Monday April 22, 2013 - 03:35:34 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 22-Apr-2013 -0333 GMT
We interpret Equities worldwide being either consolidative or seeing minor profit taking within an overall bullish scenario. There is some divergence, though, with the DAX and the Shanghai looking relatively weak.
The Dow (14547.51, +10.37, +0.07%) closed below the important level of 14600 Friday and could see a dip towards 14300. That should be good for a rise towards 15200 in the medium term.
The Nikkei (13582, +263.80, +0.98%) seems unstoppable. But we would be a little wary now. A rise past 13600 is needed on a Week Close basis to ensure futher gains. Else, the chances of a dip towards 13000-12800 cannot be ruled out. The Shanghai (2234, -9.12, -0.41%) is down today as it was unable to rise past Resistance at 2250 and could be in some danger of falling below 2200.
The Nifty (5783.10) had a stellar week, but faces an important intra-week Resistnace at 5800. This needs to break in order to push Bears out of the market.
Gold (1421.60) and Brent (99.98) are seeing a relief rally over the last few days. Gold, at least, should continue to be bearish in the medium term with solid Range Resistance at 1525. Brent too has Resistance at 103, but also has Support near 97. It could be ranged between 103-07 for some days, before decidng on fresh direction for the coming months.
Divergent moves happening in currencies, but with a largely pro-Dollar stance last week.
The Euro (1.3075) continues to consolidate between 1.30-32, but could be vulnerable to a fall in case of failure to rise past 1.3125 soon. Dollar-Yen (99.79) rose sharply through last week after having fallen on Monday. A rise past 100 this week can set up a target near 102 at least. The Euro-Yen Cross (130.51) looks bullish for a rise towars 132/ 135. This can help keep the Euro above 1.30. But, there is some Resistance near current levels on the Monthly chart for the Cross, which needs to be kept in mind.
The Pound (1.5239) has come down through last week to test important Support at 1.5200 and might attract Buyers this week. The Aussie (1.0229) has also fallen through last week. It could dip a little more to test important Support at 1.02 this week.
Dollar-Rupee had closed lower near 53.9650 on Friday. It needs to break below 53.80-75 to trigger a lasting decline. Else, while above 53.80-75, there could be some chances of seeing 54.35-50 on an intra-week basis.
The German-US 10-Yr Spread has come off a bit below -0.45%. It could consolidate a bit before moving up past -0.40%. That would be good for the Euro, if it happens.
14:00 GMT or 19:30 IST US Existing Home Sales
...Previous - 4980 K
EU EA (17) Curr Acct Bal
...Actual 16.30 EUR Bln ...Previous 13.80 EUR Bln
CA Inflation Y/Y
...Actual 1.00% ...Previous 1.20 %
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