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Friday April 26, 2013 - 10:51:46 GMT
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TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Italy's 6-month Bill Yield hits record low; markets eye US Q1 Advanced GDP data

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Italy's 6-month Bill Yield hits record low; markets eye US Q1 Advanced GDP data
Fri, 26 Apr 2013 5:35 AM EST

***Notes/Observations***
- (JP) BOJ left its Target Rate Range unchanged between 0.0-0.1% (as expected); vote was unanimous; No member proposed additional easing action; JPY currency strengthens
- Italy PDL official Berusconi: No real problems to form govt lead by PM Letta
- Italy sells 6-month Bills with an Avg Yield of 0.503% (EMU record low)
- Focus will be on the US Q1 GDP which is expected to show 3% annualized growth. The question is whether this figure is already baked into market expectations


***Economic Data***
- (SG) Singapore Mar Industrial Production M/M: 6.2% v 7.1%e; Y/Y: -4.1% v -3.0%e

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Apr 22nd (RUB): 7.65T v 7.53T prior
- (DE) Germany Mar Import Price Index M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -2.3% v -2.3%e
- (FI) Finland Q1 House Prices: +0.7% v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.7% prior
- (FR) France Apr Consumer Confidence: 84 v 83e
- (HU) Hungary Mar Unemployment Rate: 11.8% v 11.7%e
- (CH) Swiss Apr KOF Swiss Leading Indicator: 1.02 v 0.98e
- (EU) ECB: 2.0B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. 5.30B prior; 111.5B parked in deposit facility vs. 114.1B prior
- (SE) Sweden Apr Consumer Confidence: 5.2 v 3.9e; Manufacturing Confidence: -8 v -9e; Economic Tendency Survey: 94.1 v 96.1e
- (SE) Sweden Mar Trade Balance (SEK): 6.8B v 7.1B prior
- (SE) Sweden Mar Household Lending Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.6%e
- (TW) Taiwan Mar Leading Index M/M: 0.4 v 0.5% prior; Coincident Index M/M: -0.3% v -0.2% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.7% v 3.0%e; M3 three-month Avg: 3.0% v 3.2%e
- (GR) Greece Central Bank: Mar Greece household and business bank deposits 164.1B vs. 164.0B m/m

Fixed Income
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sells 8.0B vs. 8.0B indicated in 6-month Bills ; Avg Yield: 0.503% (EMU record low)v 0.831% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.40x v 1.64x prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

***Equities***
FTSE 100 -0.50% at 6,408,
DAX -0.50% at 7,790, CAC-40 -1.2% at 3,796, IBEX-35 -1.1% at 8,274, FTSE MIB -0.70% at 16,527, SMI -0.60% at 7,855, S&P 500 Futures -0.30% at 1,577

- European equity markets are broadly lower, as disappointing bank earnings have once again weighed on the Spanish IBEX-35. Also equities have declined, amid the rise being seen in Italian sovereign bond yields. In terms of the ongoing ECB rate cut speculation, official Asmussen (Germany) reiterated that the impact of further rate cuts would be limited. European corporate earnings have been mixed. BASF reported better than expected results, while Spain's BBVA's earnings missed analyst expectations. Total's quarterly earnings were in line and PPR's sales missed analyst expectations. Additionally, Alcatel-Lucent swung to a loss in Q1. European banks are mostly lower, led by German banks. The decline in copper prices has weighed on resource related firms. Looking ahead, traders are expected to focus on Q1 GDP data out of the US, which is due to be released later today. US companies due to report earnings later today include Goodyear Tire, Lazard and Tyco International.

- UK movers [Colt Telecom -2% (Q1 sales declined y/y), Standard Life -1.5% (CFO resigned)]
- Germany [BASF +2.5% (Q1 results above ests); Loewe -32% (Q1 loss widened), SGL Carbon -1.5% (cut FY sales forecast)]
- France movers [PPR -5.5% (Q1 sales below ests), Alcatel-Lucent -2% (Reported Q1 loss), EADS -1.5% (share placement), Vivendi -1% (broker commentary), Total -1% (Q1 production declined y/y)]
- Spain movers [BBVA -1.5% (Q1 profits below ests as provisions rose)]
- Switzerland movers [Bucher +3.5% (reaffirmed forecast)]
- The Netherlands movers [USG -2.5% (Q1 results below ests)]

Speakers:
- ECB's Asmussen (Germany) commented that the road to recovery to remained uneven but was important to understand that ECB had already done enough
. He did believe that Euro would emerge stronger from the crisis but delay in fiscal consolidation was not a free lunch. He reiterated that OMT has helped normalize funding conditions. He noted that an interest rate cut impact was limited for EMU periphery and that rates too low for too long could eventually lead to distortions. ECB cannot target unemployment and return on bank lending hinged on balance sheet repair
- ECB's Provopoulos (Greece)commented that worst of debt crisis was over, ECB might never need to use OMT bond-buying program. Europe was making good progress in rebalancing its economy and growth could come sooner if reforms were maintained
- Italy's Berlusconi commented that the PDL party had no real problems to form govt lead by PM Letta as he was encouraged after Letta meeting. Berlusconi did rule out joining the cabinet
- SNB's Jordan reiterated it would enforce the floor with the upmost determination; too early relax its guard
- Japan BOJ's Semi Annual Outlook on Economic Activity upgraded its FY14/15 CORE CPI forecast to 1.4% vs. 1.5%e and extended GDP/CPI forecast period by 1 year (as speculated). The BOJ forecasted FY15/16 Core CPI +1.9% (ex affect of expected sales tax increase) and raised its GDP growth outlook for FY13/14 and FY14/15 to +2.9% and +1.4% respectively (from +2.3% and +0.8%)
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) Gov Kuroda post rate decision press conference stated that it would keep easing until stable 2% inflation target was achieved. He noted that there were no discussions at today's meeting for further policy easing at this time. Board members Sato and Kiuchi dissented to forecast Japan will see 2% inflation towards Mar 2016. Assumed many members saw 2% inflation in early stage of fiscal 2015. Kuroda had no comment on whether Yen correction was over or would continue but the easing was having impact on portfolio rebalancing, stock prices and bank lending already reflected effects. He was not expecting rise in nominal long-term interest rates anytime soon and had no political press to extend forecast period by 1 year. He did expect Japanese govt to create proper fiscal reform plan by mid-year.
- Japan PM Govt advisor Honda commented that Japan would achieve the 2% price target and BOJ would ease further if not met. Hyperinflation was not a realistic outcome from BOJ easing. JPY currency weakness due to a correction from over-appreciation
- Japan Vice Fin Min Nakao: Fx intervention for excessive moves cannot be ruled out
- North Korea rejected South Korea offer on discussing reopening the Kaesong industrial park
- South Korea Ministry stated that it would pull out all remaining workers from Kaesong Industrial zone in North Korea

Currencies:
- The JPY was firmer in the session after the BOJ left its Target Rate Range unchanged and noted that no members proposed any additional easing action.
The USD/JPY pair tested 98.22 in the aftermath of the decision and making the parity level in the pair more elusive at this time.
- In Europe market participants now generally expect a refi rate cut from the ECB next week. The EUR/USD remained locked within its weekly range and holding above the 1.30 handle. Dealers noted that Asian reserve management flows have been relatively heavy.
- Dealers noted that the recent GBP strength on GDP might run a little further, but big picture still little changed The +0.3% Q1 advance reading only negated the -0.3% Q4 final reading. Additionally some dealers had concerns that the data would be revised down when more March weather affected data was available.
- China's yuan rose to a new record high against the USD after the central bank guided the yuan fixing to a surprisingly strong new high for the second consecutive session
- Focus will be on the US Q1 GDP which is expected to show 3% annualized growth. The question is whether this figure is already baked into market expectations

Political/In the Papers:
- (EU) Germany's Bundesbank objects to OMT opinion for the high court and is preparing for the German Constitutional Court - Germany press; The opinion challenges the OMT on the grounds that it would undermine the constitutional independence of the ECB and undermine its ability to deliver price stability in the eurozone.
-(EU) ECB's Constancio (Portugal): Financial market sentiment remains fragile; Better market conditions not reflected in economy - comments from Brussels Single Market Conference
- (EU) Former ECB official Bini-Smaghi: ECB rate cut next week wouldn't hurt - financial press; Steps by other central banks are a challenge for the ECB.
- (EU) Goldman Sachs analysts now forecast a 25bps cut in refi rate by ECB in May; Goldman also cuts forecast for 2013 Euro Zone GDP to -0.7% from -0.5%
- (US) Fed's Bernanke: There are alternatives to LIBOR that need to be examined, weak points are still present in the US financial system - FSOC testimony
- (US) US Fed said to be scrutinizing largest US banks to ensure ability to handle rate increases - financial press
- USD/JPY: (JP) Japanese investors have accelerated the pace at which they are repatriating funds - Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

***Looking Ahead***
***All times listed for economic events are denominated in Eastern Standard Time (Add 4 hours for GMT equivalent)
- 06:00 (EU) ECB:3-Year LTRO Repayments
- 06:00 (NO) Norway Central Bank Gov Olsen
- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Mar Retail Sales M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.0% prior
- 06:10 (UK) DMO to sell combined 2.0B in 1-month, three-month and 6-month Bills
- 06:30 (US) Daily Libor Fixing
- 07:00 (ES) Spain updates deficit targets
- 07:00 (EU) European Medicines Agency Releases Drug Approvals
- 07:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Meeting Minutes
- 07:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Apr 12th
- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Manufacturing PPI M/M: No est v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.7% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Advanced GDP Q/Q Annualized: 3.0%e v 0.4% prior; Personal Consumption: 2.8%e v 1.8% prior
- 08:30 (US) Q1 Advanced GDP Price Index: 1.3%e v 1.0% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 1.1%e v 1.0% prior
- 09:00 (MX) Mexico Mar Preliminary Trade Balance: No est v $46.1M prior
- 09:30 (EU) ECB member Nowotny (Austria) in Prague
- 09:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 2.384T prior; M/M: No est v 0.7% prior; Private Banks Lending: No est v 1.231T prior; Personal Loan Default Rate: No est v 7.7% prior
- 09:55 (US) Apr Final University of Michigan Confidence: 73.5e v 72.3 prelim
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank (Banamex) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Rate unchanged at 4.00%

- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.75-3.50B in Notes
- 12:00 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy
- (CO) Colombia Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Overnight Lending Rate unchanged at 3.25%
- (ES) Spain Cabinet meeting on competiveness and flexibility
- (US) President Obama Hosts Jordan King Abdullah
- (IC) Iceland Holds Parliamentary Elections

 

 

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 16 Nov
01:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Retail Sales
10:00 EZ- final HICP
14:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 17 Nov
13:30 CA- Retail Sales, CPI
13:30 US- Housing Starts and Permits

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Wed -- 20:30 GMT AU- Employment data.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu -- 09:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Thu -- 10:00 GMT EZ- final HICP. ECB targets inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu -- NY Morning US- Import Prices, Philly Fed, Industrial, Production, NAHB. Usually not major movers.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium Fri -- 13:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits.



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