v 0.32% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.24x v 2.3x prior
- Sold 3.577B in 1.0% 2018 Oat; Avg Yield 0.73% (Record Low) v 1.12% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.24x v 2.54x prior
- (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B indicated in 2020, 2022, 2032 and 2042 bonds
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF62.5B in 2016, 2018 and 2028 Bonds
- (IE) Ireland Debt Agency (NTMA) sold 500M vs. 500M indicated in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.195% v 0.240% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.76x v 3.4x prior
- (UK) DMO sold 2.25B in 3.25% 2044 Gilts; Avg Yield: 3.121% v 3.4185% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.69 x; Tail: 0.3bps

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.30% at 6,264,
DAX +0.60% at 7,549, CAC-40 +0.90% at 3,632, IBEX-35 +0.90% at 7,870, FTSE MIB +1% at 15,531, SMI +0.40% at 7,561, S&P 500 Futures +0.30% at 1,550

- European equity markets are mostly higher, as the DAX has seen a slight recovery, following Wednesday's sharp losses. Switzerland's SMI index has underperformed due to declines in shares of Nestle. Also, the FTSE 100 has also lagged, amid mixed trading in mining companies. In terms of the banking sector, outperformers include Deutsche Bank (underperformed in prior session) and French banks. UK banks have lagged. US companies due to report earnings later today include Freeport McMoran, Morgan Stanley, Nokia, Pepsi, Philip Morris and UnitedHealth.

- UK movers [Filtronic +14% (raised guidance), Debenhams +7% (H1 LFL sales +3.1% y/y),Glaxo +2.5% (FDA panel approval), Tullow Oil +2% (broker commentary), GKN +2% (reaffirmed forecast) ;NCC Group -13% (profit warning), New World Resources -9% (withdrew FY outlook), ENRC -5% (concerns about possible probe), Diageo -1% (Q3 sales growth below ests)]
- Germany movers [Infineon +2.5% (broker commentary); Solar World -30% (FY12 losses), SGL Carbon -7.5% (profit warning), Wacker Chemie -3.5% (broker commentary), Vossloh -1% (broker commentary), HannoverRe -1% (broker commentary)]
- France movers [Plastics Omnium +3.5% (Q1 sales rose y/y), Remy Cointreau +2.5% (FY13 organic growth +12.7%), Carrefour flat (Q1 sales in line); Sodexo -8.5% (H1 organic growth slowed)]
- Italy movers [Prysmian -2.5% (broker commentary)]
- The Netherlands movers [Akzo Nobel -3% (Q1 results below ests)]
- Switzerland movers [Syngenta +3% (Q1 sales above ests); Nestle -1% (organic sales growth below ests)]

Speakers:
- German Fin Min Scheauble commented in Parliament ahead of the Cyprus bailout vote
that Europe has made progress in addressing the crisis and stressed that affected member States must undertake reforms. He noted that earlier sanctions needed to provide alert on fiscal woes. Markets remained nervous, but less so as progress was made addressing crisis. He stated that Cyprus aid was necessary to avoid possible contagion and sovereign default as Spain and Italy could have been at risk from Cyprus crisis. He added that Cyprus must share in the cost of its own bailout package. European banking oversight with powers needed, Cyprus showed the need for banking oversight and believed the two largest banks in member States needed oversight
- SNB's Zurbruegg reiterated that the CHF currency (Swiss franc) was overvalued and reaffirmed its commitment to 1.20 EUR/CHF floor
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Dep Gov Jansson: Labor market looks fine; SEK currency (krona) is relatively weak from a long term view
- Spain Feb Bank bad loan ratio fell to 10.39% v 10.78% prior month (Jan). (**Note: Data includes the impact of transfer in Feb of assets to bad bank Sarab by 'group 2' banks)
- Portugal Sec State Guedes: Portugal has no pre-determined date to return to markets
- Slovenia said to mandated banks for bond investor meeting to discuss 2013 funding plans
- Norway Central Bank (Norges) Q1 Lending Survey noted that household credit demand decreased in Q1 with bank standards unchanged. Corporate credit demand rose un Q1 as banks eased standards. The survey saw Q2 Household credit demand unchanged while banks saw rising lending margins
- Moody's published its annual credit analysis on Germany and noted that its Aaa sovereign rating, negative outlook, was underpinned by the country's advanced, diversified and highly competitive economy and its track record of stability-oriented macroeconomic policies. It noted that although Germany's debt as a percentage of GDP remained high at around 80%, the increase during the global financial and euro area debt crises was lower than that recorded by many other large and highly rated sovereigns and should decline to around 70% of GDP over the coming five years.
- India Trade Min stated that its exports did not perform well despite weaker INR currency (rupee) and announced measures to boost exports that included extension of 2% interest subsidy to textile and engineering goods to increase exports
- India PM Economic Adviser Rangarajan: India's phase of low growth has bottomed out
- BoJ revised its outline of outright JGB purchases after meeting with market participants. The central bank to buy more than 7T JGB's per month (about 7.5T/month) and carry out purchase operations about 8x per month v 5-6x prior
- Goldman Sachs Chief Japan Strategist Matsui: JPY currency will decline further if Japanese investors increased its foreign asset demand

Currencies:
- FX markets consolidated its moves from Wednesday that saw the USD and JPY currencies firm. The upcoming G20 meeting in Washington DC likely to have its communiqu affirm its commitment to refrain from competitive devaluation.
- The EUR/USD stayed above the 1.30 handle while USD/JPY pair found its footing back above the 98 level
- The GBP had little reaction to its softer than expected retail sales data with GBP/USD pair at 1.5230
- The 10-year Spanish/German Gov't bond spread at approx 340bps, tighter by 5bps following Spanish auction results

Political/In the Papers:
-(CY) Germany constitutional court rejects injunction of the Cyprus bailout - press; This appears to clear the way for a vote tomorrow in the German legislature.
-(EU) ECB's Weidmann: ECB could adjust rates if new information warrants a change; rate policy is not the central, key issue for the eurozone economy; Overcoming the crisis and the crisis effects will remain a challenge over the next decade.
-(EU) ECB's Praet (Belgium): Depositors should be given more protection than bondholders in the future; Looking at reduction in haircuts for some classes of collateral
- (EU) IMF Stability Report: High corporate debt poses risk to financial stability in Euro-Area periphery
- (IT) Reportedly Bersani to propose former Senate speaker Marini as presidential candidate, with backing from the PDL center right party.
-(US) Treasury Sec Lew: China moves on FX appear to have slowed; US at the G20 meeting will call on steps for countries to avoid 'beggar thy neighbor' policies
-(CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) spokesperson Shen: Export recovery in Q1 showing that stabilizing policy is effective - financial press; EU is stabilizing, while US recovery is gaining steam; China's exports in coming months will be volatile, as external demand remains weak.
- (CN) China PBOC's Vice Gov Yi: Expecting China to increase the FX trading band more in the short term; FX rates expected to be more market oriented
-(CN) For the week, the PBoC drained a net of CNY14B in liquidity vs CNY17B prior (9th straight weekly drain)
-(CN) PBoC official/researcher Jin Zhongxia said that China should be cautious in opening up its capital account and reforming the yuan due to risks related to global liquidity levels
- (JP) BOJ expected to raise its forecast for consumer price growth; Said to aim to achieve 2% inflation target as early as Spring 2015 as part of its coming policy statement next week (Apr 26th) - Nikkei News

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- G20 finance ministers and central bankers meets in Washington DC
- (PT) Portugal Feb Current Account: No est v -14.4M prior
- 06:00 (EU) EU report on structural funds program
- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell 1.5B in 2016, 2021 and 2027 Oati bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
-07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Apr 12th: No est v $516.9B prior
- 08:00 (NO) Norway PM Stoltenburg
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Mar Sold Industrial Output M/M: +10.0%e v -2.8% prior; Y/Y: -2.2%e v -2.1% prior
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Mar Producer Prices M/M: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.4%e v -0.4% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly Net Export Sales
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 350Ke v 346K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.075Me v 3.075M prior
- 09:00 (RO) Romania to sell up to RON500M in 5.6% 2018 Bonds
- 09:30 (US) IMF chief Lagarde press conference ahead of spring IMF meeting
- 09:30 (CH) SNB member Zurbruegg speaks at Conference in Basel
- 09:00 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in New York
- 09:30 (US) Fed's Lacker Speaks on Credit in Charlotte, North Carolina
- 10:00 (US) API Monthly Statistical Report
- 10:00 (US) Apr Philadelphia Fed: 3.0e v 2.0 prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar Leading Indicators: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior

- 10:30 (FI) Finland PM Katainen in Helsinki
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2014, 2015 and 2017 Bills
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to sell Fixed-rate 2019 and 2023 bonds
- 11:00 (CA) Bank of Canada's Carney Gives Interview in Washington
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Raskin Speaks in New York
- 12:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank (Norges) Gov Olsen in Oslo
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $18B in 5-Year TIPS
- 13:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at Euro crisis and energy event
- 16:15 (EU) ECB member Asmussen, EU officials Rehn and Regling wil Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem in Washington
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Trade Balance: -$90.1Me v -$213.3M prior; Imports CIF: $4.8Be v $5.2B prior

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

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