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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German IFO Survey comes in weaker than expected

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: German IFO Survey comes in weaker than expected
Wed, 24 Apr 2013 5:45 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- Fake White House tweet rattles markets for 2 minutes.
- Australia inflation data comes in weaker than expected. RBA plans to invest reserves in China.
- RBNZ leaves interest rates unchanged (as expected) and offers upbeat assessment of domestic economy
- Nikkei 225 Index at fresh 5 year highs as it nears 14K.
- AAPL Q2 earnings had margins disappoint but Board approves $60B buyback (15% of market cap); increases dividend 15%. After hours market sees price action+5% then back to flat.
- Germany April IFO Survey comes in below expectations with Business Climate registering its 2nd MoM decline
- Italy auction results solid with 2014 CTZ yield at EMU record low of 1.167%
- German 2044 Bund yield issued at record low of 2.16%; bid-to-cover was light (1.5x vs. 1.8x prior)
- UK DMO I/L 2029 Gilt issuance had poor bid-to-cover (1.51x vs. 2.02x prior)


***Economic Data***
- (CH) Swiss Mar UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.25 v 1.24 prior
- (FI) Finland Mar PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.1% prior
- (CZ) Czech Apr Business Confidence: -0.7 v +2.2 prior; Consumer Confidence: -23.8 v -20.8 prior; Composite: -5.3 v -2.4 prior
- (ES) Spain Feb Mortgages-capital loaned Y/Y: -13.6% v -20.0% prior; Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: -7.5% v -12.4% prior
- (ES) Spain Mar Producer Prices M/M: -1.0% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 0.5% v 2.2% prior
- (AT) Austria Feb Industrial Production M/M: -1.4% v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 2.2% prior
- (EU) ECB: 0.0 borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 102.4B parked in deposit facility vs. 108.2B prior
- (NL) Netherlands Apr Producer Confidence: -5.6 v -4.8 prior
- (DE) Germany Apr IFO Business Climate: 104.4 v 106.2e; Current Assessment: 107.2 v 109.5e; Expectations Survey: 101.6 v 103.0e
- (IT) Italy Feb Retail Sales M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -4.8% v -3.0% prior
- (DE) Germany Feb Conference Board Leading Index: 103.7
- (RO) Romania Mar Money Supply Y/Y: 5.1% v 2.7% prior
- (UK) Mar BBA Loans for House Purchase: 31.2K v 31.4Ke
- (CN) China Q1-end outstanding property loans CNY12.98T, +16.4% y/y; Mortgages +17.4%


Fixed Income
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 2.5B vs. 2.0-2.5B indicated in Zero Coupon Dec 2014 CTZ; Avg Yield: 1.167% (EMU era low) v 1.746% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.66 x v 1.43x prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold 750M in 2.6% I/L 2023 BTP bonds; Avg Yield: 2.65% v 3.02% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.91 x v 2.96x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $1.3B in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.64% vs $0M prior
- (EU) ECB allotted $27M in 3-month USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.63% vs. $451M prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK5.0B in 6-month bills; Yield: 0.9213%
- (EU) ECB allotted 3.0B vs. 4.0Be in 3-Month Refinancing Tender at fixed 0.75%
- (RU) Russia sold RUB20.0B in 2028 OFZ bond; Yield: 7.02% vs. guidance of 7.05-7.10%
- (UK) DMO sold 1.3B in 0.125% Inflation-linked 2029 Gilts; Real Yield: -0.635% v -0.367% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.51x v 2.02x prior
- (DE) Germany sold 1.68B 2.0B in 2.5% 2044 Bunds; Avg Yield: 2.16% (record low) v 2.45% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.5x v 1.8x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency announces it will sell new 5-year bond

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
Indices: FTSE 100 +0.90% at 6,334, DAX +0.50% at 7,513, CAC-40 +1.5% at 3,706, IBEX-35 +1.4% at 8,142, FTSE MIB +1% at 16,178, SMI +1.3% at 7,712, S&P 500 Futures -0.10% at 1,555

- European equity markets are mostly higher, as firms including Credit Suisse, Novartis and Peugeot reported better than expected quarterly results. Additionally, some believe that the probability of an ECB rate cut has increased, following the recent batch of disappointing German data. Italy's FTSE MIB has lagged on today's session, as the country's sovereign bond yields are trading near flat levels. The Spanish IBEX-35 has outperformed, supported by gains in BBVA. European banks are trading mixed, as traders assess earnings reports from Barclays and Credit Suisse. Shares of Italian banks and Commerzbank have underperformed. Resource related firms are broadly higher, tracking the gains in copper prices. US firms due to report earnings later today include Boeing, Corning, Ford and Whirlpool.

- UK movers [May Gurney +16% (takeover offer), DS Smith +6% (guided FY earnings at top of range), Standard Life +5.5% (reported rise in AUM), Thorntons +4% (sees FY results above market forecasts), Barclays +1% (quarterly investment banking Revs rose y/y)]
- Germany movers [Deutsche Post +3% (broker commentary); Commerzbank -1% (credit rating downgraded)]
- France movers [Peugeot +6.5% (Q1 sales above ests), France Telecom +2% (confirmed FY targets), Axa +1% (broker commentary); Accor -1.5% (broker commentary), Zodiac +1% (reaffirmed FY forecast)]
- Italy movers [Finmeccanica -3% (FY sales declined y/y)]
- Switzerland movers [ABB +1.8% (Q1 sales above ests), Credit Suisse flat (Q1 results above ests), Novartis flat (Q1 sales in line)]
- The Netherlands movers [Heineken -6.5% (Q1 results below ests)]

Speakers:
- Italy President Napolitano said to be prepared to name Letta as PM

- German IFO Economists commented that companies were far more cautious than last month. Economist Wohlrabe stated that German economy should grow more strongly in Q2 as exporters remained confident while construction order books were full. He also reiterated view that Survey respondents were not expecting ECB to cut interest rates (**Note in March over 80% held that view)
- Germany Dep Fin Min Kampeter commented that Germany was not supporting any member exit from Euro and it would not support new discussion on fiscal rules. Euro integration was a call for reform and those who ignore the message would be in trouble. He noted that Barroso comment on austerity was 'misinterpreted' as he did not call for new fiscal targets. Kampeter added that Euro consolidation rules were not rigid had to continue on path to consolidation. Rules must be able to react to exogenous shocks
- EU's Barroso commented that the economic outlook was challenging and reiterated that the focus to be on both growth and jobs
- European Parliament Schultz noted in the German press that austerity without perspective for economic growth would lead to a dead end. Budget consolidation and structural reform were indispensable. Austerity alone without a view to end hard measures would not work
- Spain Econ Min de Guindos reiterates aims to improve competiveness with measures to be approved by Cabinet on April 26th. He added that recent indicators pointed towards a recovery in domestic economy
- German Bundesbank's Dombret commented that he saw no bubble in domestic real estate market. He did concede that Germany's economy was growingt more slowly than hoped. He did not see sovereign debt crisis spiraling out of control but reiterated that reform fatigue is the biggest concern in Europe
- Renewed reports circulated that German govt would raise its 2013 GDP forecast from +0.4% to +0.5% and to maintain 2014 GDP growth view at 1.6%
- Cyprus Central Bank and local banks agreed on lowering deposit rates, effective May 1st
- (EU) ECB's Hansson (Estonia): Swedish bank funding might worsen if market confidence was hit
- Czech Central Bank's Rezabek: CZK currency (Koruna) sales are unwarranted
- BoE announced its funding for lending (FLS) extension program to certain non-bank providers of credit with the FLS drawdown period extended to end Jan 2015 from 2014. Incentives for banks will be heavily skewed towards lending for small and medium sized business (SMEs).
- BOE King commented that changes to FLS was a complement and not a substitute for capital and it removed market rate risk for banks. FLS extension to maintain easier bank funding into 2015 and support credit conditions and economic recovery
- RBA Dep Gov Lowe stated that the central bank planned to hold approx 5% of currency reserves in China sovereign bonds. Many Australian business were keen to invoice trade in the CNY, direct AUD/CNY would help
- India PM Economic Adviser Rangarajan commented that inflation was slowing but not near govt 'comfort zone'. He noted that policy changes would be incremental
- S&P report on Japan banking sector noted that it could benefit from BOJ deflation action. If BOJ easing did work then bank lending volume could grow. S&P also noted that banks likely to find investment vehicles for deposits hard to find
- Japan Finance Ministry raised its overall assessment of regional economies (first time in three quarters) as it upgraded 8 of 11 regions. It now noted regional economies were improving at a moderate pace vs. prior view of weakening
- Japan Life Insurance company Sumitomo stated in its briefing on 2013 investing plan that it might shift to foreign bonds if JGB yields stay low with focus on German, French, Dutch and Australian bonds. It saw USD/JPY at 100 and EUR/JPY at 128 by end-Mar 2014

Currencies:
- Overall FX markets appeared to be in consolidation even with strong rallies exhibited in global equity markets. The focus in the session today was the German IFO Survey and clues for any potential ECB rate cut. The IFO did indeed come in weaker with the key Business Climate registering its second MoM decline in its reading and well below market expectations. In the aftermath of its release the EUR/USD posted 3-week lows of 1.2953 but found the poise to recover from its worst level. The pair did not come close to testing its 200-day moving average of 1.2936 and looking to be formable support at this time. Dealers noted that again the IFO Survey respondents were not expecting ECB to cut interest rates. Nonetheless numerous analysts were amending their views. UBS was now calling for an ECB rate cut next week at its May policy meeting (prior was for unchanged rates) citing weak recent spat of data

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) ECB's Noyer: Does not see inflation pressure rising in the euro zone - financial press; An early exit from accommodative monetary policy would be detrimental to emerging markets; Slovenia is not really an issue; Reforms in France remain too slow
-(EU) Netherlands Parliament votes in favor of the bailout for Cyprus - financial press
- (IT) Bank of Italy (BOI): There are downside risks to the Govt's GDP forecasts for 2013 and 2014 of -1.3% and +1.3% respectively
- (IT) Italy democratic party (center-left) indicates it wants to form a Govt - press; Enrico Letta comments that the PD party will follow President's decisions, President Napolitano expected to announce a decision on new govt on Wednesday.
- (IT) Italy's Berlusconi: Hopeful a coalition Govt can be formed, party will give full support to the new Govt
- (IT) Italy center right Northern league party (Lega Nord) indicates it has no intention of being part of the next government - press
- (PT) Portugal Econ Min: Govt launches growth pact; to consider gradually cutting corp tax rate - financial press
-(ES) On Tuesday, the 10-year Spanish/German Gov't bond spread moved below 300bps for first time since March 2012
-(ES) Spain PM Rajoy: European economy this year is performing worse than forecast
-(US) AP Newswires confirmed that its twitter account was hacked, tweet about White House attack is false
- (US) House Oversight Committee Republican's Issa (R-CA) and Jordan (R-OH) demand details on the Federal Reserve exit plan - press; Oversight committee reportedly plans to use subpoena power assuming the Fed does not comply with its request; claims that the Fed is willfully withholding nonpublic documents
- (CN) China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) economist Zhang: China Q2 GDP growth could fall below 7.5% vs 7.7% in Q1 - Chinese press

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (RU) Russia to sell 2019 OFZ bonds
- 06:00 (UK) Apr CBI Industrial Reported Sales: +8e v 0 (flat) prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell combined CZK10.0B in 2016 and 2023 bonds
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 06:45 (ES) Bank of Spain's Roldan
- 07:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 07:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 19th: No est v 4.8% prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Consumer Confidence: 112.0e v 113.9 prior
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank's Traders Survey
- 07:30 (TR) Turkey Apr Industrial Confidence: No est v 112.1 prior; Capacity Utilization: No est v 72.7% prior
- 08:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel
- 08:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Gov Singer with vice gov Hampl
- 08:30 (EU) ECB member Mersch (Luxembourg) in Dresden, Germany
- 08:30 (US) Mar Durable Goods Orders: -3.0%e v +5.6% prior (revised from 5.7); Durables Ex Transportation: +0.5%e v -0.7% prior (revised from -0.5%); Durables Ex-Defense: no est v +4.5% prior; Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex Aircraft: +0.3%e v -3.2% prior (revised from -2.70%); Capital Goods Shipments Non-defense Ex Aircraft: 0.8%e v 1.9% prior
- 09:00 (EU) ECB member Constancio (Portugal) in Brussels
- 09:00 (BE) Belgium Apr Business Confidence: -14.7e v -15.0 prior
- 09:30 (US) Tsy Sec Lew testifies on international programs
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Current Account: -$6.3Be v -$6.6B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $4.3Be v $3.8B prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase U$1.25-1.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (CA) Canada to sell 2 Year Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $35B in 5-Year Notes
- 13:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with EU President Van Rompuy in Berlin
- 16:15 (CA) Bank of Canada Gov Carney at banking committee
- 19:00 (KR) South Korea Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.7%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.4%e v 1.5% prior
- (DE) Euromoney's Germany Conference 2013

 

 

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