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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Disappointing German PMI data sets up increased expectations of an ECB rate cut

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Disappointing German PMI data sets up increased expectations of an ECB rate cut
Tue, 23 Apr 2013 5:34 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
-China Apr HSBC Flash PMI Manufacturing come in below expectations at 50.5 v 51.5e; points to tepid second-quarter recovery
- S&P: Japan's credit quality hinges on bold growth strategy; still sees over 1/3 chance of a sovereign downgrade due to uncertainty on govt's plans for growth
- EU Commission ready to give Spain extra 2 years to meet deficit targets to 2016
- Major European PMI data mixed; France better than expectations while Germany disappoints; data sets up increased expectations of an ECB rate cut; stocks supported on view
- Spain bill auction results solid, sells 3.02B vs. 2.0-3.0B target at lower borrowing costs
- Risk aversion sentiment pushes German 10-year Bund Yield below 1.20% for fresh 2013 low

- Italy 10-year Govt Yield dips below 4.00% for first time since Nov 2010
- Italy President Napolitano to begin consultations on forming govt today

***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore Mar CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.6%e
- (JP) Japan Apr Small Business Confidence: 49.4 v v 49.7 prior
- (CH) Swiss Mar Trade Balance (CHF): 1.9BB v 1.8Be; Real Exports real M/M: +5.1% v -0.7% prior; Real Imports M/M: +2.0% v -5.0% prior
- (FI) Finland Mar Unemployment Rate: 9.0% v 8.8%e
- (TH) Thailand Mar Customs Trade Balance: -$0.9B v -$2.0Be; Customs Exports Y/Y: 4.6% v 2.3%e; Customs Imports Y/Y: -11.5% v -8.7%e
- (FR) France Apr Business Confidence: 88 v 89e; Production Outlook Indicator: -49 v -43e; Own-Company Production Outlook: -3 v -4e v 0 (flat); Business Survey Overall Demand: -22 v -18 prior
- (FR) France Apr Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 44.4 v 44.1e; PMI Services: 44.1 v 42.0e
- (ZA) South Africa Feb Leading Indicator: 133.3 v 132.2 prior
- (EU) ECB: 0.0 borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 51.0M prior; 108.2B parked in deposit facility vs. 105.6B prior
- (DE) Germany Apr Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 47.9 v 49.0e; PMI Services: 49.2 v 51.0e (first contraction since Nov in Services)
- (NL) Netherlands Feb Consumer Spending Y/Y: -2.2% v -2.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.8% v 8.5%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 8.4% v 8.2%e
- (IT) Italy Q1 Industrial Production -0.2% q/q
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 46.5 v 46.7e; PMI Services: 46.6 v 46.5e; PMI Composite: 46.5 v 46.5e
- (TW) Taiwan Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: -3.3% v +1.8%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: % v +1.0%e
- (IT) Italy Mar Consumer Confidence: 86.3 v 85.0e
- (PL) Poland Mar Retail Sales M/M: 16.8% v 17.0%e; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.3%e
- (PL) Poland Mar Unemployment Rate: 14.3% v 14.4%e
- (ES) Bank of Spain (BOS) monthly Bulletin: Forecasts Q1 GDP -0.5% q/q
- (UK) Mar Public Finances (PSNCR): 31.3B v 18.0Be; PSNB ex Interventions: 15.1B v 15.5Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: 16.7B v 13.8Be

- (ES) Spain Q1 House Price Index Q/Q: -0.8 v -2.2% prior; Y/Y: -7.7% v -9.8% prior
- (IT) Italy Mar Non-EU Trade Balance: 2.6B v 0.7B prior
- (IC) Iceland Mar Wage Index M/M: 1.3% v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.2% prior

Fixed Income
- (UK) DMO increases 2013-13 Gilt Sales to 155.7B from 151.0B prior

- (IN) India sold total INR100B vs. INR100B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- (DE) Denmark sold total DKK4.09B in 2016 and 2023 Bonds
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total 3.02B vs. 2.0-3.0B indicated range in 3-Month and 9-Month Bills
- Sold 855M in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.120% v 0.285% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.76x v 3.3x prior; Max Yield: 0.150% v 0.340% prior;
- Sold 2.156B in 9-month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.787% v 1.007% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.37x v 2.4x prior; Max Yield: 0.825% v 1.060% prior
- (CH) Switzerland sold CHF754M in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.111% v -0.111% prior
- (EU) ECB allotted 110.4B in 8-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75% vs 116Be
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Months Bills; Avg Yield: 4.26% v 4.34% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.71x v 1.99x prior

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 +0.90% at 6,334,
DAX +0.50% at 7,513, CAC-40 +1.5% at 3,706, IBEX-35 +1.4% at 8,142, FTSE MIB +1% at 16,178, SMI +1.3% at 7,712, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,555

- Following the release of better than expected PMI data from France, European equity markets moved to session highs. However, markets have since pared gains on weaker than expected PMI data out of Germany. Additionally, disappointing Chinese PMI has weighed on markets. In terms of European earnings, Arm Holdings, Safran and TomTom have risen after reporting quarterly results above expectations, while KPN has moved lower on weaker than expected results. European banks are broadly higher, led by shares of BNP and Santander. Resource related firms are mixed, as copper prices have traded at more than 1-yr lows. Companies seen reporting results during the US morning include Dupont and Xerox. Apple is due to report its results after the US equity close.

- UK movers [ARM Holdings +7.5% (Q1 results above ests), Premier Foods +2% (reaffirmed forecast), Associated British Foods +1.5% (H1 sales above ests)]
- Germany movers [Aixtron +5% (tracking gains in Vecco); Telefonica Deutschland -3% (broker commentary), Freenet -3% (broker commentary), Continental -0.50% (tracking declines in Michelin)]
- France [STMicroelectronics +5% (Q1 margins rose), Safran +2.5% (Q1 sales above ests, raised FY guidance), Schneider Electric +2%(reaffirmed forecast), EADS +1% (broker commentary); Biomerieux -3.5% (Q1 sales declined y/y), Michelin -2% (Q1 sales declined y/y)]
- Switzerland movers [Richemont +5% (FY13 outlook), Swatch +1.5% (tracking gains in Richemont)]
- Italy movers [Fiat +1.7% (broker commentary); Brunello Cucinelli -1.7% (share placement)]
- Spain movers [Santander +1.8% (broker commentary)]
- The Netherlands movers [TomTom +4% (Q1 sales above ests); Imtech -6.5%(additional write downs), KPN -1.5% (Q1 results below ests)]

Speakers:
- Bank of Spain (BOS) monthly Bulletin forecasted Q1 GDP -0.5% q/q and -2.0% y/y.
It noted that the ECB was tracking economic data with special attention
- Cyprus Fin Min Georgiades stated that the Govt was fully committed to bailout deal and believed Parliament would approve measures. He noted that gold sales were on the agenda. Capital control measures could be eased in next days or weeks
- EU lawmakers say a draft deal has been reached on bail-in rules
- Norway FSA commented that its domestic economy was vulnerable to weaker terms of trade as many companies were struggling with effects of strong NOK currency (krone). House prices and debt were outstripping income growth and added that households were vulnerable to unemployment and higher interest rates
- Poland Stats Office commented that it did not see a turnaround in Q1 GDP
- OECD forecasted Japan GDP growth outlook at 1.4% for both 2013 and 2014 period and stated that the BOJ's 2% inflation target was welcomed. Japan was not targeting its exchange rate/ It noted that BOJ's new quantitative and qualitative monetary easing should be implemented to meet the new 2% price stability target, although this might not be enough. BOJ should maintain accommodative stance until 2% inflation target is achieved. Ending deflation and increasing economic growth were key to slowing the country's fiscal problems and stressed that Consumption tax above 10% was needed to balance the country's budget
- India PM Economic Adviser Rangarajan commented that the current FY14 GDP growth was seen 6.4% vs. 5.0% y/y. He added that he believed that FY13 GDP growth of 5.0% would be revised highr. He saw FY14 Wholesale Prices (WPI) at 6.0% and noted that a slowdown in inflation would allow more room for central bank (RBI) easing

Currencies:
- Disappointing Chinese flash PMI data prompted some initial risk aversion in Asia and weaker German advance PMI added to some concerns and increased expectations of an ECB rate cut particularly after Bank of Spain commented that the ECB was tracking economic data with special attention
- The EUR/USD moved below the 1.30 handle on the back of the German PMI data miss and now targeted a test of the 200-day mvg avg at 1.2935. Dealers will now focus on Wednesday release of Germany's IFO survey
- The JPY benefited from risk aversion sentiment and its inability to break beyond the 100 handle against the greenback. The USD-JPY had probed towards 100.00 on Monday by but fell just under 15 pips shy. The pair retraced to test below 98.50 in today's session.
- The GBP was mixed in the session. GBP/USD tested below 1.52 after UK public finances and net borrowing showed higher deficits And DMO increased its 2013-14 Gilt issuance by 4B
- German 10-year Bund Yield below 1.20% for fresh 2013 lows (near all-time record low) after disappointing data.
- Peripheral yields continued to move lower. The Italy 10-year Govt Yield dipped below 4.0% for the first time since Nov 2010 while Spain 10-year was approaching 4.35% level.

Political/In the Papers:
-(IT) Italy President Napolitano officially sworn in for a second term; Napolitano confirmed that he would begin talks on forming a new government on Tuesday
- (ES) New bill introduces a 'Spanish Troika' (INE, BoS, and General Comptroller of the State) to oversee all national and regional budgets- Expansion
-(CN) China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT): China export situation does not look optimistic; industrial economy faces certain downward pressure
-(JP) S&P: Japan credit quality hinges on bold growth strategy; Sees a more than one-third chance will lower our 'AA-' long-term sovereign ratings on the nation; S&P currently has Japan's sovereign outlook at negative

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (IE) EU/IMF/ECB Troika begins 10th review of Ireland
- (NL) Netherlands Parliament votes on Cyprus bailout package
- (IT) Italy President Napolitano to begin consultations on forming govt
- (EU) EU General Affairs Ministers hold Meeting in Luxembourg
- (EU) NATO Foreign Ministers hold Meeting in Brussels
- (EU) EU's Barroso at luncheon
- (US) President Obama hosts Qatar Emir
- 06:00 (UK) Apr CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -13e v -15 prior; Selling Prices: 5e v 5 prior; CBI Business Optimism: 0e v 0 (flat) prior
- 06:00 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds
- 06:30 (EU) ESM to sell 3-month bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (EU) ECB 7-day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases under SMP
- 07:00 (UK) BOE member McCafferty in Coventry
- 07:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 08:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut its Base Rate by 25bps to 4.75%
- 08:00 (CL) Chile Mar PPI M/M: No est v 0.3% prior
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Retail Sales M/M: 0.3%e v 1.0% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: 0.6%e v 0.5% prior
- 08:45 (CA) Bank of Canada Carney at banking committee
- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 08:58 (US) Apr Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 53.5e v 54.6 prior
- 09:00 (US) Feb House Price Index M/M: 0.7%e v 0.6% prior
- 09:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 09:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 3-Month Refinancing Tender
- 10:00 (US) Apr Richmond Fed: 2e v 3 prior
- 10:00 (US) Mar New Home Sales: 416Ke v 411K prior

- 10:30 (FI) Finland Central bank's Kangas Speaks
- 10:45 ((ES) Spain PM Rajoy with Slovakia PM Fico in Madrid
- 11:00 (FR) France Fin Min Moscovici presents 2013-17 economic plan to Parliament
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $0.75-1.00B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy with Netherlands PM Rutte
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil to Sell I/L 2018 and 2022 Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 2-Year Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Mar Trade Balance: $965Me v $521M prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Q1 Consumer Prices Y/Y: 2.8%e v 2.2% prior

 

 

 

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