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Monday April 22, 2013 - 10:07:48 GMT
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sk-on sentiment initially took a firm hold on the outset of the European session aided by G20 rubber stamped Japan's stimulus policies over the weekend, and with the Italian parliament having elected EU Market Update: Risk-on sentiment prevails following selection of an Italian President and G20 lack of criticism over Japan's bold easing
Mon, 22 Apr 2013 5:35 AM EST

- Fitch become the second major rating agency to cut the UK sovereign AAA rating by a notch
- G20 summit highlight was lack of criticism that Japan received regarding its monetary policy; pave the way for USD/JPY to test parity (100)l Nikkei225 closes at fresh 5-year high
- China PBoC Gov Zhou: country would sacrifice near-term growth in order to restructure the economy
Japan's big life insurers begin to publicly disclose their investment plans for the current FY
- Italy delegates re-elect 87-year old Napolitano to a second 7-year term; Moves towards ending political paralysis should be made within days. A move to form a government is likely to occur later this week
- Fed Chairman Bernanke will miss this year's Jackson Hole Fed event in Aug due to a personal scheduling conflict; his absence will result in a Fed chairman not attending the event for the first time in 25 years.
- Sweden Central bank has one of it most dovish members (Svensson) resign, effective may 20th)
- ECB members (Weidmann, Asmussen, Nowotny, Knot, Bonnici and Constancio) very chatty on low interest rates and hinting that more cuts could come if growth outlook deteriorated

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Mar Supermarket Sales Y/Y: +1.7% v -5.5% prior
- (DK) Denmark Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.5% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -4.4 v -3.9% prior
- (DK) Denmark Apr Consumer Confidence Indicator: -2.8v -1.0e
- (CH) Swiss Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 9.9% v 9.8% prior
- (JP) Japan Mar Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -0.4 v -4.7% prior
- (EU) ECB: 51M borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 105.6B parked in deposit facility vs. 115.1B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Mar House Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: -7.0% v -8.3% prior
- (GR) Greece Feb Current Account: -716M v -222M prior
- (TW) Taiwan Mar Export Orders Y/Y: -6.6% v +1.8%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Mar CPI Composite Index Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.7%e
- (EU) Euro Zone 2012 Govt Debt/GDP Ratio: 90.6% v 87.3% prior

Fixed Income
- (EU) EFSF to sell 1.5% Jan 2020 bond
- (NO) Norway sold NOK5.0B in Mar 2014 Bills; Yield: 1.55%


FTSE 100 +0.80% at 6,339,
DAX +0.70% at 7,515, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3,670, IBEX-35 +1.1% at 8,005, FTSE MIB +2.3% at 16,116, SMI +0.70% at 7,674, S&P 500 Futures +0.60% at 1,556

- Equity markets in European are broadly higher, led by Italy's FTSE MIB, which has outperformed after Napolitano's presidential term was extended. In terms of corporate earnings for Europe, Philips has declined, after reporting weaker than expected quarterly sales. Resource-related firms are trading mixed, amid the declines being seen for copper prices. Italian banks have outperformed among the European financials, tracking the gains being seen for Italy's sovereign bond prices. US companies due to report earnings later today include Caterpillar and Haliburton.

- UK movers [Betfair +3% (rejected takeover bid); Spirent Communications -4.5% (cautious Q1 comments)]
- Germany movers [SMA Solar +11% (M&A in sector), Aurubis +3% (broker commentary), ThyssenKrupp +2.5% (interest in US plants), SGL Carbon +2.5% (M&A speculation)]
- France movers [Natixis +3.5% (broker commentary), Accor +2.3% (broker commentary), Suez Environmental +1% (Q1 EBITDA above ests, reaffirmed forecast), Hermes +0.70% (Q1 sales above ests), EADS +0.70% (broker commentary)]
- Italy movers [Italian financials have outperformed on the extended term for Napolitano as President, decline in sovereign bond yields]
- The Netherlands movers [Philips -2% (Q1 sales below ests)]
- Belgium movers [Delhaize +8.5% (Q1 profits above ests)]

- ECB's Knot
commented that the central bank needed to assess carefully when to cut interest rates as it had little ammunition left and needed to use it at the right moment
- ECB's Bonnici (Malta) commented that ECB interest rates were very accommodative and helping economy. He added that the impact of additional cuts would be limited. He noted that it was not at the point where ECB staff forecasts would need to cut growth outlook. In general downside economic risks were diminishing with some positive signs from some EMU members. Global environment was more benign in 2013 and the current level of Euro currency gives EMU a positive push. A softer Euro would help exports
- ECB's Kanjec reiterated view that economic downside risks remained but remained optimistic
- ECB's Constancio commented that an interest rate cut always possible and dependent on new data. ECB forecast of growth returning to Euro Zone in H2 of 2013 was still basically valid He noted that bank liquidity posed no inflation risk on ECB's time horizon and reiterated that inflation expectations were well anchored, and inflation is under control
- Sweden Central bank (Riksbank) member Svensson (Dove) to leave Riksbank effective May 20th after failing to receive support for his monetary views (**Note: Svensson consistently advocated for lower rates and rate path)
- Riksbank commented that it was working to find replacements for two departing members in May (**Note Wickman-Parak also will step down next month)
- German Chancellor Merkel: Europe's future prosperity at stake in current crisis. She reiterated that Europe must balance economic growth with debt
- Spain Budget Min Montoro commented that markets were showing confidence in Spain at current time as the government risk premium was declining. He reiterated that2013 was expected to be last year of recession and saw inflation closer to 1% than 2% for 2013
- Poland PM Tusk commented that a joint German-Polish press conference in Berlin that the Euro itself was not the cause of the debt crisis. He reiterated that Poland was not racing to join EMU but it remained a goal. Poland was determined to enter EMU as soon as possible but had no exact date is set for entry. Euro was a bit less popular at this time in Poland
- EU's Barroso: Current austerity policy had reached its limits to fight financial crisis
- EFSF Frankel stated that it was on track to meet 2013 funding target and tighter bond spreads showed that Euro Zone support strategy was working. Deepest demand seen at 3-year, 5-year, 7-year and 10-year bonds; would consider a 30-year issuance. Japan's supports of EFSF issues were basically stable; Asia demand above average at recent 5-year issuance. Asian investors present participation at the shorter end of curve. He did not rule out samurai issue in the future but focus was on Euro-denominated benchmark issuance. Expected to see ESM long-term issuance from H2. Lastly he noted that Cyprus had minimal impact on markets
- Fitch analyst Riley commented that Italy needed a govt to lead the country out of recession (*Reminder: On Mar 8th Fitch cut Italy sovereign rating to BBB+ from A-, outlook remained negative)
- Fitch analyst Riley also commented on the UK following its AAA was cut last Friday that the country had slowed pace of deficit reduction and did not see much room for UK to move on major stimulus
- Morgan Stanley Economist Bartsch revised his ECB interest rate forecast and now forecasted that the main 7-day Refi cut of 25bps by June
- Thailand Central Bank Asst Gov Paiboon commented that the THB currency (Baht) had strengthened too quickly and noted that it did have measures ready but would examine situation before deciding whether to use any measures to curb THB currency volatility
- Bank of Korea Parliamentary report noted that it would impose market-stabilizing measures if necessary and would study contingency plan in event of greater capital flight or greater geopolitical risk threaten financial markets
- UAE OPEC Gov Al-Yabouni: OPEC saw global oil inventories around 5-6% above average
- Libya OPEC Min Al-Arussi: Libya crude output currently 1.5M bpd, to ask for quota incease at next OPEC meeting
- Iran and UN nuclear watchdog to hold next round of talks on May 21st in Vienna

- Risk-on sentiment initially took a firm hold on the outset of the European session aided by G20 rubber stamped Japan's stimulus policies over the weekend, and with the Italian parliament having elected Napolitano as president for the second term
- The EUR/USD remained locked within recent ranges but edged closer towards the lower end of the 1.30 handle. ECB members (Weidmann, Asmussen, Nowotny, Knot, Bonnici and Constancio) were very chatty the past few days talking about interest rate levels and all seemed to hint that more cuts could come if growth outlook deteriorated
- The Asian session was focused on JPY currency after Japan got backing from the G20 for its bold policy stance. The USD-JPY probed towards 100.00 but fell just under 15 pips shy. The last time this parity level was tested was back in April 2008. Dealers continue to watch various Japanese Life Insurance companies and their respective FY14 funding plans. Overall it was likelythe Lifers to allocate money out of domestic JGB markets and look to purchase more int'l bonds.
- The SEK currency formed after Sweden Central bank (Riksbank) member Svensson (Dove) announced his resignation effective May 20th after failing to receive support for his monetary views

Political/In the Papers:
- Spain to miss deficit targets due to weak growth: Spain's Fin Min De Guindos said Spain will avoid any increases in austerity that could further slow growth after he said 2013 GDP growth could be in the range of -1.5% to -1.0% below the current forecast of -0.5%. The govt plans to officially downgrade forecasts on April 26th.
- ECB cautious on further monetary stimulus: Several members of the ECB spoke late Friday warning European growth rates will be low for years to come and the risk of ultra-easy monetary policy rises the longer it goes on. The ECB's Asmussen said monetary policy is already "very accommodating" and that more rate cuts would not likely filter down to the real economy while Nowotny commented that it is too early to say if rates should be cut further.
- G20 greenlight's Japan's monetary policy: The JPY is weaker and Japanese stocks are higher after the G-20 meeting end in Washington with G20 nation offering no opposition to the BoJ plan to buy over 7T in bonds per month. Japanese Fin Min Aso spoke Friday reiterating the Abe administration's stance saying Japan must use every means to beat deflation. Deflation is very harmful, its like "slow motion death." The 100.00 level in USD/JPY will be closely watched with many desks being sellers of USD/JPY in defense of options at the 100 strike.
- 87 year old Napolitano re-elected as President of Italy; Bersani resigns as PD leader: After splintered political parties in Italy were unable to agree on a suitable candidate Napolitano agreed to stay on as head of state. After squandering a large lead Bersani barely beat Berlusconi failing to win enough votes to produce a Senate majority. Bersani's failure to elect a suitable President amid splinters within his own PD party forced his resignation. Napolitano got 738 votes, well above the 504 majority required.
- Search for answers in Boston bombing: After being heavy sedated Boston bomber Dzhokhar Tsarnaev remains in serious but stable condition unable to speak. He has recently begun answer questions in writing as the search begins for answers to his motives. Rebels in Russias North Caucasus region have denied any ties to the Boston Marathon bombers.
- (IT) Political commentators in Italy indicating that the re-election of Pres Napolitano raises hope of a resolution to a political stalemate - financial press
-(IT) On Friday, Italian press reports indicated that Bersani claimed that he would resign after a president for Italy had been elected
- (GR) Greece may receive 3.2B of bailout funds earlier than expected to help it cover financing needs - Greek press reports
-(ES) Spain Fin Min De Guindos: Sees 2013 GDP in a range of -1.5% to -1.0% before returning to "slight" growth in 2014
- (UK) Fitch cut UK's sovereign rating late Friday from AAA. The downgrade of the UK's sovereign ratings primarily reflects a weaker economic and fiscal outlook; Fitch has revised down its forecast economic growth in 2013 and 2014 to 0.8% and 1.8%, respectively, from 1.5% and 2.0% at the time of the last review of the UK's sovereign ratings in September 2012.
-(UK) UK Fin Min Osborne: Changes to the funding for lending scheme (FLS) could be made shortly
-(UK) UK plans privatization within five to eight years to cut debt - financial press; Plans to wholly or partly privatized as many as half of the 21 companies that UK govt have shares, including Royal Mail Group, Urenco,etc.
-(US) Fed Chairman Bernanke to skip this year's Jackson Hole conference due to a scheduling conflict; Report noting this is the first time Fed chairman will not attend in 25 years.
-(CN) PBoC's Zhou: unconventional monetary policy from advanced nation's central banks cannot singlehandedly fix the structural problems in those economies; Slower GDP in Q1 was "normal"
-(JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Japan economy will take 2 or 3 years to reach self-sustaining growth path; Global attention given to Japan's debt burden will probably prevent a major rise in the Yen.

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (NL) Netherlands Parliament debates Cyprus bailout package (vote on Tuesday)
- (AT) Austria Parliament to vote on Cyprus Bailout package
- (EU) EU Commission Rehn
- (US) Fed's Dudley
- (AR) Argentina Apr Consumer Confidence: No est v 46.91 prior
- (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banamex) Survey of Economists
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) announces size of Tuesday Bill auction
- 06:00 (IS) Israel to sell Bills and Bonds
- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell Up to RON300M in 5.75% 2-16 Bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:30 (EU) EU Foreign Ministers Hold Meeting in Luxembourg
- 07:00 (EU) ECB member Coeure (France) in Vienna
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
- 08:30 (US) Mar Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index: 0.35e v 0.44 prior
- 08:50 (FR) France Debt Agency to sell combined 8.0B in 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month bills
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Retail Sales: 0.9%e v 1.8% prior
- 09:15 (NO) Norway Central Bank Gov Olsen
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 09:30 (EU) ECB announces prior settlements in SMP program to offset bond purchases
- 10:00 (EU) EU's Almunia in Brussels
- 10:00 (US) Mar Existing Home Sales: 5.00Me v 4.98M prior
- 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Apr Advanced Consumer Confidence: -24.0e v -23.5 prior final

- 10:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy speaks on Economic Reforms at Conference
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $3.00-3.75B in Notes
- 11:15 (EU) EU's Barroso with US Sec of State Kerry
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $60B in 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 13:00 (EU) ECB's Noyer speaks in New York
- 14:30 (EU) BoE's Tucker speaks in New York
- 21:45 (CN) China Apr HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI: 51.4e v 51.6 prior
- (EG) Egypt Holds Parliamentary Elections First


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