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Friday April 19, 2013 - 10:31:38 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Italy third round of Presidential sections process doomed from the get go

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Italy third round of Presidential sections process doomed from the get go
Fri, 19 Apr 2013 5:32 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Japan Fin Min Aso informed G20 that BoJ policy was targeting price stability (not FX rate). Japan faced no opposition and reconfirmed G20 commitment on commitment on market driven FX
- German FinMin Schaeuble: European reforms has set the basis for sustainable growth; G20 must honour deficit commitments
- EU's Rehn: EU must ease the tight credit situation in Southern Europe
- French Fin Min: repeats France will not meet EU deficit targets in order to avoid recession
- Italy third round of Presidential voting looks doomed for failure; Centre-Left (PD) Bersani proposed former PM Prodi to party electors its candidate
- (CY) Cyprus parliament approves increase in corporate tax rate; as expected as part of MOU with Troika
- Police encounter massive shootout with Boston marathon bombing suspects; situation remained fluid

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Apr 15th (RUB): 7.57T v 7.43T prior
- (DE) Germany Mar Producer Prices M/M: -0.2% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.4% v 0.7%e
- (PH) Philippines Mar Balance of Payments: +$452.0M v -$960M prior
- (ES) Spain Feb Industrial Orders (unadj) -6.9% y/y, Industrial Orders WDA -2.8% y/y
- (NL) Netherlands Apr Consumer Confidence: -35 v -41 prior
- (IT) Italy Feb Industrial Orders M/M: -2.5% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -7.9% v -3.3% prior
- (IT) Italy Feb Industrial Sales M/M: -1.0% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: -4.7% v -3.6% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb Current Account Seasonally Adj: 16.3B v 13.8B prior; Current Account nsa: +12.1Bv -5.6Bprior
- (UK) Mar Gross Mortgage Lending: 11.6B v 10.6B prior - CML
- (GR) Q4 Greece disposable household income: 32.3B v 35.4B y/y

Fixed Income:
- None seen

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 +0.40% at 6,266,
DAX +0.40% at 7,500, CAC-40 +0.90% at 3,631, IBEX-35 +1.2% at 7,904, FTSE MIB +1.4% at 15,698, SMI +0.50% at 7,614, S&P 500 Futures +0.60% at 1,543

- European equity markets are trading higher led by the FTSE MIB, as the government formation process in Italy continues. Germany's DAX has lagged, as shares of SAP have moved lower on disappointing earnings (follows weaker than expected quarterly sales from Google, Microsoft and IBM). Additionally, the DAX has been weighed down by ex-dividends. European banks are broadly higher, led by shares of BNP and UBS, which have been supported by positive analyst commentary. Shares of Commerzbank have lagged, as the company made cautious comments regarding Q1. Gains in gold and oil prices have supported resource related firms. US companies seen reporting quarterly results later today include GE, McDonald's and Schlumberger.

- UK movers [William Hill +4.5% (Q1 Rev +15% y/y), Fresnillo +2% (rebound in precious metals prices), Anglo American +1.5% (Q1 copper production rose); Spectris -12% (warned on sales outlook)]
- Germany movers [Lanxess +4% (takeover speculation), Stratec Biomedical +3.5% (broker commentary) ;RWE -7% (ex-dividend), Bilfinger Berger -3.5% (ex-divided), SAP -2% (Q1 results below ests)]
- France movers [L'Oreal +3% (Q1 sales above ests), Lafarge +2% (broker commentary), LVMH +1.5% (broker commentary), BNP +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Spain movers [Telefonica +1.5% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Fiat Industrial +3.5% (broker commentary)]
- Switzerland movers [UBS +3% (broker commentary); Holcim -0.50% (broker commentary)]

Speakers:
- ECB's Mersch
(Luxembourg) commented tacould not have joint banking oversight without resolution mechanism. ECB was looking at regulations related to ABS to support funding for SMEs. He expressed doubt of finding any silver bullet' OMT-type remedy for SMEs.
- Greece Fin Min Stournaras commented that no serious State asset sales have occurred yet but speeding up such sales would aid competitiveness, growth and pace of debt reduction. The target for 2013 State Asset sales was at 2.56B with target for 2016 raised to 11.2B
- The third round of voting for Italy's President was underway and looked to be another stalemate. Italy's Bersani proposed former PM Prodi to party electors as Presidential candidate. Italy center party (Monti) noted that it might vote for Interior Minister Cancellieri as President; 5-Star party to continue to vote for Rodota while PDL's Cicchito (Berslusconi party) stated that it would not vote for Prodi as President
- Germany's highest Court to assess ESM/ECB case in early June (**Note: Constitutional Court in Germany moved its decision on the EMU permanent bailout facility (ESM) into 2013. The German court is due to present its final ruling on the ESM and to include an opinion on the ECB's OMT program)
- Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) stated that the Eurogroup approval of its aid loan extension increased avg debt maturity by 2.8 years to 8.5 years
- Russia Central Bank's Shvetsov commented that it might move to floating rates for long-term financing in 2013 and also might move derivatives market to central counterparty in 2013
- China Ministry of Finance official Lou: Major advanced nations should speed up their structural adjustment; US, EU and Japan cannot rely on easy monetary policy
- Spain banks might receive incentives to lend to Small/medium sized firms (SMEs). Plan to improve conditions in which banks obtained liquidity. The plan said favoring use of securitization of loans given to small/medium companies as collateral for finance granted by the ECB
- Japan PM Abe press conference noted that Japan must show diplomatic mettle on Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). He reiterated that BOJ gov Kuroda was carrying out bold monetary easing and asked business leaders to raise wages. Lastly North Korea's actions would bring it no benefit
- OPEC was not formally planning any emergency meeting

Currencies:
- Overall dealers noted that risk appetite was weighing upon the USD and JPY currencies.
- JPY currency maintains soft tone in Europe after Japan faced no opposition at G20 on its bold easing measures.
- The EUR/USD remain stuck in recent ranges with 1.3000 as support and resistance pegged at 1.3100

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Eurogroup chief Dijsselbloem: Decision on direct bank recap expected before the summer - financial press
-(EU) ECB's Weidmann: Monetary policy should not be used to manipulate FX rates, all involved should abide by the G20 FX statements
- (FR) France Fin Min Moscovici: Reiterating France will miss 2013 budget deficit target to avoid recession; Has held talks with German Fin Min Schaeuble - financial press; Believe France will be granted an extension of deficit reduction targets.
- (IT) Italy's Berlusconi calls for new election to take place in June assuming the Govt cannot form a strong Govt
- (UK) BOE's Weale: Vote against QE program does not imply the program does not work, BOE did evaluate the benefits and risks of negative rates; Case for stimulus is better given weaker inflation pressure
- (CN) IMF head of Asia Pacific Singh: no change to China forecast despite Q1 weaker GDP
- (CN) China Dep PBOC Gov: Could use temporary capital controls in extreme cases; have the conditions to encourage capital account liberalization

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (US) World Bank and International Monetary Fund Spring Meeting
- G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Washington DC

- (ES) Spain Feb Trade Balance: No est v -3.5B prior
- 06:00 (IC) Iceland to Sell Bonds
- 06:00 (EU) ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment
- 06:10 (UK)DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (FI) Finland Parliament vote on Cyprus bailout package
- 07:30 (US) German Fin Min Schaeuble with Bundesbank Weidmann in Washington DC
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Apr 5th: No est v $292.7B prior
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Apr IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:00 (PT) Bank of Portugal Monthly Economic Indicators Report
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Wholesale Sales M/M: No est v 0.3% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 1.0%e v 1.2% prior; Consumer Price Index: No est v 122.7 prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Mar CPI Core M/M: 0.2%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.4% prior

- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Apr Consumer Confidence: No est v -24.0 prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Unemployment Rate: 4.8%e v 4.9% prior
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel discusses Integration in Germany in Google 'Hangout'
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (CA) Canada Min MacKay speaks at Canadian Club
- 12:00 (US) Fed's Stein speaks on Credit Markets in Charlotte
- 13:30 (US) ECB member Liikanen speaks at Sifma in New York on EU Banks
- 16:00 (US) Japan Fin Min Aso speaks on Abeonomics
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 1.3% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v -1.7% prior

 

 

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