Friday April 26, 2013 - 03:38:37 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 26-Apr-2013 -0337 GMT
Nifty (5916.30, +79.40, +227.49): Backed by positive global cues the Nifty moved up very strongly on the F&O expiry day. Looks bullish, but can see some profit-taking near 5940-5970. Supports have shifted higher to 5830-5850.
Nikkei (13905.20, -20.83, -0.15%): Trades a little lower. It saw a high near 14000 yesterday and may consolidate before it resumes the uptrend. Buying area can emerge around 13600.
Shanghai (2188.64, -10.57, -0.48%): Has opened 10 points lower. The index is getting close to an important support zone of 2175. Resistance comes in at 2225-2250.
DAX (7832.86, +73.83, +0.95%): Strong and surprising close above 7800. Some Resistance seen near 7900. Good Support at 7700-7625. Looks consolidative now with a bullish bias. .
Dow Jones (14700.80, +24.50, +0.17%): The index is very critically poised now with 14600-14650 as the very important short term support zone. Breach below this on a closing basis can take the index down to 14300. Upsides looks to face resistance at 14780-14900.
Gold (1,476.80, +14.80, +1.01%): Gold closed higher yesterday. The upward retracement now faces strong resistance around 1480. Meaningful support stands in at 1398.
Silver (24.320, +0.180): Has surprised with an upmove yesterday. We were hoping for a break on the downside. Resistances now have shifted higher to 25.2 and support comes in at 23.
Brent (102.97, -0.44, -0.43%): Has closed higher and very close to the supply area of 103. It is quiet likely that this resistance zone will get respected going forward. Supports are much lower around 98.2.
Copper (3.253): Copper too has shown strong moves in the last two trading sessions. This up move has shifted the trading range higher between 3.15 and 3.30.
The Euro (1.3038) failed to rise past 1.31 but continues to consolidate between 1.31-30. The charts are neither very bearish nor very bullish for now. Dollar-Yen (98.65) is seeing profit-taking ahead of the BOJ Meeting, unable to rise past 100 yet. This makes it vulnerable to a fall towards 97.80. The Euro-Yen Cross (128.75) has also come off a bit from 130 and is in some danger of seeing a dip towards 127.75-50.
We note that Dollar-Swiss (0.9430) is remaining below the crucial Resistance at 0.95 for now. While so, there would be chances of a dip towards 0.93 and lower. And while so, it might difficult for Euro-Dollar to decline too much either.
The Pound (1.5470) has risen on good Q1 GDP (+0.30% against expectation +0.1%) easing fears of prolonged recession. Look for a further rise towards 1.5575. The Aussie (1.0325) has seen a good bounce this week and can rise towards 1.0375-0400 while above Support at 1.0285. The rise in Gold (1475) and Crude have been more than our expectation and seem to be helping the Aussie.
The Singapore Dollar (1.2362) has seen good strength since yesterday with the USDSGD coming down from 1.2436. The Brazilian Real (1.9991) has also gained with the USBRL coming down from the 200-day MA near 1.0230 over the last couple of days. This might be good news for the Rupee (54.2250) which continues to be ranged between 53.75-54.50 for now.
Bank of Japan meeting underway. Market understandably expects an inflation forecast of 2%+. ECB Meeting due next week, Thursday. Market making noise about a possible rate cut, the chances of which cannot be denied. Full expectations for a 25bp Repo rate cut by the RBI next week, from the current 7.50%. The 10-Yr GOI trades near 7.77%. The trend is down targeting 7.60%.
The German-US 10Yr Spread (-0.49%) has come down a bit more towards -0.50% as suggested yesterday. Italian and Spanish 10-Yr (4.06% and 4.29% respectively) are consolidating after their big fall recently. The bond market signals are mixed for the Euro.
5:07 GMT or 10:37 IST BOJ Meeting
...Expected <0.10 % ...Previous <0.10 %
12:30 GMT or 18:00 IST US GDP
...Expected 3.00 ...Previous 0.38
...Actual 0.30 % ...Previous -0.30 %
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