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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK Q1 Advanced GDP avoids technical recession and handily beats expectations

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK Q1 Advanced GDP avoids technical recession and handily beats expectations
Thu, 25 Apr 2013 5:37 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- (JP) Japan investors sold net 862.6B in Foreign Bonds last week vs sold net 331.9B prior week (sellers for 6 consecutive weeks
- South Korean economy grew at its fastest pace in two years reporting a preliminary Q1 GDP of 0.9% higher than the 0.7% expected.
- Spain Q1 Unemployment Rate hits fresh record high of 27.2%
- UK avoids triple-dip recess as Q1 GDP exceeds expectations; Trade-weighted Sterling hit a 2 month high as a result
- Left Ecology Freedom party President Vendola (Italy PD Party ally) says he would not support Letta govt


***Economic Data***
- (FI) Finland Mar Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y -0.9% v -0.6% prior final
- (DE) Germany Feb Construction Orders NSA -1.8% y/y
- (ES) Spain Q1 Unemployment Rate Survey: 27.2% v 26.5%e (record high)
- (EU) ECB: 5.3B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 0.0M prior; 114.1B parked in deposit facility vs. 102.4B prior
- (SE) Sweden Mar PPI M/M: -1.1% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -4.4% v -3.7% prior
- (PH) Philippines Central Bank (BSP) leaves Overnight Borrowing unchanged at 3.50% prior, as expected; again lowers Special Deposit Account Rate (SDA) by 50bps to 2.00%
- (TW) Taiwan Mar M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.5% prior; M1Money Supply Y/Y: % v 5.7% prior
- (UK) Q1 Advanced GDP Q/Q: +0.3% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: +0.6% v +0.4%e
- (UK) Feb Index of Services M/M: 0.8% v 0.2%e; 3M/3M: +0.1% v -0.1%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Mar Trade Balance (HKD): -49.1B v -47.0Be; Exports Y/Y: +11.2% v +9.3%e; Imports Y/Y: +11.3% v +9.8%e
- (ZA) South Africa Mar PPI M/M: 0.9% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 5.7% v 5.5%e

Fixed Income:
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK1.0B in 0.25% I/L 2022 bonds; Yield: -0.091%
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF55B vs. HUF50B indicated in 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 4.02% (record) v 4.16% prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -0.10% at 6,424,
DAX +0.10% at 7,767, CAC-40 -0.30% at 3,831, IBEX-35 -1.2% at 8,292, FTSE MIB -0.10% at 16,548, SMI -0.30% at 7,835, S&P 500 Futures +0.20% at 1,577

- Following recent gains, equity markets in Europe are trading mostly lower, as firms including Astrazeneca, Bayer, Logitech and Santander reported weaker than expected quarterly results. Spain's IBEX-35 has underperformed, amid the rise in sovereign bond yields and declines in shares of Santander. Resource related firms are mostly higher, in line with the gains being seen for copper and oil prices. US companies due to report earnings later today include 3M, Altria, ConocoPhillips, Dow Chemical, Exxon, Harley Davidson, Potash and UPS.

- UK movers [Kazakhmys +3% (reaffirmed FY production target), British American Tobacco +2% (Q1 volumes above ests), Taylor Wimpey +2% (positive Q1 commentary), Vodafone +1% (renewed speculation related to Verizon Wireless stake); Astrazeneca -2.5% (Q1 sales below ests)]
- Germany Movers [MTU Aero +3% (Q1 sales above ests); Software AG -3.5% (Q1 results below ests), Bayer -1% (Q1 results below ests)]
- France movers [Technip +4% (reaffirmed forecast), Nexans +3% (upbeat Q2 commentary), Atos Origin +2.5% (reaffirmed forecast), Thales +1% (Q1 sales rose by 5%); Bull -10% (cut FY forecast), BIC -4% (Q1 sales below ests), Pernod-Ricard -3.5% (Q3 China sales declined), Gemalto -3% (Q1 sales below ests)]
- Spain movers [Santander -4% (Q1 results below ests)]
- Italy movers [Eni -2% (Q1 production declined y/y)]
- Switzerland movers [Nobel Biocare +5% (Q1 results above ests); Logitech -7% (Q1 results below ests)
- The Netherlands movers [KPN -5% (begins previously announced rights offering), Unilever -1.5% (Q1 sales below

Speakers:
- Left Ecology Freedom party President Vendola (Italy PD Party ally): Will not support Letta govt

- ECB's Asmussen (Germany) reiterated the German point of view that impact of an interest rate cut on EMU periphery was limited and that delaying fiscal consolidation was no free lunch. He noted that the ECB can't remove risk aversion or lack of capital and that very low interest rates for too long could be harmful. Asset purchase program not helpful for EMU
- EU's Rehn commented that deleveraging still had a ways to go and that financial fragmentation was still weighing on economic activity. Unemployment was unbearably high in certain states and the EU had twin priorities of increasing economic growth and reducing deficits. EU might extend deficit deadlines for some countries but it will not be a general blanket as many members are willing and able to fix deficits in 2013
- EU President Van Rompuy commented from Prague that the Euro crisis was still ongoing but most acute phase was behind at this time. He added that structural reforms were needed for long term growth
- German Chancellor Merkel commented that Global banking rules must be done in cooperation. She reiterated that Germany opposed joint EU deposit insurance but Germany fully backed joint EU banking supervision. Euro Area needed harmonized borrowing rates. She added that the ECB was in a difficult situation as Germany sees higher ECB rates would be better for itself
- Greece Central bank chief Provopoulos: Country avoided Cyprus contagion, deposits returning to Greece
- Finland Grand Committee chief Kumpula-Natri: Euro can survive if Cyprus wants to exit; Finland is firmly committed to the Euro
- Chancellor Osborne: GDP data is an encouraging sign that the UK economy is healing
- UK ONS Economist Grice: GDP data subject to 0.1-0.2 point error margin
- Spain Govt might sever pension-inflation link
- IMF First Deputy Managing Director Lipton stated that Germany was not saving but its overall budget policy was appropriate. He reiterates that the ECB still had room to ease. He also noted that the GBP currency had played a role in supporting UK growth
- South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Financial Stability Report highlighted that strikes were the biggest threat to the financial sector and could lead to a rise in unemployment
- Philippines Central Bank commented after its rate decision that it would gauge all data to determine whether more interest rate cuts are needed. It noted that risk to inflation outlook remained evenly balanced
- Japan Fin Min Aso reiterated the view that JPY currency weakness was due to policy aimed at tackling deflation and that G20 understood BOJ policy and its purpose. He highly praised BOJ's bold measures in early April but stressed that monetary easing alone cannot improve the economy
- BOJ Gov Kuroda had no comment on current level of JPY currency. He did note that it was important to have sustainable economy growth to address low birth rate and aging of its society
- India government sais to be considering allowing Central Bank (RBI) to move some of the government's cash to commercial banks

Currencies:
- The GBP surge over 100 pips after the UK's Q1 advanced GDP handily beat analyst expectations and the positive QoQ reading saved UK economy from the label of "official recession." The GBP/USD moved above the 1.54 handle as a result. EUR/GBP cross moved over 50 pips lower to test 0.8450. Trade-weighted Sterling hit a 2 month high as a result. The GDP data might have removed the need for any additional QE at the BOE's May meeting
- The Euro benefited from the better UK data and various German commentaries on interest rates but remained contained within recent ranges. Chancellor Merkel noted that ECB is in a difficult situation; for Germany higher ECB rates would be better while ECB member Asmussen reiterated that very low interest rates for too long could be harmful
- The peripherals yields steadily moved higher as the session wore on. Dealers focus on a comment from Left Ecology Freedom party President Vendola (Italy PD Party ally) that he would not support Letta govt

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Cyprus Govt spokesperson Stylianides: Cabinet ratifies loan agreement with Euro Area and IMF; to be forwarded to Parliament for discussion; Expects lawmakers to vote after April 26th
- (EU) ECB's Constancio: Reiterates ECB policy is accommodative and will continue to be to respond to where inflation is falling
- (EU) ECB's Asmussen: Rate cut effectiveness would be muted due to impairment of transmission mechanism - Press interview; Says the success of the UK funding for its lending scheme is questionable.
- (EU) ECB's Mersch (Luxembourg): Do not expect another European nation will slip into trouble.
- EUR/USD: (DE) German government adviser Kai Konrad raised concerns about the sustainability of the euro - London Telegraph; ECB ready to act if conditions continue to worsen
- (ES) Moody released annual sovereign report on Spain: Current rating is based on the rating agency's assumption of a gradual further reduction in the budget deficit to 5%-5.5% of GDP in 2014 from the 2012 level of 7% of GDP (ex capital injections into the banking sector)
-(CN) PBoC plans to inject CNY124B in money market this week( first time in 10 weeks) - financial press
-(JP) Japan PM Abe: not necessary to stick to 44T bond issuance cap - addressing parliament
- (JP) Japan BoJ Gov Kuroda: Volatility in the bond market is decreasing.
- (JP) Japan investors sold net 862.6B in Foreign Bonds last week vs sold net 331.9B prior week (sellers for 6 consecutive weeks)

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- (BR) Brazil Treasury March Federal Debt Data
- 06:00 (DE) German Gov updates macroeconomic forecasts
- 06:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at event in Dresden
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar PPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.2% prior
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Property Prices M/M: No est v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.6% prior
- 06:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Up to CZK10.-B in 9-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Apr 19th: No est v $521.3B prior
- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Construction Costs M/M: No est v 0.3% prior
- 07:30 (UK) BOE member Haldane
- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
- 08:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank minutes
- 08:00 (PT) ECB's Constancio (Portugal) speaks at Brussels Single Market Conference
- 08:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Gov Singer at conference
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Unemployment Rate: 5.9%e v 5.6% prior
- 08:00 (RO) Romania to sell Up to RON400M in 5.85% 2-23 Bonds
- 08:30 (EU) ECB's Coeure (France) with Portugal Fin Min Gaspar at Brussels Conference
- 08:30 (CA) Canada Feb Avg Weekly Earnings: 3.0%e v 2.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export data
- 08:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 350Ke v 352K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.060Me v 3.068M prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Global Economic Indicator: 0.8%e v 3.2% prior
- 09:30 (US) Weekly Commercial Paper stats
- 10:00 (US) Tsy Sec Lew at hearing on 2014 Defense budget
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 10:30 (BR) Brazil to sell 2013, 2015 and 2017 Bills
- 11:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel with Slovenia President Pahor in Berlin
- 11:00 (EU) European Medicines Agency releases Safety Decisions
- 11:00 (FR) Former French President Sarkozy Speaks at Canadian BoT
- 11:00 (US) Apr Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: -1e v -5 prior
- 11:30 (GR) Greece Cabinet meeting
- 12:00 (CA) Canada Dep PM Shugart speaks at CD Howe Institute
- 12:00 (IE) Ireland Dep PM Gilmore speaks at Brussels Think Tank
- 12:00 (FR) France Mar Net Change Jobseekers: +25.0Ke v +18.4K prior; Total Jobseekers: 3.213Me v 3.188M prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29B in 7-Year Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Mar Industrial Production M/M: No est v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.1%e v -4.4% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Mar Shop Center Sales Y/Y: No est v 4.4% prior
- 17:00 (KR) South Korea Apr SK Consumer Confidence: No est v 104 prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan Mar National CPI Y/Y: No est v -0.7% prior; CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y: No est v -0.3% prior
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Interest Rate Decision
- (US)Senate vote on online sales tax

 

 

 

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