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Tuesday April 23, 2013 - 15:33:46 GMT
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| | Email US Market Update: German April Manufacturing PMI Report Roils Global Markets US Market Update: German April Manufacturing PMI Report Roils Global Markets
Tue, 23 Apr 2013 11:12 AM EST

***Economic Data***
- (UK) Apr CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -25 v -13e (lowest reading since Oct 2010); Selling Prices: 8 v 5e; CBI Business Optimism: 5 v 0e
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Apr 20th w/w: +0.8%; y/y: +1.9%
- (HU) Hungary Central Bank (NBH) cut its Base Rate by 25bps to 4.75%, as expected
- (CL) Chile Mar PPI M/M: -2.9% v +0.3% prior
- (CA) Canada Feb Retail Sales M/M: 0.8% v 0.3%e; Retail Sales Less Autos M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Apr 20th: +1.8% y/y, Apr MTD: -2.8% m/m; Apr MTD: +1.9% y/y
- (US) Apr Preliminary Markit US PMI Manufacturing: 52.0 v 53.9e
- (US) Feb House Price Index M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (US) Apr Richmond Fed: -6 v +2e
- (US) Mar New Home Sales: 417K v 416Ke

- The German preliminary April manufacturing PMI report out early this morning is the major catalyst this morning. The reading was down from the final March number, confirming fears that the German economy is contracting again after a slightly better first quarter. Conversely, the data may also provide the ECB with the justification it needs to cut rates, which is juicing risk assets. Bund and UST yields moved higher. European indices are rocking higher and looking to close at their highs, with the FTSE and DAX up 2% each and the CAC is up 3%. In the US, the DJIA, S&P500 and Nasdaq are all up about 1%.

- EUR/USD approached 1.31 just ahead of the German April PMI report and then plummeted one big figure on the data drop. However the pair drifted back up to around 1.3030 though the US morning. Note that earlier this morning the Bank of Spain commented that the ECB was tracking economic data with special attention. With the move up in Bund and UST yields, peripheral yields are benefitting. The 10-year Spanish/German Gov't bond spread moved below 300bps for first time since March 2012. EUR/CHF cross was testing key 2013 downward trend line with resistance at 1.2230 and dealers added that a break above could lend further support to EUR/USD pair.

- EUR/HUF was especially volatile after an erroneous release of Hungary Central Bank rate decision reported a 400bps cut to 1.00%. It was the first rate meeting of the monetary policy council where only members selected by the governing Fidesz party were present after the resignation earlier this month of Deputy Gov Kiraly. However, the steep cut was retracted and Hungary formally cut by the expected 25bps to 4.75%.

- Shares of Netflix are up 22% this morning after the company crushed earnings expectations in its Q1 report, sustained good subscriber growth and offered very good guidance for Q2. No fewer than eight firms hiked their price targets for the firm. However some point out that the PE ratio of 137x is clearly not sustainable.

- Coach is another big earnings winner, with shares up 11%. The company's earnings topped expectations moderately, and the firm also hiked its dividend by 13%. Coach executives highlighted the Asia business, commenting that total China sales grew 40%.

- Arch Coal is among the worst performing names this morning, down nearly 8% after reporting a bigger Q1 loss than expected and missing widely on revenue. Pricing for the firm's coal continues to contract, although executives claimed that the market is stabilizing and thermal coal has found a bottom.

- Dupont had a very strong Q1 with net income doubling on a y/y basis thanks to strong demand for its drought-resistant seeds plus elevated agricultural prices. Revenue was merely flat and the company reaffirmed its FY13 outlook. DD is up nearly 3%

- Financial services and insurance name Travelers is up 2.5% thanks to very strong earnings performance and a dividend hike.

***Looking Ahead***
- German Fin Min Schaeuble to issue statement on Barroso's austerity comment today
- (IE) EU/IMF/ECB Troika begins 10th review of Ireland
- (NL) Netherlands Parliament votes on Cyprus bailout package
- (IT) Italy President Napolitano begun consultations on forming govt
- (US) President Obama hosts Qatar Emir
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $40B in 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy with Netherlands PM Rutte
- 12:00 (BR) Brazil to Sell I/L 2018 and 2022 Bonds
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 2-Year Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Mar Trade Balance: $965Me v $521M prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Crude Oil Inventories
- 17:00 (NZ) New Zealand Central Bank (RBNZ) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50%
- 21:30 (AU) Australia Q1 Consumer Prices Y/Y: 2.8%e v 2.2% prior


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